The notion and likelihood of Coalition one-term governments

by Ray Dixon (disclosure – I’m not exactly a lover of the Libs)

Iain wouldn’t dare post this but I bet he has read it and is still (((shakin’ his head))) at the prospect of Campbell Newman’s LNP government in Queensland becoming a one-term government despite being swept to power just two years ago with a massive 78 to 7 seats majority:

Queensland poll foreshadows heavy losses for Newman Government at next state election

Queensland Premier Campbell Newman and more than half his MPs face losing their seats at next year’s election, a poll suggests.

A ReachTEL poll of voters commissioned by The Sunday Mail and the Seven Network indicated that up to 40 of the Liberal National Party’s (LNP) 73 sitting members could be voted out, reports based on the poll said.

Of almost 1900 Queenslanders asked which of the two main parties would get their vote, 51 per cent chose the LNP and 49 per cent said Labor.

The result suggested an 11.8 per cent swing against the government at the next poll, meaning Labor would win 40 LNP seats, and possibly office.

On primary votes, 38.7 per cent of those polled said they would vote for the LNP, compared with 34.4 per cent for Labor.

The poll showed Clive Palmer’s popularity continuing to rise after 15.4 per cent indicated they would vote for the Palmer United Party.

The Premier’s popularity had slipped further, with 53.1 per cent rating his performance poor or very poor.

The LNP catapulted into power in 2012 after winning 78 seats to Labor’s seven in a landslide victory.

Support for the party has since eroded amid public service job cuts, controversial law reforms and plans to sell assets.

Comment:

Okay, it might be a long way to go and the likelihood that the ALP could regain office in QLD after just one term in Opposition – and from the seemingly hopeless position of having just 7 sitting MPs in a house of 85 – is the stuff of comeback fairy tales, but I reckon there’s no doubt that they’ll make up heaps of ground.

This has wider ramifications than just Queensland though. I think it says a lot about the electorate and their views of how the various Coalition governments around the country have performed/behaved themselves in recent years since regaining office.

Here in Victoria it’s almost certain that the Coalition will be bundled out later this year after just one term in office. After being accidentally elected in 2010 by just one seat. After Baillieu bailed from the job he never wanted and handed the poisoned chalice of Liberal leadership to Denis ‘the racing man’s friend’ Napthine, a relic of the past who surprised us all by still actually being in Parliament. We all thought he’d left long ago but no, there he was, still lurking on the backbenches and still living in the past. The bumbling yesterday man Denis Napthine is gone already and there is no way known his do-nothing-except-favours-for-developers Coalition will be given another term.

Then there is the Federal sphere with Tony Abbott who has managed to erode a great deal of popular support after little more than half a year in the job. His first budget and subsequent meaner-than-Scrooge announcements and proposals to hurt the young, the old, the poor, the disabled, the sick, families and anyone else who has less than a few million bucks or so in assets, will stay with him right through to the next election and ensure (at the very least) that he’ll face a tough job getting term number two.

It’s feasible that we could see 3 Coalition one-term governments going in consecutive years:

Napthine in Victoria in 2014 – a certainty to be voted out.

Newman in Queensland in 2015 – could be very embarrassing, and

Abbott in Canberra in 2016 – probably more likely than Newman losing.

My money’s on the Coalition losing at least two out of three.

Well done guys. Well done Australia – you got the governments you deserved, now go and get the ones you need.