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Newspoll Shock: Labor Ahead, 52-48

I’ve been struggling to think of how to comment on this Poll and then I read your excellent analysis Yale and naturally I thought that there is no way that I can cover it as well as you do here.
Cheers Comrade Yale

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11 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    So when the ALP is behind in the polls it’s the ALP’s fault? Good, I can accept that theory. But what’s effectively being said here is that when the Coalition is behind in the polls (as they clearly are now), it’s also the ALP’s fault?!? You two conservative chums have a giant case of the denials, Iain, because these polls (yes, the Neilsen one too that – surprise surprise – Newspoll now agrees with) are a clear reflection of Tony Abbott’s failure to seize the reins and actually do something. His asleep-at-the-wheel and I-don’t-really-care attitude to running the country are the underlying reasons for the turnaround. Oh, and the lack of any credible policies. Christ they’ve been found out pretty damn quickly.

  2. Iain Hall says:

    Ray

    His asleep-at-the-wheel and I-don’t-really-care attitude to running the country are the underlying reasons for the turnaround. Oh, and the lack of any credible policies. Christ they’ve been found out pretty damn quickly.

    Well pray tell precisely what Abbott should have been doing if you are so sure that he is in “snooze” mode.

  3. Ray Dixon says:

    Why should I set his agenda, Iain? The point is he has no plans and the little he’s done has been cocked up – eg the debt ceiling, inability to reduce the budget deficit (despite continually claiming he would), the Education funding circus and the Credlin ‘chief from hell’ matter. I think Tony’s letting Peta run the country – he’s under her …. thumb? So to speak. He’s letting the little head do the thinking perhaps – not that the big one can think any better.

  4. GD says:

    Ray reckons:

    the little he’s done has been cocked up – eg the debt ceiling, inability to reduce the budget deficit (despite continually claiming he would)

    As Treasurer Joe Hockey said, ‘This the legacy of the Labor government and this is what we have to fix.

    I fail to see how Tony Abbott has ‘cocked up’ the debt ceiling considering that this historically largest ever debt was run up under Labor’s watch.

    Joe Hockey also revealed, when the Libs took government the debt was supposedly $370 billion, now they find it is, in reality, $400 billion.

    Remember, when Rudd won the election he was gifted with an $11 billion surplus.

    Really, Ray, are you serious? For six years you’ve stated that Labor’s increasing debt was of no concern, and now, after the Libs have been in power barely three months, you expect them to, overnight, reverse the damage that Labor has inflicted?

    Hypocrite? Or are you so rusted on that no matter what the Libs do, you’ll never agree with it?

  5. Ray Dixon says:

    GD, I’m not a “hypocrite” and I’ll thank you to stop the childish name-calling. To start with, I did not say that I expect the Coaltion to reduce the debt (or deficit) and I have argued all along that the debt was necessarily incurred due to world and economic conditions. It was you (and Abbott & Hockey), not me, who claimed the debt incurred represented govt mismanagement. And it was you (and Abbott & Hockey) who claimed that if elected the coalition would reduce both the debt and the deficit. What we’ve seen now though, after only 3 months, amounts to an admission that the debt and deficit cannot reasonably be reduced and it was, after all, necessarily incurred. Hockey’s claim that we “have to fix it” doesn’t actually say they will (or can) fix it. The reality is the coalition is no better placed to manage the economy than Labor were and all the carry on by the likes of you over Labor’s debt was just utter nonsense. Why do you think the more balanced and reasonable observers (like me) were saying before the election that the coalition needs to show us their sums? Why do you think Abbott & Hockey refused to do that? Because they knew all the time that there was nothing they could or would do to change the balance sheet. They’re hopeless.

  6. GD says:

    Why do you think the more balanced and reasonable observers (like me) were saying before the election that the coalition needs to show us their sums?

    Well they did Ray, and their figures were right, unlike spend-like-there’s-no-tomorrow Labor Party.

    Read this letter..

    http://lpaweb-static.s3.amazonaws.com/Letter%20from%20Panel.pdf

    btw calling someone a ‘hypocrite’ is not childish. If the cap fits, wear it. In this case, I reckon the cap fits nicely.

  7. GD says:

    What we’ve seen now though, after only 3 months, amounts to an admission that the debt and deficit cannot reasonably be reduced and it was, after all, necessarily incurred

    That is idiotic. Of course it can be reduced, just not in three months. Howard did it after being dumped on with Keating’s legacy of $96 billion deficit.

    Abbott will do the same.

  8. Richard Ryan says:

    God Bless The United States Of Australia.

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    GD, it seems you lack comprehension skills as well as Internet etiquette. I will not “wear” your “hypocrite” insult. I did not say that I “expect the coaltion to reduce the debt and deficit”. You did. And they promised to.

