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As i wait for this game to arrive in my PO box from the UK * I can’t help thinking that the launch trailer says a lot about the ALP campaign thus far. Right have you watched the trailer (this means you Ray 😉 )yet? The save the world speech, although laden with profanity very much reminds me of our new Again Dear Leader who would have the nation believe that Tony Abbott is an alien invader and that only he can save the country by putting his underpants on over his trousers and spreading the word that the nation will be destroyed under an Abbott government.
For a man who declared that he was opposed to negative campaigning we are seeing a great deal that is negative coming out of Team Labor but worse still we are seeing a great deal that is fake as well like the ads staring
It reminds me of several other campaigns run by the ALP over the last few years, like the one for which the built an expensive set that pretended to be an average Aussie Kitchen at the cost of many thousands of dollars to promote the Carbon tax compensation when they could have just used the real thing for just a couple of grand. Sadly this dedication to artifice and faux reality is all too common and you would think that given the clear intention to try to use social media in its campaign that the ALP would have grasped the fundamental importance of veracity when it comes to their advertising. Surely there must be some real people who are actually afraid of an Abbott government rather than a professional liar sprouting her lines for a fee.
Ah well that leads me to a question for our dear readers, which is to ask what political ads have struck you as being above average or real clangers. More importantly which ads do you think have been effective in selling their message?
*This little black duck does not want to have a censored version of the game ho hum…
- PM and Abbott to meet in people’s forum (bigpondnews.com)
- Kevin Rudd, Tony Abbott trade blows over attack ads as poll shows Labor in trouble (abc.net.au)
- Preaching to the unconverted (smh.com.au)
- Plants vs Zombie Rudd (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Rudd ‘returns fire’ with negative Abbott adverts (smh.com.au)
- Labor targets Coalition’s ‘unfair’ paid parental leave scheme; Abbott says Rudd ‘doesn’t get it’ (abc.net.au)
- We will spend money more wisely: Abbott (news.smh.com.au)
- Rudd ‘returns fire’ with ads (canberratimes.com.au)
- Can Labor still win? Oh, yes (smh.com.au)
- Abbott slams ‘squalid’ ALP preference deal (news.theage.com.au)
As I have felt for a while I see Labor federally following the same script as the Bligh government exited under up here in Queensland. If I may be as bold as to suggest that the land slid will be of the same sort of magnitude as well and if that is the case it will take the greatest type of discipline for an Abbot government to resit the call of hubris and over reach, however I think that Abbott has a real desire to retain office for a long time and I hope that desire will steady his hand far more than closer numbers in the parliament would.
Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.
Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent as Mr Abbott spent much of last week campaigning against minority government, ruling out doing a deal with the Greens and challenging Mr Rudd to follow.
On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.
Labor is now facing a four-point swing away from it since the last election, which would cost the government at least 14 seats if the poll were held now and the swing was uniform across the nation.
The latest Newspoll had a larger sample size and the margin of error, normally three points, dropped to just more than two points, giving greater accuracy.
Acknowledging Labor’s dire position in the polls, Finance Minister and campaign spokeswoman Penny Wong said yesterday that if the election had been held on Saturday, “Mr Abbott would be prime minister”.
While polls in specific seats have shown big swings against Labor, the worst trend for the government has been a sharp decline in the popularity of Mr Rudd and counter-rise for Mr Abbott.
Voter satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped four points to 35 per cent, and dissatisfaction jumped six points, to 54 per cent – the worst personal support Mr Rudd has ever had as prime minister and just below when he was dumped three years ago.
Since Mr Rudd’s high point in voter support after his return in the first week of last month – 43 per cent satisfaction and 36 per cent dissatisfaction – voter satisfaction has fallen steadily by eight points and dissatisfaction has jumped 18 points.
Mr Rudd’s net satisfaction rating is -19, compared with +7 at the beginning of last month.
