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As I have felt for a while I see Labor federally following the same script as the Bligh government exited under up here in Queensland. If I may be as bold as to suggest that the land slid will be of the same sort of magnitude as well and if that is the case it will take the greatest type of discipline for an Abbot government to resit the call of hubris and over reach, however I think that Abbott has a real desire to retain office for a long time and I hope that desire will steady his hand far more than closer numbers in the parliament would.
Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.
Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent as Mr Abbott spent much of last week campaigning against minority government, ruling out doing a deal with the Greens and challenging Mr Rudd to follow.
On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.
Labor is now facing a four-point swing away from it since the last election, which would cost the government at least 14 seats if the poll were held now and the swing was uniform across the nation.
The latest Newspoll had a larger sample size and the margin of error, normally three points, dropped to just more than two points, giving greater accuracy.
Acknowledging Labor’s dire position in the polls, Finance Minister and campaign spokeswoman Penny Wong said yesterday that if the election had been held on Saturday, “Mr Abbott would be prime minister”.
While polls in specific seats have shown big swings against Labor, the worst trend for the government has been a sharp decline in the popularity of Mr Rudd and counter-rise for Mr Abbott.
Voter satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped four points to 35 per cent, and dissatisfaction jumped six points, to 54 per cent – the worst personal support Mr Rudd has ever had as prime minister and just below when he was dumped three years ago.
Since Mr Rudd’s high point in voter support after his return in the first week of last month – 43 per cent satisfaction and 36 per cent dissatisfaction – voter satisfaction has fallen steadily by eight points and dissatisfaction has jumped 18 points.
Mr Rudd’s net satisfaction rating is -19, compared with +7 at the beginning of last month.
Cheers Comrade Yale
- Labor support plummets in latest Newspoll (news.theage.com.au)
- Labor at a new low in Newspoll (bigpondnews.com)
- Labor losing ground in key NSW marginals, PM Kevin Rudd’s popularity nosediving: poll (abc.net.au)
- Newspoll puts Labor at a new low (bigpondnews.com)
- Satisfaction with Rudd slipping (bigpondnews.com)
- A great headline in the Australian! (territoryhawk.wordpress.com)
- Rudd support slips in poll (smh.com.au)
- Support for Rudd takes a hit: Newspoll (news.com.au)
The News-poll this morning is even worse for Labor than even I expected:
JULIA Gillard’s personal standing has crashed to a 19-month low and Tony Abbott is clearly back in front as the nation’s preferred prime minister after Labor’s “appalling” two weeks of political and policy failure.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, Labor’s primary vote has slumped five points to a disastrous 30 per cent after a fortnight that ended with the aborted leadership spill and mass cabinet resignations, with one in two voters now siding with the Coalition.
The collapse in the Labor vote has completely wiped out the party’s recovery in the second half of last year and has entrenched the prospect of a landslide vote against the government in the election scheduled for September 14.
After taking into account preference flows, federal Labor’s support is eight percentage points below its level at the 2010 election, at 42 per cent – a swing that if replicated in September would remove about 30 Labor MPs, including at least five ministers.
This can only be described as a electoral Tsunami and Ray’s 25% primary vote seems possible now . just imagine what it will be in September.
Over the last couple of months the usual suspects have been rather heartened by Labor’s improved position in the esteem of the voting public which has seen them standing stronger because they have obviously thought that Labor had the smallest hope of being returned at the next election, A perfect example of travelling in hope I suppose the latest news poll however will give them a reason to be depressed again though.
I just makes me think that maybe this should be Labor’s theme song:
I know what Julia wants for Christmas but her problem is that the voting Santas have mostly put Julia on the Naughty list and that means a lump of coal rather than the present of their vote….
- Labor’s stocks reverse in Newspoll (bigpondnews.com)
- Who polished Craig Thomson’s Knob? (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Union corruption, Gillard and the Labor party (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Labor ‘rorting’ the electoral roll- Pyne (bigpondnews.com)
- What would happen if Labor won the next election? (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Woman In Labor Votes First, Then Heads To Hospital (chicago.cbslocal.com)
- Labor’s stock slides in latest Newspoll (news.com.au)
- Gillard hit on trust in poll slump (dailytelegraph.com.au)
Another opinion poll and yet more disappointment for my good friends from the left in particular those who support the Loopy Greens must be most disappointed to see that the support for their party has dropped down into single digit figures which supports my contention that as a party their support has well and truly peaked. The report in today’s Oz lays it out for all to see.
It also seems to me that those who were seeing the previous improvement in Labor’s polling as a turning of the tide are most likely entirely wrong. Gillard is still in line for an absolute thrashing at the next election and I can’t see that her very big on aspiration but very light on for credibility education policy is going to help things along for the dark-side either. Oh I am sure that it may play well to the far left inverse snobbery mob who resent any money at all going to private schools. The fact that all of Labor’s scheme is unfunded and not due to start for years into the future just screams “spin” composed entirely of smoke and mirrors. Labor is still going to lose the next election, and lose significantly. Will their fell good attempts to showcase make much difference?
