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But, as Cook points out, this means that ‘only four per cent of the authors “voted”‘ which is hardly grounds to claim a consensus.

Chariots of the Dogs

Chariots of the Dogs

Here is a lovely exposition of the way that statistics can be manipulated and distorted as a propaganda tool and then cited ad infinitum as if they have some intrinsic meaning, sorry in advance to the true believers in Climate change but this may just upset your apple cart just a little next time you cite the “97% consensus” claim.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday 28 May 2014
Media Contact: Tim Black
+44 (0)207 40 40 470
tim.black@spiked-online.com

Today on spiked, Michael Cook takes apart the claim, cited by President Barack Obama, that 97 per cent of scientists are in agreement that climate change is man-made and poses a serious danger.

‘Do 97 per cent of scientists really agree on both propositions? Let?s do a reality check here’, writes Cook. ‘On what issue do academics reach 97 per cent agreement other than that they are being underpaid? That the sun will rise tomorrow? No, some of them will say, because the sun doesn?t rise; the earth revolves. No, because we can only assert that it is probable, not certain. No, because we might be living in a multiverse where the sun will not rise on 28 May, etc, etc.’

So how did an Australian scientist at the University of Queensland, and several colleagues, arrive at the this now famous figure of 97 per cent?

Cook discovered that the researchers had sorted through thousands of academic abstracts featuring the words ‘global climate change’ and ‘global warming’, dividing them up into four piles to indicate whether they held a position on climate change (the biggest pile (66.4 per cent) held no position)

Cook writes: ‘Of the smaller piles which did express an opinion, 97.1 per cent “endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming”.’ 

The researchers then emailed a survey to 8,547 out of the 29,083 authors who ‘endorsed the consensus position’ on climate change, of which only 1,189 responded (nearly all of whom did agree that climate change was man made (97.2 per cent)).

But, as Cook points out, this means that ‘only four per cent of the authors “voted”‘ which is hardly grounds to claim a consensus. 

Furthermore, Cook points out, ‘Obama rashly added the word “dangerous” to the claim. Not even [the Australian reseachers] dared to assert that 97 per cent of scientists believe that global warming is “dangerous”.’

Cook concludes: ‘Scientists and politicians do themselves no favours when they use shoddy statistics and public relations flim-flam to sell scientific hypotheses to the public.’ 

Read the full article:
http://www.spiked-online.com/newsite/article/global-warming-the-97-fallacy/15069

When we are given any numerical value as a signifier of a proposition’s veracity we should, of course always ask the obvious question of just how was that number made or settled upon. Especially when it is a major  dot point in the climate change debate. In any event in scientific terms “consensus” is and always has been close to utterly meaningless, not that any of the true believers will ever admit that because to them its their ticket to ride in the Chariots of the Dogs.

Cheers Comrades

this post was produced entirely with puppy power

this post was produced entirely with sustainable  puppy power

The IPCC now says it’s OK to adapt to ‘climate change’

Find below an excellent piece by Don Aitkin about the shift in the IPCC focus from mitigation to adaptation, which is something that I have been rabbiting on about for many years both here and elsewhere. I republish it here under the  terms of its creative commons licence. Further this post is dedicated to PKD  who still has not produced that long promised essay on Climate change.

When I first became interested in global warming ten years ago what puzzled me at once was the insistence on ‘mitigation’ — reducing or abolishing carbon dioxide emissions — and the  almost complete indifference to ‘adaptation’ — preparing in advance to deal with droughts, floods, high temperatures, and all the rest of the climate possibilities. We seemed to  be doing something in that direction, but hardly enough.

Professor Bob Carter, one scientist that has been sceptical from the beginning of the global warming scare, suggested long ago that Australia adopt  and adapt the New Zealand civil defence management system, which is built around the ’4 Rs’ — Reduction, Readiness, Response, Recovery. As any Australian of mature years knows, we are prone to natural ‘disasters’, and our SES system is one form of our own preparedness.

But the IPCC has never been interested. For it the key thing has been to get carbon emissions down before disaster overwhelms us. As I have argued many times, this strategy has three weaknesses: it is practically unfeasible to do it quickly, it cannot be done on a global scale, and the outcome of whatever any country does will have no discernible effect on temperature there. Given ‘the pause’, now approaching 18 years on one measure, one could also argue that there is no immediate need to do anything at all in the mitigation department. Isn’t it time, for example, that we built some more ‘flood-proofing’ dams?

