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Queensland Election, a prediction of sorts

I have been rather underwhelmed by the current state election campaign up here which I put down to my having read too much of the left wing wishful thinking that imagines there being a return to government of the ALP but just this morning while I was listening the radio I got the strongest feeling “in my water” that the Newman government will indeed be returned and that the ALP’s  very negative  campaigning will not see them in office.  On the other hand the LNP has run a positive and far more professional campaign which is far more inspiring than the negativity and fear mongering from the left and the minor parties.

One factor that always needs to be remembered about Queensland elections is that we have optional preferential voting up here and that requires a conscious decision to locate a second  preference to avoid a vote being quickly made irrelevant when you are voting for a minor player, this innovation was introduced by the too clever by half Peter Beattie because he thought that it would give him an advantage against the then separate Liberal and National parties.  Now that its the Left that is more fractured the irony that this piece of political gamesmanship is coming back to bite them should amuse my fellow conservatives a fair bit come election night.

Cheers Comrades

I even feel that despite the odds being aginst him that Campbell Newman will retain  his seat of Ashgrove

I even feel that despite the odds being against him that Campbell Newman will retain his seat of Ashgrove

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The reviled Mining Tax, gone at a price we can live with

walking-thong

No matter how often you watch this Gif you will never get beyond its promise to the fulfilment that you desire, which sums up the ill-conceived and now abolished MRRT

The mining tax has been abolished after a deal with the Palmer United party (PUP) in which the government delayed the abolition of the schoolkids bonus and other savings and deferred already-legislated increases to workers’ compulsory superannuation for seven years.

The prime minister was jubilant after the shock deal was revealed, claiming it rendered the Labor party irrelevant and proved the government – approaching the first anniversary of its election – was “getting on with the job.”

After secret negotiations with PUP, the government revealed a deal with the crossbench senators to finally abolish the mining tax – as it had so often promised – if it retained three programs until after the next election, instead of abolishing them straight away.

In changes that will cost the budget bottom line $6.5bn over the next four years but leave it no worse off in the long term, the government has agreed to keep the schoolkids bonus, the low income superannuation contribution and the income support bonus until 2016 or 2017.

But it will also freeze the amount employers are compelled to put into all workers superannuation accounts. It is currently legislated to increase to 10% in 2015-16 and then by 0.5% each year to reach 12% in 2019-20. After this deal goes through it will be frozen at 9.5% and won’t reach 10% until 2021, rising by 0.5% a year after that.

Source

Well by my reckoning that is another victory for the Coalition government in their campaign to undo the follies of Labor, which means that we will no longer have a tax that costs more to administer than it collects which  makes us a laughing stock to the world. Further the suspension of increases in superannuation will be greeted with great joy but those in our economy who provide the employment, it will mean that the cost of hiring someone will be less over time which should help business to employ more people.  Personally as I have two children in school the continuation of the school kids bonus will come in handy but I very much doubt that it has ever been a game changer to parents in this age of voter cynicism.  As Tony Abbott said yesterday in the Parliament this is not everything the government wanted but it will do.

What this means is that the government has actually achieved the three planks of its election campaign, the Carbon Tax has gone, the Mining Tax has gone and the Boats have been stopped, more importantly though this demonstrates that for all of his bluff and bluster in the media Palmer can be dealt with and the government can bring about the reforms that it was elected to do.

Cheers Comrades

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Call and Response

Kevin Rudd (labor@australianlaborparty.emailnb.com)
5:44 AM
To: Iain Hall

Iain,

I just finished officially launching Labor’s election campaign in Brisbane. You might have watched on TV or followed along online. I hope you are proud of our strong campaign so far and ready for the days to come.

You supported our campaign, and I thank you for that. But this campaign is far from over, and I need to ask for something specific now.

Can you donate one more time?

This election is there to be won if we work hard until the end.

There are two election campaigns happening. One is being reported by the pundits and on the frontpage of the tabloids. That the campaign is already over, and Tony Abbott is already as good as in The Lodge. But there’s another campaign – the real campaign, where we have had thousands of donations, just like the one you gave, and where thousands of volunteers are making calls and knocking on doors. If we keep focussed on fighting that campaign, there’ll be an upset on Saturday.

As voters think about the brutal cuts to the bone that Tony Abbott has planned, they are thinking again about their vote. We’re seeing it across the country. We have a strong argument for the closing week: Labor builds up education, health, our nation’s infrastructure; the Liberals cut, they tear down. It’s a good message because it is true.

In my launch speech, I talked about the work we all need to do this week That work will cost money. It will be strongest if we can club together. Please make a donation of $5, or whatever you can afford.

I am proud of the campaign we are running this country together, and I am grateful for your work.

Kevin

 

to which I Replied

  • RE: What we’re focussed on:‏

Iain Hall
7:04 AM
To: Kevin Rudd

Dear Kevin
Thank you for your email however I feel that in the light of the record of  the Labor Government over the last six years that either donating to the party would be a foolish thing to do. you see I have been profoundly disappointed by both you personally and the whole ideology of the party in general.

Worse yet  you seem to be following precisely the same path as the one trod by Anna Bligh in the last days of her government and frankly if you want  to do a truly good service to the Australian Labor Party  you will try to conduct your self with good grace as you make your way towards the defeat that you have so richly earned,
Maybe the ALP will be fit to govern again in the future but I fear that iot may well be something that I will only see in my dotage.

Sincerely
Iain Hall

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