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The Great ‘Green Dream’ and how voting for the ALP will put Abbott in (by … you guessed it)

It does not get any clearer below

Some times you just need to let something speak for itself.

As they say “stupidity is its own parody”.

I bring you Jeremys take on “how to vote” :

How voting ALP could help Abbott

You may have heard me say that it’s impossible for your progressive vote to end up helping the conservatives. Turns out I was wrong. There is a scenario in which your voting ALP or Green could inadvertently end up helping the Liberals.

I know you’ll be expecting this to be long and complicated, but it’s actually quite easy to explain.

How it “could” happen

In amongst both the Green and ALP first preference votes, are some people who preference the Liberals ahead of the alternative progressive party. ALP voters who put the Liberals above the Greens; Greens voters who put the Liberals above the ALP.

As long as that party is not eliminated, those Coalition votes stay locked in for the “left” side of politics (for the sake of this discussion, I’m going to pretend that the ALP counts as “left”).

But, when that party is eliminated, that subset of their votes would flow straight back to the Coalition and, in a very unlikely set of circumstances, could conceivably see the conservative candidate elected over the remaining “left” one.

How to avoid it happening

So – if you want to keep the Coalition out, and are worried about this tiny possibility of inadvertently helping them, then how should you vote? Well, you should vote to keep in for as long as possible the “left” party with the higher proportion of conservative votes hidden within it.

As it happens, the vast majority of ALP voters simply follow the ALP ticket, which – like the Greens one – usually puts the Coalition down the bottom. In contrast, Greens voters are much more independent-minded and less likely to follow such cards or tickets and – even according to the recent ALP campaign against them – that includes some 20% of so who have come from the Coalition wanting change. I’m not sure what those probably small l liberal Coalition voters expect from the Greens – other than opposition to the unworkable internet filter, government out of people’s bedrooms and a realistic approach to climate change – but the fact is, there are probably more, in proportion, Coalition votes locked up in the Greens’ vote than the ALP’s.

Which means that if you vote ALP instead of Greens, and the Greens are eliminated, and some of those votes flow back to the Coalition, you could find that your ALP vote in fact inadvertently helps elect a Liberal. That’s more likely than the “a vote for the Greens helps the Liberals scenario”, in which your Green vote gets the ALP eliminated first and frees the proportionally fewer* ALP/Coalition votes to go to the Liberals.

A silly thing to worry about

Of course, in reality the likelihood of the small number of Coalition preferences hidden in Greens and ALP votes actually electing a Liberal is tiny – particularly given that far more of those votes will flow straight to the other “left” party. To allow it to influence your vote is taking tactical voting to a ludicrous and unnecessary extreme, particularly when your first preference has a much, much bigger influence on what happens than where its preferences go. (If you vote ALP, you vote for nothing to change; if you vote Green, you pull the ALP and the parliament back to the left. Also, voting Green gives them the funding for your vote instead of the thoroughly undeserving ALP, helping them grow and become an even better alternative.)

*You might say aha, but the ALP votes are more than the Greens, so the raw number of Coalition preferences is higher. But the only scenario in which this matters is where the number of ALP and Greens votes are similar, so the proportion equates to more of those locked-away votes.

But if this issue bothers you – the answer is clear anyway. The best way of defeating the Liberals is, again, to vote Green and preference the ALP.

Review: Thanks for clearing that up Jeremy. I like a drink too (and so does Laura) and I reckon there’s nothing wrong with a night on the tiles. But one thing I have learnt from my time on the blog is NOT to write a post when I am still pissed or hung over. At least wait until the Nurofen kicks in. And the same goes for commenters whose comment consists of nothing more than thisTl:dr

Go figure!

(PS for Craygees benefit: this is what is called ‘fair review & criticism’)

The 3 musketeers week of yawn

It’s been a busy week over at the Crikey blog dedicated to proving the ‘intellectual dishonesty’ of Andrew Bolt. Lets have a look at the last 5 posts:

1. Tubbys post on 13 July “Andrew Bolt and the great gerrymander conspiracy” attracted a total of just 22 comments including 2 from Iain with the rest mainly responding to him. Not a good start. 

2. Daves post on 14 July “A little bit of inaccuracy” at least diverts away from the usual topic of ‘Mr Bolt is wrong’ by focusing on some minor errors of fact in the Sydney tabloid the Daily Telegraph. The DTs editor is no doubt whipping himself to death following the stunning response of 16 comments agreeing with Dave that yes indeed the paper got a couple of things wrong.  

3. In fairness to Dave the commenters were all over at Tubbys little pearler of a post also written on 14 July titled “Pulling apart Andrew Bolt’s anti-Islam crusade”. This cutting piece of writing attracted a whopping 74 comments to take out the Pure Pwned gold star for post of the week. I hear Bolt is still licking his wounds. 

4. Things then went pretty quiet at Pure Pwned for the next 48 hours (ie status quo) until Dave realised if you cant beat em join em and struck back with yet another anti-Bolt post on 16 July “Operation Torture”. Alas this post took out the wooden spoon for the week with only 12 comments proving conclusively that Daves trainer wheels are permanently welded on. 

5. It was then left to Tubby to salvage something from another slow news week to inspiringly come up with yet another “Weekend Talk Thread” on 16 July that as of right now two days later has attracted just 26 comments. Despite yesterdays big news (something about an election) there is a lot more about you-guessed-it (Andrew Bolt) in the comments than about Julia & Tony. 

So there you have it. Five posts for a total of 150 mainly sycophantic comments. And four of the five posts focusing mainly on you-know-who. Crikey must be rapt with the performance of the Three Musketeers. I dont know how they keep up the pace.

(PS: Missing in action this week was Boltwatcher extraordinaire Jeremy whose last missive  on 7 July lecturing The Age on their failure to recognise the importance of his beloved Greens Party really brained them with a whole 42 comments. Come back Jeremy, Pure Pwned needs its Three Musketeers working as one throughout the election campaign.)

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