Well, the IPCC has now given what seems to be a cautious go-ahead to adaptation. According to Chris Field , one of the co-chairs of the new report,

The really big breakthrough in this report is the new idea of thinking about managing climate change… Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has never been tried. Governments, firms, and communities around the world are building experience with adaptation. This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and society continue to change.

Dr Field also declaredThe natural human tendency is to want things to be clear and simple. And one of the messages that doesn’t just come from the IPCC, it comes from history, is that the future doesn’t ever turn out the way you think it will be… being prepared for a wide range of possible futures is just always smart.

Does this mean that the IPCC is giving up on ‘mitigation’. No. But, at least it seems to me that, the IPCC may well be coming to the view that if it is to survive, it will have to have more than the mitigation arrow in its quiver. If I am right, then we can expect more IPCC papers on how best to adapt. Judith Curry devoted her 30 March blog to this subject, which drew 787 comments at last count. She cited an article by Andrew Lilico she had read in the Telegraph (London), which put forward the following:

… the global GDP costs of an expected global average temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius over the 21st century will be between 0.2 and 2 per cent. To place that in context, the well-known Stern Review of 2006 estimated the costs as 5-20 per cent of GDP. Stern estimates the costs of his recommended policies for mitigating climate change at 2 per cent of GDP – and his estimates are widely regarded as relatively optimistic (others estimate mitigation costs as high as 10 per cent of global GDP). At a 2.4 per cent annual GDP growth rate, the global economy increases 0.2 per cent every month.

So the mitigation deal has become this: Accept enormous inconvenience, placing authoritarian control into the hands of global agencies, at huge costs that in some cases exceed 17 times the benefits even on the Government’s own evaluation criteria, with a global cost of 2 per cent of GDP at the low end and the risk that the cost will be vastly greater, and do all of this for an entire century, and then maybe – just maybe – we might save between one and ten months of global GDP growth.

Whereas previously the IPCC emphasised the effects climate change could have if not prevented, now the focus has moved on to how to make economies and societies resilient and to adapt to warming now considered inevitable. Climate exceptionalism – the notion that climate change is a challenge of a different order from, say, recessions or social inclusion or female education or many other important global policy goals – is to be down played. Instead, the new report emphasised that adapting to climate change is one of many challenges that policymakers will face but should have its proper place alongside other policies.

Our first step in adapting to climate change should be to accept that we aren’t going to mitigate it. We’re going to have to adapt. That doesn’t mean there might not be the odd mitigation-type policy, around the edges, that is cheap and feasible and worthwhile. But it does mean that the grandiloquent schemes for preventing climate change should go. Their day is done. Even the IPCC – albeit implicitly – sees that now.

It’s all too soon to say where this is going. But it would seem to me that the Abbott Government could pick up the drift and win a brownie point or two by talking sagely about ‘adaptation’ — and quote the IPCC in so doing.

The latest from the IPCC

As is my want I have been dabbling with commenting at the Guardian and its an interesting game of cat and mouse to see just what I can get past the moderators  who are quite amusingly incredibly politically correct.  They have a most incredibly biased moderation and they give free reign to the Millenarian catastrophe fans of the  parsimonious Green persuasion. its the sort of challenge that I enjoy a great deal . Quite predictably they are having a sort of masturbatory online orgasm with the releases of the  IPCC  and treating this political document as if its John Smiths golden pages or the stone slabs brought down from the mountain by Moses but from what I have seen its very much a case of “same old same old” tosh that they have been peddling for years. About the only tick that I can give the document is that it does seem to contain a tacit concession that mitigation can not be made to work at a global level. Considering how long they have had to prepare this political document it don’t amount to much.  James Delingpole has a lovely satirical take on it:

click for source

click for source

The really scary thing about James piece is that many of the misanthropic Greenies are dreaming of  the predicted apocolypse with a sort of sadomasochistic delight at the prospect that their predictions  will mean millions dead dying or suffering unremitting misery. I am only surprised that they have not yet decided that things like the Ebola outbreak in Africa is a good thing and that it may just be a damn good idea to propagate similar  pandemics around the world to cure the planet of the human disease

Cheers Comrades

are you ready to fight the horrors of the climate apocalypse?

are you ready to fight the horrors of the climate apocalypse?