Cheers Comrade Yale
- Labor support plummets in latest Newspoll (news.theage.com.au)
- Labor at a new low in Newspoll (bigpondnews.com)
- Labor losing ground in key NSW marginals, PM Kevin Rudd’s popularity nosediving: poll (abc.net.au)
- Newspoll puts Labor at a new low (bigpondnews.com)
- Satisfaction with Rudd slipping (bigpondnews.com)
- A great headline in the Australian! (territoryhawk.wordpress.com)
- Rudd support slips in poll (smh.com.au)
- Support for Rudd takes a hit: Newspoll (news.com.au)
As I predicted several times in this blog Tony Abbott has decided to Keep Labor’s “compensation” package when the hated Carbon Tax is deservedly thrown out after September 14:
This is utterly brilliant politics that very neatly cuts Labor off from the otherwise guaranteed scare campaign about the coalition and it renders Gillard and Co impotent in their attacks. While I’m sure that those true believers who are fighting their utter despair with disbelief and denial will crash very hard on September 14 ordinary Labor voters like those on Pensions and benefits can breathe a sigh of relief that they won’t be the ones feeling the pain for Labor’s maladministration of the nation over the last six years. However those in cushy jobs in the Climate change edifice will be quaking in their boots right now as they will be madly searching for new positions, now before the post September rush.
Over all I think that what Abbott offers here is entirely sensible both politically and economically and he has managed to press all of the right buttons more importantly what he says is credible, something Wayne Swan is utterly incapable of being.
Advocates here insist that the Gillard scheme will be a valuable tool in the fight against the scourge of Anthropogenic Global Warming I have never been convinced that it will do anything that its advocates claim and I have repeatedly suggested that its little more than a scam. This post has but one purpose and that is to point out the folly of “emission trading schemes” and to show just how easily they become little more than a shambolic fraud. One only has top look to the European scheme to see what we can expect from the one created by the Gillard government:
Of course my quote above does not tell the whole story but it is a good example of how these schemes rely upon what can only be described as “clever accounting” to create the pretence of efficacy. To be honest I can see how such an indirect method to change industrial behaviour can ever truly work because it is all based upon the “bigger idiot principal”* and just as that sees the collapse of ponzi schemes it is seeing the collapse of the European emissions trading scheme as well:
Its a far from pretty picture in Europe and the only light in the antipodean climate darkness is that the Coalition have promised to repeal the idiotic regime created to placate the loopy Greens by a desperate Julia Gillard. Now if only the incoming Abbott government would have the courage to also ditch the majority of their own pointless scheme the country would be truly free of the AGW madness .
*the bigger idiot principle is essential in all kinds of derivative trading schemes it is the underlying belief that any commodity can be sold at a profit if only enough people can be convinced to buy into the scheme. It is fine until the supply of idiots runs out.
- Politicians reject call for early shift to emissions trading (abc.net.au)
- EU urged to revive flagging emissions trading scheme (guardian.co.uk)
- Opposition rules out emissions scheme (news.com.au)
- The EU Emissions Trading Scheme under WTO Rules (worldtradelaw.typepad.com)
- What Gillard is up against (theaimn.com)
- Without dignity all is lost for Labor (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- How does Julia sleep? (spectator.co.uk)
- Carbon fat cats are killing the emissions trading mouse | Damian Carrington (guardian.co.uk)
In the old days when we wanted to describe a litany of failure we used to say that the list was as long as our arm. With Labor no arm is long enough for the exhaustive list and one has to evoke all limbs of the body and a substantial part of the torso as well.
Labor Lemons, from 2008 to the middle of 2011 there were 50 fails! Failures of both Rudd’s and Gillard’s. Since then there have been too many to document.
How many have been in the pocket of other corrupt figures like O’beid and MacDonald too, or beholden to corrupt unions and organizers, Part 5. First 4 at bottom of post.
Posted on August 6, 2011
Gillard/Swan/Rudd Top 50 Lemons
1. Carbon Tax – “There will be no carbon tax under the Government I lead.”
2. NBN – $50 billion but no cost-benefit analysis
3. Building the Education Revolution – The school halls fiasco
4. Home Insulation Plan (Pink Batts) – Dumped
5. Citizens Assembly – Dumped
6. Cash for Clunkers – Dumped
7. Hospital Reform…
View original post 559 more words
The News-poll this morning is even worse for Labor than even I expected:
JULIA Gillard’s personal standing has crashed to a 19-month low and Tony Abbott is clearly back in front as the nation’s preferred prime minister after Labor’s “appalling” two weeks of political and policy failure.
