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In the old days of the seventies our national unemployment statistics used to be based upon the number or people claiming an unemployment benefit from the then DSS and at some point a bright spark in government decided that instead of using that empirical measurement of those who are self-identifying as “unemployed” they would use a supposedly better system of statistical sampling. Frankly I was unconvinced when this change was made and I recall discussing the change with my late father who was equally scathing and of the opinion that it was just a blatant attempt to manipulate the public perceptions of the level of unemployment. Over the subsequent years since the change I have shared my cynicism about the statistics many times but this little snippet from the Age shows just how right I am to distrust such things
Each month the bureau surveys about 29,000 homes. One-eighth of the group, about 3600 homes, leave the survey each month and a new 3600 are ”rotated” in.
Rarely, usually only once every one or two years, employment conditions in the new homes are quite different to those in the old. When that happens, the official employment numbers jump (or fall) even if employment itself hasn’t changed.
The houses rotated in in February were extremely different to the houses rotated out. So different that the bureau believes the rotation itself was responsible for half of the reported 71,500 surge in employment, the ”best monthly job creation result in 13 years”.
Bureau staff briefed government officials Thursday morning
Another unusual occurrence ”amplified” the error.
To convert its survey into answers for the entire population, the bureau multiplies the result by a number based on its guess of the population. Its best guess is that Australia’s working age population rose by more than usual at the start of this year as a greater than usual number of foreign students arrived.
It reckons this further exaggerated the already-exaggerated employment growth, perhaps by another 13 per cent.
It would prefer people to look at its estimate of what it calls the trend. This shows employment climbed at a sedate pace of 11,600 in February, much less than 71,500, and just enough to keep pace with population. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 per cent.
Cue the usual suspects 🙄
- A Good Employment Report This Month; A Bad Labor Market (delong.typepad.com)
- The Global Economy Is A Giant Ponzi Scheme (theglobalmail.org)
- The myth of the “welfare scrounger” (newstatesman.com)
- Unemployment rate tipped to rise (news.theage.com.au)
Its rather apt that no matter how much cash the Gillard government throw around the polls remain in the wipe out zone. Any other government would be reconsidering their entire political agenda but we are not talking about any other government we are talking about the Gillard Labor Government who are the masters of only one thing, the self inflicted wedgie.
Hmm did anyone really expect that the cash splash of pre-emptive compensation for the despised Carbon tax would give the Gillard any bounce? Frankly it can’t be doing them any good if they have made the Carbon Tax into the contemporary equivalent of buggery in the age of Mr Wilde, “its the tax that dare not speak its name” if the Government ads are anything to go by. I’m sure that the advertising spin merchants who pitched the latest campaign had the right idea to down play the connection between the cash splash and the carbon tax but the way that they refuse to mention it at all just ads to the public perception that Gillard is a sneaky and deceptive political operator. That is of course the very last thing that she needs if she hopes to even improve Labor’s chances from dire to just very bad. Are there no wise heads in this government that are willing to point out the last thing the voters will tolerate is bullshit on an issue that is the very reason that Labor is despised?
- Abbott won’t repeal carbon tax: Gillard
- Carbon Cops: Educate or Else
- The Gillard government’s deliberately deceptive advertising
- Gillard steps up carbon price defence
- Julia Gillard’s $700m carbon tax sweetener
- When’s a good time to introduce a great big new tax?
- Firms that Mislead Customers on Carbon Tax Face Up to $1.1 Million Fine
- Australia Government’s ‘Cash Splash’ Aimed At Calming Carbon-Tax Fears
- Carbon Tax Worries Australian Businesses
- Team Abbott and Prophecies of Doom
- Ask not for whom the bell tolls Julia, it tolls for thee
- Sould Bill Shorten be on suicide watch?
To run a successful ponzi scheme you need a couple of things working for you. in the first instance you need to have a large pool of the foolish who will believe your spin about investing in your scheme and you need to be able to demonstrate that those “in on the ground floor” are getting the magical returns that you claim in your prospectus. When your Ponzi scheme is all about “carbon credits” you need to demonstrate that the units that you are selling at a fixed price are a ” Good deal” there in lays the problem for the Labor/Greens Carbon tax/trading scheme:
Sadly for the nation in general and anyone in business in particular the architects of this already discredited scheme are so committed to it (and they have already spent the expected revenue) that they no longer care that it is destined to be a terrible burden upon the Australian people and one of the reasons that Labor will have a very long term booking at the wilderness Hilton
- John Elway Bilked In Ponzi Scheme [Fraud]
- Allen Stanford guilty of setting up $7bn Ponzi scheme
- British Investor Jailed for Country’s Largest Ponzi Scheme
- The next exciting episode in the Carbon Tax saga, Or Clive Palmer puts a cat among the Green pigeons
- Ponzi Scheme or Not, Social Security Can’t Keep Up the Pace
- Stanford Convicted In $7 Billion Ponzi Scheme
- Conman behind UK’s biggest Ponzi scheme jailed