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Earlier I have been suggesting that the whole Push by Conroy to reshape the media landscape was a convenient smokescreen intended to distract attention form the leadership woes of Julia Gillard and now this morning we have Peter Harcher of the Age making precisely the same claim but with the added flavour of his contacts within the Labor party.
But there is another explanation, too. ”Conroy’s view has been that the media stuff isn’t the worst thing in the world, and it’ll distract from leadership speculation and get us through to the end of next week,” says a senior Labor figure. ”Gillard’s entire world is an inside game,” of how to hold the leadership against any Kevin Rudd recrudescence.
The end of next week? That’s the last time Parliament sits before the budget, the last time the caucus will be together in one place, the last time there will be a venue and opportunity for any leadership challenge before the budget.
But Rudd is resolutely sticking to his pledge that he will not challenge again. This is frustrating some of his more determined supporters, but he is proving immovable.
Without any challenge, the onus for change rests with the senior Labor members who, until now, have been Gillard supporters. A delegation to tell her to resign, like the one that gave the same message to Bob Hawke in 1991, is widely mooted. Messy, unpleasant, and, so far, no volunteers.
- Gillard camp denies leadership spill (dailytelegraph.com.au)
- PM has to go, urges Rudd camp (smh.com.au)
- Without dignity all is lost for Labor (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Gillard and Rudd camps deny leadership spill on the cards (3aw.com.au)
- ALP anarchy reaches breaking point (dailytelegraph.com.au)
- The great wall of Chinese Rudd fans (dailytelegraph.com.au)
- Rudd should be given ministry: Latham (abc.net.au)
- Gillard regains preferred PM title: Newspoll (abc.net.au)
- Labor and Gillard losing support: poll (news.theage.com.au)
- ALP ‘faces massacre under Julia Gillard’ (bigpondnews.com)
If there is one certainty in this country it is the simple fact that The Fairfax press will always give any Labor government the benefit of the doubt for far longer than it will do for any Coalition administration. Its just what we expect from them because most of their journos are sympathetic to leftist thinking and ideology. Thus when you have a lead story suggesting that Gillard resign from the Prime Minister position then things must be really crook with the government:
Some how though I doubt that Gillard will go with any dignity, that she is capable of making the ultimate sacrifice for the sake of the party. She is just arrogant enough to think that her losing face by resigning would be less preferable than leading the party into the blazing guns of a well disciplined opposition who are not in the mood for showing any mercy to a government as bad and incompetent as her administration.
One can only think that Gillard is imagining this poem,
Cannon to right of them,
Cannon to left of them,
Cannon behind them
Volley’d and thunder’d;
Storm’d at with shot and shell,
While horse and hero fell,
They that had fought so well
Came thro’ the jaws of Death
Back from the mouth of Hell,
All that was left of them,
Left of six hundred.
and imagining that she will be redeemed in a political afterlife as one of the glorious dead who went down fighting. We are not however any longer in the age of Alfred, Lord Tennyson where we glory in the noble but stupid and pointless sacrifice. We are in an age of pragmatic politics where we expect that the sacrifice for the greater good should be as bloodless as possible. Of course I agree with Fairfax press insofar s they are suggesting that Gillard has used up all of her electoral good will frankly it no longer matters how she tries to present her self, no matter what sort contortions she tries hers is a lost cause and she can only drag the entire party down further with each extra day she stays in the lodge.
Ray must be just as despairing as all of the all the other ALP tragics at this point in time because even Kevin “I’m here to help” Rudd will lack the power to retain office at the election. You see I used to think that Rudd “could save the furniture” but now I’m not so sure, because the party brand has been so tainted by the Gillard crew that even many of their “true believers” will either vote for Abbott or, as I think more likely, just abstain by making an informal vote on September.
Of course the coffin makers union are delighted at the prospects of such a large surge in business from the Labor light brigade but they are , like so many unions, being short sighted and self focused because for the sake of our democracy we do actually need two parties who are both relatively competent in government and who will deliver to the people good governance and sound administration and the real tragedy of the Gillard government is that they have demonstrated that the ALP are not only unfit to govern but also that they are also not going to be capable of providing a respectable or credible opposition for a a very long time either.
- Rudd is Labor’s last chance (theage.com.au)
- Poll a ‘wake-up call’ (smh.com.au)
- Labor pains? Up pops Rudd (smh.com.au)
- Our new preferred PM (smh.com.au)
- Labor, Gillard slip in latest Nielsen poll (abc.net.au)
- ‘Just let it wash through’ (theage.com.au)
- Milne dumps Gillard in preparation for an Abbott government (theconversation.edu.au)
- Ministers call for unity after bad poll (news.theage.com.au)
- Labor is all about workers, Gillard says (news.theage.com.au)
- Gillard calls on unions as polls plunge (abc.net.au)
In Poker they are called “tells” those little micro behaviors that give away the true standing of the other players’ hands and there are many tells from the Labor card sharps that things are pretty dire in the cards that they have left to play. Sadly for the ever more disillusioned true believers its obvious that having Gillard as the major card holder will see them banished from the table without a stake to play again anytime soon. with the latest polling seeing the Labor chances making that mythical snowflake on holiday in Hades seem very very enduring indeed. I have no doubt that their next move will be to go for the all in bet of restoring Rudd to the lodge. There is however one problem with all in bets and that is the very real chance that others at the table will know that you are bluffing…
To be honest I can’t see how Rudd will make any substantial difference to Labor ‘s impending doom. Its rather like thinking that it will be better to have five bullets to the head is going to be less fatal than six lead injections. Dead is dead and this labor government is in the Zombie zone now no amount of face paint is going to hide that fact.