    The point that you seem to have difficulty grasping (or are too blinkered to see and acknowledge), is that the coalition’s pre-election claims about Labor’s economic management were bullshit. And they knew that all along as their last minute budget figures – released when it was too late – confirmed. And since winning the election everything they’ve said confirms that they have no clue how to reduce the debt or deficit, or how to manage the economy any better than Labor were doing.

    Just because Howard inherited an economy that was already well out of recession (5% annual growth for the 2 years prior) and that was set to boom after Keating had set it up to do so, does not mean Abbott can do likewise. Unless, of course, he brings in a 10% GST to boost the coffers. Oh wait, that’s been done!

  10. Iain Hall says:

    Ray the truth about Labor’s woeful mismanagement is laid bare in the latest report about the NBN:

    When launching the Coalition’s NBN policy before the election, Mr Turnbull and Tony Abbott made the signature promise that by the end of 2016 all Australians would have internet download speeds of between 25 and 100 megabits per second, sooner than Labor’s original plan.

    “Disappointingly”, this would no longer be possible, Mr Turnbull told the Parliament on Thursday.

    The review by NBN Co itself and Boston Consulting and the insolvency specialist KordaMentha finds the original plan would require peak funding of $72.6 billion rather than the previously reported $44.1 billion, a difference of $29 billion. The plan would also raise $13 billion to $14 billion less than previously expected and would be delivered three years later.

    The original corporate plan prepared under Labor was “extremely optimistic and very unlikely to be achieved”.

    NBN Co’s decision making had been characterised by “blind faith” in the achievability of the corporate plan “notwithstanding clear factual evidence to the contrary”.

    There was a “relentless focus on the metric of ‘premises passed’ as the single most important of corporate success” to the exclusion of considering the number of premises that were actually connectable and the number connections made.

    Only 357,000 brownfield (existing) premises are likely to be passed by June 2014 rather than the 1.12 million in the corporate plan.

    The cost of some connections would be 80 per cent more than originally forecast.

    The review proposes using a mix of technologies in cities and suburbs, along the lines of the Coalition’s NBN policy, rather than solely fibre-to-the-premises as had been mandated under the previous government.

    Apartment blocks would have fibre connected to their basements rather than to each individual apartment, using existing copper for the rest of the connection; and 3.4 million premises in areas serviceable by pay TV cables would receive speeds of at least 50 megabits per second delivered by cables rather than fibre.

    Australians in areas with short copper connections would receive fibre to the node, delivering high speed without the need to connect new cables to each house.

    In the areas of Australia presently served by fixed lines 26 per cent would receive direct fibre connections, instead of the 100 per cent originally planned, 44 per cent would be serviced by fibre to the node and fibre to the basement, 30 per cent would be serviced by pay television coaxial cables.

    The mix would deliver 91 per cent of customers a speed of at least 50 megabits per second by 2019 rather than 57 per cent as was originally likely.

    It would require capital expenditure of $30 billion and peak funding of $41 billion rather than the $43 billion and $73 billion that were now likely.

    Operating revenue would accumulate to $18 billion by 2021 rather than $10 billion if the mix remains unchanged.

    “The forecasts are conservative,” NBN Co chairman Ziggy Switkowski said. “We have modelled a 20 per cent capital expenditure contingency for our other scenarios rather than the 10 per cent in the original corporate plan.”

    Dr Switkowski said the approach of the review had been to mandate a level of service delivery rather than a technology.

    In some areas that were to be serviced by satellite the review recommends instead direct fibre to the promises connections because it would be cheaper.

    Mr Turnbull said he had asked NBN Co to tell him the truth rather than what it thought he would want to hear.

    Opposition communications spokesman Jason Clare responded in Parliament, accusing the government of breaking “one of the most important promises it made before the election”.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-reveals-plan-to-break-nbn-promise-20131212-2z8ir.html#ixzz2nKWANONp

    They were constantly pulling strokes like this and yet you still believe them to be competent?
    Add to that the reports that Gillard was up to her tits involved with the Union slush fund affair, the pending royal commission into the pink batts thing,The McTeirnan emails leaked to the ABC and we are seeing an ever more shambolic picture of Labor in power that should utterly embarrass any true belier into abstaining and from voting again until they get their house in order enough to earn the votes that have fled from the diseased animal that is the ALP.

  11. Ray Dixon says:

    The only thing that report confirms, Iain, is that the Coalition lied to the electorate prior to the election about how its NBN plan would deliver faster speeds sooner and at a lower cost to the government. What they’re saying – under Ziggy the spin doctor’s ‘advice’ – is they’re scaling back their proposal even further. It’s actually a broken promise.

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