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The more things change the more they stay the same

In the old days of the seventies our national unemployment statistics used to be based upon the number or people claiming an unemployment benefit from the then DSS and at some point a bright spark in government decided that instead of using that empirical measurement of those who are self-identifying as “unemployed” they would use  a supposedly better system of statistical sampling. Frankly I was unconvinced when this change was made and I recall discussing the change with my late father who was equally scathing and of the opinion that it was just a blatant attempt to manipulate the public perceptions of the level of unemployment.  Over the subsequent years since the change I have  shared my cynicism about the statistics many times but this little snippet from the Age shows just how right I am  to distrust such things

Each month the bureau surveys about 29,000 homes. One-eighth of the group, about 3600 homes, leave the survey each month and a new 3600 are ”rotated” in.

Rarely, usually only once every one or two years, employment conditions in the new homes are quite different to those in the old. When that happens, the official employment numbers jump (or fall) even if employment itself hasn’t changed.

The houses rotated in in February were extremely different to the houses rotated out. So different that the bureau believes the rotation itself was responsible for half of the reported 71,500 surge in employment, the ”best monthly job creation result in 13 years”.

Bureau staff briefed government officials Thursday morning

Another unusual occurrence ”amplified” the error.

To convert its survey into answers for the entire population, the bureau multiplies the result by a number based on its guess of the population. Its best guess is that Australia’s working age population rose by more than usual at the start of this year as a greater than usual number of foreign students arrived.

It reckons this further exaggerated the already-exaggerated employment growth, perhaps by another 13 per cent.

It would prefer people to look at its estimate of what it calls the trend. This shows employment climbed at a sedate pace of 11,600 in February, much less than 71,500, and just enough to keep pace with population. The unemployment rate remained steady at 5.4 per cent.

As someone once said ” there are lies, damned lies and statistics “   and when it comes to this or any other government talking about how well they are doing in creating or maintaining our employment levels when they bandy around figures as if they are holy writ it is probably wise to think on the way such figures are magicked into existence by the ABS especially if they are trumpeted by any political player as being indicative of a government’s performance in “creating jobs”
Cheers Comrades
a gratuitous image of a woman exercising to distract attention from the post, rather like the way that employment ststitics distract attention form the actual level of employment

A gratuitous image of a woman exercising to distract attention from the post, rather like the way that employment statistics distract attention form the actual level of unemployment.

Cue the usual suspects 🙄


Julia Gillard, the self inflicted wedgie and advertising buggery

Its rather apt  that no matter how much cash the Gillard government throw around the polls remain in the wipe out zone. Any other government would be reconsidering their entire political agenda but we are not talking about any other government  we are talking about the Gillard Labor Government who are the masters of only one thing, the self inflicted wedgie.

click for source

Hmm did anyone really expect that the cash splash of pre-emptive compensation for the despised Carbon tax would give the Gillard any bounce? Frankly it can’t be doing them any good if they have made the Carbon Tax into the contemporary equivalent of buggery in the age of Mr Wilde, “its the tax that dare not speak its name” if the Government ads are anything to go by. I’m sure that the advertising spin merchants who pitched the latest campaign had the right idea to down play the connection between the cash splash and the carbon tax but the way that they refuse to mention it at all just ads to the public perception that Gillard is a sneaky and deceptive political operator. That is of course the very last thing that she needs if she hopes to even  improve Labor’s chances from dire to just very bad. Are there no wise heads in this government that are willing to point out the last thing the voters will tolerate is bullshit  on an issue that is the very reason that Labor is despised?

Cheers Comrades

Juliar and Bob’s ponzi wealth prospects look bleak

To run a successful ponzi scheme you need a couple of things working for you. in the first instance you need to have a large pool of the foolish who will believe your spin about investing in your scheme and you need to be able to demonstrate that those “in on the ground floor” are getting the magical returns that you claim in your prospectus. When your Ponzi scheme is all about “carbon credits” you need to demonstrate that the units that you are selling at a fixed price are a ” Good deal” there in lays the problem for the Labor/Greens Carbon tax/trading scheme:

click for source

Sadly for the nation in general and anyone in business in particular the architects of this already discredited scheme are so committed to it (and they have already spent the expected revenue) that they no longer care that it is destined to be a terrible burden upon the Australian people and one of the reasons that Labor will  have a very long term booking at the wilderness Hilton
Cheers Comrades

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