In the mean time Tony Abbott is looking more and more Prime Ministerial as he goes about the very necessary job of enunciating both the policy and direction that we can expect from his government:
While I have reservations about the emphasis on growth its very clear that he is calm clear and focused while I am certain that an Abbott government will not be perfect I am equally sure that it will be better than the shambolic mob who have been trembling in fear as Julia Gillard’s Kool-aid has been passed around, will they drink deep from that deadly draft or will they instead swallow the bitter brew of Rudd suds? Either way many of the Labor Caucus will need to check out this website sooner rather than later.
I have an eclectic sort of mind so I sometimes see connections in the most unlikely news items. As such I can’t go past today’s announcement that they have definitely identified the remains of Richard III from an archaeological dig beneath a Leicester car park and the new speculation that Rudd may be getting close to the numbers for on final last tilt to wrestle the leadership back from Gillard.
Like the mythology of Richard III, Rudd faces a rather desperate and grim battle not only with in the ranks of his own party , but also against an ascendant opposition that is 12 points ahead in the opinion polls. While my dear friend Ray holds out some hope that Rudd may be able to swing an unlikely win at the election I tend to think that the best that Rudd could hope for may well be a slightly less chastening defeat, now if only he could possibly get someone to give him that horse…
The other news item that has had my imagination in gear has been Campbell Newman’s call for a rethink about the way that we rebuild after natural disasters . To may mind it beggars belief that we have for years rebuilt infrastructure destroyed by flood events in precisely the same place and to the same standard as that which was washed away. The sensible and logical thing to do would be to change the sorts of things that we build and allow in the riverine flood plains upon which so many of our cities and towns are built. This speaking of good sense from Newman resonates with me and I have no doubt that it will resonate with most of my fellow Queenslanders. It helps that we have had two flood events in rather rapid succession and that the latest one has washed away a substantial amount of the repaired infrastructure that has only recently been completed. If only we could more easily follow the example set in Grantham where, under the otherwise woeful Bligh government the whole town was essentially moved to higher ground we might just avoid repeated flood “disasters”. Of course in a rural circumstance it is easier to do when there is both the undeveloped land and fewer people to relocate than is the case in a bigger city or town but isn’t it more sensible to try than to put it into the “too Hard” basket and just hope that the heavens will be kind for a while? The other thing about this disaster and the central role being played by Newman in the coordination of the rebuilding efforts is that it has already banished the negative image of the Queensland premier from our news media. “Newman is governing and doing the job with drive and purpose” has replaced “Newman the sacker” in the minds of the voting public which is bound to blunt any of the so called “Newman factor” that has been been giving hope to the Labor party federally. Which brings us back to the dire situation that vex Labor true believers like Ray. Just what can they do in the face of the impending electoral doom? You could go into total denial like the more rabid left who are so fearful of an Abbott government that they trot out any old tat that convinces them (which is a a low bar to clear) while denying any fault or shortcoming in the Labor government. Its amusing to watch and I even had a bit of fun pointing out the flaws in their arguments but they can’t handle the truth there is a sort of watching a train wreck in Slo-mo quality to the federal government at present and I am at the same time both revolted and delighted by the sound a fury of it all…
- Rudd’s support for a challenge growing (smh.com.au)
- Flood-hit Queenslanders may be moved to higher ground (abc.net.au)
- Numbers shifting back to Rudd (theage.com.au)
- Swan denies withholding disaster funds (bigpondnews.com)
- Relax, says Gillard, it’s not about Rudd (smh.com.au)
- Floods cause havoc in Qld and northern NSW (news.theage.com.au)
- Newman asks voters to plan future of Qld (bigpondnews.com)
Did you all miss me while I spent the last few days in the wet no man’s land disconnected from the world with no power Phone or internet? well I missed youse all!
Anyway Today’s little snippet is the story of the retirement of Robert McClelland from a safe seat no less :
Naturally I can’t help thinking that this will be the first of many “retirement” announcements from labor’s ranks as those members who have known the, err, “pleasures” of life in her majesty’s loyal opposition dread returning to that role after the coming election, Robert McClelland was a Rudd man and that must have had something to do with it as well now that our dear Brother Number One will never attain the primacy again, unless it is in the despair of a devastated post election ALP. Dare I suggest that like all smart rats Robert McClelland knows when the ship is taking on water?