March in March, oh dear! or watching the lefty freakshow

In my younger days I  participated in various protests. It was political street theater then and its  the same thing now. The difference is that then it had a point then and now well its for such a grab bag of pointless posturing that all achieves is a jump in sales for inner city Latte purveyors.  One thing is clear though and that it proves what a disconnected bunch of posturing wankers our friends from the left have become. Courtesy of my twitter feed here  are a couple of the more amusing images :

as someone who is, well, challenged by orthographic perfection I find this very funny

As someone who is, well, challenged by orthographic perfection I find this very funny

Orthographic  revision needed here  too

Orthographic revision needed here too

Don't these volunteers realize that thereis nothing unusual about our recent bush fires?  that said young hottie in the foreground could start few fires all on her own

Don’t these volunteers realize that there is nothing unusual about our recent bush fires?
That said young hottie in the foreground could start few fires all on her own

I just love examples of lefty projection when its so telling.

I just love examples of lefty projection when its so telling.

Just look at all of that expensive clobber and note the Take away latte being carried by the woman on the left.

Just look at all of that expensive clobber and note the Take away latte being carried by the woman on the left.

Its all of the usual suspects, making the usual complaints in the very tedious old fashioned manner None of it will be remembered beyond Tuesday (that attractive volunteer may be remembered till Thursday! 😉 ) and nothing will change in the polity as a result of this piece of nonsense.

Rollin on Comrades

a_felix_the_cat_clr

“The next move, on Monday morning, was to the orange lifeboat.”

The brilliance of the government’s tactics in using those orange boats is being  refined with each time that they have to be deployed:

Some of the 28 asylum seekers returned to Indonesia on an Australian lifeboat. Photo: Michael Bachelard

Some of the 28 asylum seekers returned to Indonesia on an Australian lifeboat. Photo: Michael Bachelard

The asylum seekers were transferred to the Customs vessel – perhaps MV Triton, though they do not know the name. As they were loaded on board, officers were ”pushing one by one with hands behind our back”, Ali says, showing on his friend how their arms were bent into a painful position.

Any objections or requests for food and water were shouted down, no discussion entered into.

”He says: ‘Don’t speak. Shut up. F— you’,” Ali says, the others nodding. One man, Khazim Mohammad, from Iraq, was lying sick on the boat: ”The [Australian officer] said, ‘You’re joking. Liar, liar’ … and grabbed him and pulled him.”

The Indonesian crew have told Central Java police that the wooden boat was then ”blown up”. They cannot say how this happened, but speculate on a bomb.

On board the large Customs ship, interaction between crew and asylum seekers was minimal. Once their details were taken and entered on a computer, the men were given wristbands with numbers on them.

For about three days, they say they were kept below decks.

”Inside the big ship, no sun, no air. We don’t know if it’s night or day. We can’t sleep; loud noises,” says Ali.

They were fed once – cheese sandwiches – and given a cup and told to fill it up in the bathroom to drink. ”For two days we went on hunger strike.”

The Indonesian crew was kept in a separate part of the ship.

On the Customs patrol boat, Ashrof says someone searched their belongings, and all valuables – money, phone, SIM card – were taken. He does not know who took them. No phones means that, unlike on other ships, there is no video footage of their experience.

The next move, on Monday morning, was to the orange lifeboat. It was the first time they had seen it and the transfer was done in sight of land.

”The soldiers brought [us to] the orange boat … and closed the door and said to the driver of this boat … ‘Go to that island’,” Ali says.

Again the Australians would not answer questions. The Indonesians – who spoke almost no English – said it was Christmas Island. Ali did not believe them.

But there was no chance of turning back to the real Christmas Island. The crew, though experienced sailors, had never seen anything like the orange blob they now captained, and there was not enough fuel to go anywhere except to that island on the horizon.

The island, it turned out, was Java.

The lifeboats are small and inside they feel smaller. They are dark and airless with only a couple of small, high windows. Having 28 on board would have felt crowded – not everyone could have a seat, though the nameplate says it is rated for 55 people.

”No air inside and no airconditioning for the orange boat. We are very sick. We have no oxygen. We are very sick,” says Ali. ”It’s like animals. Animals [cannot be treated] like this.”

There was water on board and muesli bars.

The journey lasted only about three hours before the boat ran aground in huge seas on a rugged bay near the village of Kebumen. They were 30 metres from the beach and the surf was high, but there was little choice but to jump.

”We jumped from the boat. We are at the beach, ocean high. We arrive and drift, arrive and drift. We think we will die. We think we will die. We can’t swim,” Ali says.

Finally on the beach the exhausted men were confronted with a steep, slippery slope to climb before a local farmer found them and called the police.

The crew is now in custody being questioned by police under people smuggling laws for taking people out of the country illegally and then, at the insistence of the Australian Customs and Border Protection, back into it. The asylum seekers are bound for detention, although they don’t know where.