Hmm on the current trends they may save the odd chair or two but they are still likely to be sleeping on the floor after the next election.
Its all good Comrades
- Labor momentum stalls in latest Newspoll (news.theage.com.au)
- Gillard stuck in rut as Rudd battle looms large again (smh.com.au)
- Why education matters (politically): it’s Gillard’s last hope (crikey.com.au)
- Poll gives Labor glimmer of hope (smh.com.au)
- Julia Gillard, Naughty in the nineties? (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Labor lift, coalition steady in Newspoll (news.theage.com.au)
- Worst is over for Labor, says PM (smh.com.au)
- No carbon tax lift for ALP – Newspoll (bigpondnews.com)
The Gillard government has announced a new dental scheme and of course they just had to make sure that I knew all about it :
I’m not sure if I’m proud of this announcement at all to be honest, I am concerned that what seems like a worthwhile benefit to the community is unfunded and not due to start until after the next election. So this thing falls very much into the election promises arena and it would be very remiss of me to remind readers of another election promise from Labor…
So the question is can we believe this one?
On their record I think not.
I feel sorry for those people of the left who really wanted Gillard to succeed, even if the only reason that they have now is that Julia is not Tony. Even if they are wilfully blind to the failures of this government and they insist on not seeing the bus loaded with electoral explosives across the tracks towards which the Labor train is speeding towards at full throttle. When it happens it will be a very big bang indeed and the carnage will be far from pretty to add insult to injury Gillard herself may end up retaining her seat and you can bet that if she does that she won’t stay in the parliament in the wake of such a humiliating defeat so the party will be humiliated again at the subsequent by-election.
Well there is some good news for your common or garden variety Labor tragic and it is that the party has a plan:
Now if only they had had a plan for good government rather than the spectacular implosion that back-flipping on that infamous “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead” promise maybe then the true believers would have reason for hope rather than despair at this point in time but as it stands now I fear that there is no hope for Labor in government and even less reasons to believe that they will learn the lessons of the failure with the urgency that their thrashing should inspire.
- Labor The Next Generation (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Julia Gillard, the self inflicted wedgie and advertising buggery (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Gillard puts reform ahead of popularity (news.theage.com.au)
- Flopping fish, the Rudd revival show, and the spectres of the past present and the future (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Gillard’s “Climatechoices” begins today (iainhall.wordpress.com)
Its strange just how much we rely upon the the Internet and how much we miss it when it won’t work. I mention this because when I come home from shopping yesterday our connection was down and as I needed to do a search for a particular piece of information it was actaully rather annoying. Thankfully I now know what I need to know and can finish the task I have to complete.
That said this morning I was rather amused by the way that the Age is trying to counter the very bad poll result for the government by once again tiring to raise the ghost of Workchoices.
Of course the interesting polling result that they are trying very hard to do the bait and switch on is this one:
Now which is a more important story on this winter morning? that our PM is less preferred in her position than Tony Abbott? or that a disgruntled aspirant to the Liberal party presidency still thinks that there should be I R reform? Its the choice between a “dead buried and cremated “policy and a political Zombie in the Lodge as far as I can see and the villagers just can’t wait to light their torches for the procession to vanquish the demon
The Australian Newspaper has done another one of its polls and guess what Brother Number One and his government have lost the lead in two party preferred terms.
Mr Rudd’s previous standing as being seen to be “decisive and strong” also fell significantly, and for the first time since the election Labor lost its lead over allcomers as the preferred party to handle climate change.
For the first time in Mr Rudd’s prime ministership, an opposition leader is seen clearly as being stronger and more decisive than Mr Rudd, and Tony Abbott is considered almost equal with the Prime Minister in his grasp of major policy issues.
After weeks of dramatic policy reversals and broken promises, culminating last week in Mr Rudd’s decision to put off his Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme until at least 2013, the government’s primary vote has plunged eight percentage points to just 35 per cent. The Coalition’s primary support has risen three points to 43 per cent.
Most of Labor’s lost vote appears to have gone to “others and independents” rather than to the Coalition or the Greens.
According to the latest Newspoll, taken last weekend exclusively for The Australian and polling almost 1200 voters, the extraordinary shifts in the primary vote mean the two-party-preferred support for Labor has dropped to 49 per cent while the Coalition’s has risen from 46 to 51 per cent. The ALP won the last election with a two-party-preferred vote of 52.7 to 47.3 per cent. A swath of seats would fall in an election with a swing of just 1 per cent either way, and the Coalition needs to win about seven seats to win the election.
That membership of the One Term Club is looking more and more like a sure thing, but of course you can never be certain of these things with someone as dedicated to staying in office as our dear Brother Number One. He will try almost anything, as the recent announcements on tax show. That little bit of business was just more slight of hand intended to show his left wing supporters that he is still with the program of attacking the rich to give to the “poor”. He clearly hopes that the tax issue will join the health reforms as generators of a very large smoke screen to hide the fact that he has been doing some incredible political gymnastics of late.
In England the election is tomorrow and I very much look forward to seeing a change of government there after 13 years of Labour government but it seems to me that in this country being on the nose with the electorate has taken a great deal less time…