The election dance begins
- Robert McClelland tipped to retire (news.smh.com.au)
- McClelland set to bail out of election (dailytelegraph.com.au)
- Robert McClelland confirms retirement (news.com.au)
- Robert McClelland confirms retirement (news.theage.com.au)
- Libs keen to contest Barton: Abbott (news.theage.com.au)
- McClelland to quit politics at next election (abc.net.au)
The next leader of the opposition, or could Brother Number One rise again from the ashes of a Labor defeat?
Well this comrade has awoken in 2013 in good spirits having had a reasonably (for me) good night’s sleep and as no alcohol passed my lips last night I probably feel a bit better than most hangover sodden creatures this morning. As is my usual practice in the morning I was checking out the mumbling in the Fairfax press when I cam across yet another piece that was off their usual pro Labor message. I know its the silly season but if they keep this sort of thing up they might even be on the road to the sort of situation that sends shivers down the spine of every latte sipper. They might even achieve some more balanced reporting in their opinion pages .
Yes I know that normal transmission will resume shortly but allow me the indulgence of enjoying what is being presented now and the the further indulgence of wondering just who will lead a dispirited, dishevelled and much diminished Labor opposition. I won’t be Gillard or Swan because if either retain their seats they will try to hide from the world on the back bench until they can quietly resign their seats and leave politics. Frankly I think that Combet has all of the charm of a depressive undertaker and Bill Shorten is just a bit too smarmy to be viable. That just leaves that long time favourite of this blog Brother Number One (Rudd). You see I think that he has a big enough ego that he would want to be remembered as the man who twice saved Labor from the electoral wilderness and I also think that he would be up for the challenge because unlike the other contenders he is already on the reserve benches and therefore being leader of the opposition will be a step up rather than down for him.
My Good friend Ray, being a confirmed Ruddite will be delighted, OK maybe not delighted that Labor will have been defeated, but at least hopeful that under the risen Brother Number One Labor will be at least able to see the edge of the wilderness and the path to resurrection. It won’t be much comfort but a small comfort is far better than total despair that will be the lot of so many Labor supporters after the next election.
- The serious stuff dance off (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Voters not so pessimistic: Newspoll (bigpondnews.com)
- Swan on the nose with Press Gallery (dailytelegraph.com.au)
- Gillard promised the world and delivered a handful of nothing (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Union corruption, Gillard and the Labor party (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- The Gillard government, a belief in Santa Claus and the joys of Christmas (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Gillard maps out priorities before polls (bigpondnews.com)
- ‘Aggressive’ tactics used on Gillard (smh.com.au)
- Essential: Labor ends the year well adrift (crikey.com.au)
- Labor ends year with a slight rise: poll (news.theage.com.au)
Ah another day and another report of Labor disunity in the face of the increasingly incompetent Gillard Government.
Really who could blame any ALP MP for thinking of their personal political salvation with Labor’s fortunes sinking by the second under Gillard’s rule?
Of course the real problem for Labor is that if they use the same knives that they dispatched Rudd with then there is a very real chance that Gillard would just resign and bring down the government anyway. Such are the woes of minority government where remaining in office relies upon a nutty coalition of self serving independents, a disgraced ex Labor man and lets not forget the verdant religious zealotry of Adam Bandt as well. I suspect that Only Kevin Rudd is really eager to sip from the poisoned chalice and you know what? He may even save some of the furniture but we know that the nation will not be well governed again until we do away with this government at a proper election and then Labor can spend the time it needs to find itself while it sojourns in the political wilderness.
- Tallarook, Gillard, Rudd, Greece, Spain, Fukushima, Jo Chandler, and the sizzle of snags on a barbie
- Kevin Rudd, and the story of how he could have been the saviour of the nation, again, or not; a season end cliff-hanger for Labor
- Australian Politics – One Day The Labor Government Might Even Do What’s Too Late
- Rudd backers emerge as Gillard fights
- ‘I was dumped for backing Rudd’
Because of two naughty boys in the party a messiah needed to raise Labor from the dead, even it makes them into political zombies
I reckon that the toughest political gig at present is the one one of the common man who supports the Labor party Its damn tough having to find reasons to endorse or explain the policies of party that is doing so badly in the opinion of the public that Ivan Millat is close to being considered more trustworthy than the current PM. Ok, sarcasm aside, we may well be on the cusp of that Rudd revival that Ray has been banging on about for ages as even the Canberra press gallery has turned on Gillard and even the carrot of “compensation” for the hated carbon tax that is greater than the expected price rises won’t give Gillard any electoral joy. Anyway Ray may like this scenario of a Rudd revival published today.
Can it work to win government at the next election?
Personally I don’t think that it would claw back that much trust and faith of the former true believers but it may give just enough of them enough hope that they don’t totally abandon the party and deliver a Queensland like thrashing to the federal party. As wise and audacious as this plan may be I suspect that those currently at the tiller of the Labor party are too arrogant and too stupid to do what is necessary to stop their party ending up a total unelectable wreck for a generation at least.
- When will Rudd return?
- Backing for Gillard’s party at near record low of 27%
- Labor fighting for survival as numbers dive
- Sharks are beginning to circle | thetelegraph.com.au
- Julia and Kevin face the Borg while having Tribbles with the electorate
- The problems with Labor
- Sould Bill Shorten be on suicide watch?