Sarrah Hansen-Young a very vocal useful idiot  gives us a selfie taken at the Gay `Mardi Gras

Sarrah Hansen-Young a very vocal useful idiot gives us a selfie taken at the Gay `Mardi Gras

Some how I doubt that this group of chancers will be trying again and while I expect that the usual suspects  will whine about the less that luxurious  conditions in the orange boats , or the confiscation  of mobile phones  from this cohort  but there is no escaping the simple fact that this tactic works as a way to return people who try to enter this country illegally under the pretense that they are refugees . Labor believed all of  the lies that they were told because   they wanted the preferences of Greens voters  and the Greens were the most useful idiots to the people smuggling trade but we , the Australian people, want  orderly a controlled  immigration program that chooses socially useful immigrants that will help make this country a better place  instead of self selectors who bring with them a legacy of self serving deceit.

Cheers Comrades

Who needs bullets?

Who needs bullets?

Bigger Bolt, tighter nuts

While I don’t always agree with the things Andrew says I do warmly welcome his return to the Sunday morning TV schedule because I just love to see the counterpoint of his show compared to “Insiders” on a Sunday morning

click for source and the comment thread where the Guardian readers have coniptions

click for source and the comment thread where the Guardian readers have coniptions

Its amazing just how many of the left just about have kittens at the thought of Andrew on the airwaves , Gee anyone would think that the left can not stand any voices that come from a conservative view point…

Stay tuned Comrades

You will watch and Love the Bolt Report.You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report  You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report

You will watch and Love the Bolt Report.You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report You will watch and Love the Bolt Report

Evan Keith Beaver , RET and Twitter

solar-panels-being-installed-on-a-residential-roof

I never wanted to be the sort of blogger who writes about their Tweeting stoushes but the exchange that I had yesterday was both amusing and revealing about the nature of the devotees to the Green religion,

Evan Keith Beaver@evcricket 

We’re in a democracy, so now to hold the LNP to account we get organised and stick a fork in them. If you want renewables TELL THEM LOUDLY

@evcricket why should I be paying for your renewables through my power bill

@evcricket because if you want them then you should pay for them

@evcricket Now you are copping out! Either justify the subsidies for renewables or admit its unfair to bankroll the Green vanity

@theiainhall Or option 3: don’t debate obstinates on twitter.

@evcricket You assume that renewables are a virtue if so what do they even need subsidies?

@theiainhall Look, you don’t think carbon pollution is a problem so I really couldn’t care less what you think of energy policy

@evcricket whay should what I do or don’t believe oblige me to pay for Green vanity?

@theiainhall Iain, are you impaired? I think I’ve made it pretty clear I’m not going to waste my time on you

@evcricket In the last decade my energy bills have more than doubled, some due to gold plating & Green subsidies. Zero effect on climate

@theiainhall Okay you won’t answer the question. Thanks for playing.

@evcricket Evan, the collapse of renewables energy subsidies coming for a long time, it has become too popular&expensive and unsustainable

@theiainhall Whatever. Like I said, I don’t care what you think of energy policy

@evcricket but you still want ME to subsidize renewables??

@theiainhall Exactly. Same reason you pay for cancer research yet know nothing about it. Experts do, let them make decisions

@evcricket your faith in “EXPERTS” is so delicious in its naivete, If an expert suggests you suicide for the sake of the planet would you?

@theiainhall What is a suicide expert Iain? Anyway, can you answer my question?

@evcricket your “question” is no question btw

@evcricket A question has to have a particular form and your tweet is no question

@theiainhall ok I get it. Being a dickhead just comes naturally.

Evan Keith Beaver@evcricket 13h @theiainhall What evidence would convince you that we need to do something about CO2 emissions?

@evcricket AT Last! Strewth that was worse than pulling a bad tooth with rusty pliers!

@evcricket Firstly I would need to know what that “something” is and that the act would be more than just symbolic.

@evcricket secondly I would need to be convinced with empirical evidence that the “something” would be cost effective.

Iain Hall@theiainhall

  • @evcricket Thirdly that enduring global cooperation for the next millennium (or longer) could be achieved

Isn’t the attitude of my interlocutor just so cute? He really believes that everyone should be happy that policies like the Renewable Energy Target raises the cost of energy for ordinary people, I have no doubt from previous writings of the author that he believes that the Carbon Tax is the best thing since sliced bread and its immanent repeal will be a terrible sin against Gaia. But most sadly amusing is his intense faith in “Experts” and is total suspension of any reasoning when it comes to what they say. Its what the faithful used to say about the clergy when they held far greater sway over the lives of the people the sad thing is we are consonantly told by the trendies and social media wonks that this is the age of the individual who is both connected and contribution to our collective wisdom through the wonders of social media.  To the likes of Evan Keith Beaver though all that matters is that those  with the “correct” political orientation, the cultural elite that he sees himself as part of, should impose their ideas and values upon the rest of us. Notions of social democracy go straight out the window so  his “experts” are to remain unchallenged.