According to the latest Newspoll survey, Labor’s primary vote has slumped five points to a disastrous 30 per cent after a fortnight that ended with the aborted leadership spill and mass cabinet resignations, with one in two voters now siding with the Coalition.
The collapse in the Labor vote has completely wiped out the party’s recovery in the second half of last year and has entrenched the prospect of a landslide vote against the government in the election scheduled for September 14.
After taking into account preference flows, federal Labor’s support is eight percentage points below its level at the 2010 election, at 42 per cent – a swing that if replicated in September would remove about 30 Labor MPs, including at least five ministers.
This can only be described as a electoral Tsunami and Ray’s 25% primary vote seems possible now . just imagine what it will be in September.
According to some pundits in the press today is likely to be the high noon moment for the Gillard Regime and the resurrection of Brother Number One well personally I don’t know its certainly possible but I can’t help thinking that the internal animosities within the party might just prove to be irreconcilable. The Daily Telegraph reports on a piece of information control that kept the news of Rudd favourable polling away from the caucus just before the knives were pulled on Brother Number One.
Its a story that would have made Machiavelli proud and one can imagine about way the Gillard coup plotters sought to control this crucial bit of information and just how relieved that they were to know that their efforts were successful. Then again its quite amazing that none of the caucus thought to ask just why a whole swag of party polling was suddenly cancelled at just the point in time when it was Rudd’s fall from grace with the voters that was the claimed reason for the sharpening of knives.
Labor have even further blotted their copy book with the rather heartless move against those single mums and even a committee that they head is saying so:
Even the most heartless conservative can not fail to recognise the political madness of this so called “cost saving” measure. You can bet with great certainty that every one of those single parents will not be voting for Labor this time around and once people switch their vote it takes a great deal more incentive for them to return to the fold than it took to lose them in the first place. Its a whole lot of political injury for the party to save a few bucks. Worse still it makes a mockery of Labor’s claim to be “for” the disadvantaged in our community. If they wanted to save money that is well and truly wasted they should have abolished all of the “Clean Energy Future ” nonsense instead. That would save many billions more that the “savings” of this measure and on top of that it would have played better with the middle ground voters who have been crossing the political street to vote for Tony Abbott in droves.
As I see it the tragedy of the modern Labor party is that they have tried, without any benefit, to court the loopy left constituency which is far smaller and of course they can’t go too far in that direction without alienating the centre from which they are bleeding an ever increasing number of voters straight to the coalition. Their problem though is that those who slip into the loving embrace of the Greens tend to preference Labor but those who go to the Coalition will not return the same secondary benefit to the ALP. Am I the only one who can see the inherent problem in this strategy here for Labor?
So will today be the Gillardageddon? I don’t know for sure but its shaping up that way and if it is I suspect that we will be going to the polls well before Sept 14. As a resurgent Rudd will seek to capitalise on any honeymoon period to maximise his chances of making a good showing in the final result. It will all be too little too late for the ALP who have utterly trashed their own reputation with such skill and acuity that a conspiracy theorist would be insisting that the party must have been infiltrated by agents of the Coalition. Back in the real world though we can see that what has killed the Labor party has been two things firstly they have failed to keep pace with the changes to the demographics of our society. No longer is there a vast cohort of low and semi skilled labourers who are amenable to the message of socialism and “worker solidarity” we have moved on form that to being a country were more workers are highly skilled and many are contractors or sell their Labor via their own small businesses. To these men and women the union dominated Labor party are like a lumbering sauropod , a lumbering dinosaur that is out of its time and place in the current environment. Secondly they have lost sight of just how corrosive their own archaic internal processes are to their public image. I think that it will be a near fatal combination at the next election and that it will be the reason that The ALP will take up residence in the wilderness for a very long time.
- Rudd Twice as Popular as Gillard in Australian Opinion Poll – Bloomberg (bloomberg.com)
- PM facing landslide loss in new poll (bigpondnews.com)
- Loss of confidence in Gillard (smh.com.au)
- Cabinet ministers desert Gillard (theage.com.au)
- The attractions of dull and predictable over the wild and crazy ride with Labor (iainhall.wordpress.com)
- Speculation Mounts of Aussie Leadership Challenge (abcnews.go.com)
- PM says she won’t flinch on leadership (news.smh.com.au)