I actually like the idea that social media can be an important tool in a vibrant and active democracy but it saddens me that so many of the leftists who have been its early adopters now think that it should forever be their instrument of control, that their clicktavissm should be supreme and anyone who dissents from their orthodoxy is to be derided and ignored. The irony is that the review of the Renewable Energy Target has been scheduled since before the last election, in fact its part of the legislation under which the target was created in the first place so there is no reason at all to think that it means that this article of faith for the Green religion is, of necessity , going to be abolished. Personally I think that having a diverse variety of energy sources has great virtue. However the quest to achieve this through subsidies and overly generous feed in tariffs and other incentives   has had some rather nasty consequences for those who are least able to afford them. I am talking about those who rent, those who can not afford to put the solar panels on their roof, the poor who struggle to pay their energy bills all of these people subsidise the likes of Evan Keith Beaver ‘s religious belief in Climate Change while he and his Latte sipping cronies think that they are “doing their bit” for climate change the poor and downtrodden in our country are struggling to pay those ever increasing energy bills. Its not just , its not fair and the hypocrisy of minions of the left who think like this is just breathtaking.

Cheers Comrades

Pay for your own bloody renewable energy!!!

Pay for your own bloody renewable energy!!!

I expect that today will be another where wisdom demands a quiet supplication in the face of Gaia’s wrath

I may be a bit late to the party when it comes to wishing all and sundry a “Happy New Yearmexican-wave.gif” but there is a simple reason for that, our phone and internet have been down due to the foibles of the “copper “,  the wires that come into service Chez Hall were joined by the tried and true “twist em together and  wrap in insulting tape” method since a tree branch tore the cable from the house a couple of years ago. It was one of those “quick”repairs that we do  with the very clear intention of “fixing properly” when we get round  to it. The “getting round to it” often just never comes. Anyway this time I went fully old school and soldered the joins to ensure 100% electrical connectivity. Heck as a result of this latest drama I have even learnt a thing or too about how to answer the fancy phone that my wife now has…

Further its something of a “nothing season” when it comes to the main topics covered by this blog, Australian politics always seems to take a well earned holiday at this time of the year and its a trend that I heartily endorse. It would make our politics just a tad too desperate were we to abandon the traditional Christmas new year hiatus in favour of a 365/24/7 expectation upon our political classes.   The tradition of the hiatus has not meant that all political issues go away, that would be too much to hope for, but many of the main ones have clearly been cooling as well. and if you can forgive the irony one of the ones that has been cooling substantially has been the panic induces in the cause of Global warming. Not that readers of the Guardian or the Age would think so from the rather exaggerated claims about 2013 being “the hottest on record” when you consider that the record referred to has only been compiled since 1910 it is hardly long enough to draw the connection to human activity in the way that the apocalyptic  true   believers delight in. None the less we have had a couple of rather hot days:

Archerfield, west of Brisbane, recorded its highest ever temperature since records began with a top of 43.5 degrees, just eclipsing the previous record of 43.3 degrees.

On the Sunshine Coast, Maroochydore’s 41.3 smashed its previous record of 37, while Nambour’s 42.9 degrees was well above its previous record of 40.8.

Gympie equalled its record temperature of 42 degrees.

Records were also recorded at Redcliffe (40.3 degrees), Toowoomba (39.5) and Beaudesert (43.9).

As at 3.30pm, the hottest temperature recorded in Queensland on Saturday was at Lochington, south-west of Emerald, where it was 45.4 degrees.

It certainly has been hot for the last couple of days in the Chez Hall neighbourhood but that is far from unusual for summer in south east Queensland fortunately in this part of the world the weather is only like this for a couple of weeks a year. If anything I would say that summer this year has been generally rather mild. Even though yesterday and its predecessor were horrid. That is the nature of a south east  Queensland summer.  mostly quite alright with the occasionally horrid day. Thankfully we don’t have the Victorian summer experience that Ray seems to think is so superior!
Anyway as I write this in the early morning coolness I expect that today will be another where wisdom demands a quiet supplication in the face of Gaia’s wrath I take comfort in the knowledge that we will not have these temperatures forever…
Well we climate sinners hope so.
Cheers Comrades
polar bear

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