I’ve been struggling to think of how to comment on this Poll and then I read your excellent analysis Yale and naturally I thought that there is no way that I can cover it as well as you do here.
Cheers Comrade Yale
A TUMULTUOUS fortnight in federal politics has produced the first real shock in opinion polling for this parliamentary term, with the highly respected Newspoll finding — for today’s issue of The Australian — a four-point movement to Labor in two weeks to put that party ahead 52-48 after preferences. Some of this is the result of typically filthy Labor Party political tactics. For the Liberals, some of it is self-inflicted.
Nobody should get too excited about these numbers, representing as they do a single poll, and nobody over at the ALP should point to the rogue result posted by Nielsen a fortnight ago — with its election-winning lead for Labor — as evidence of a trend, because it isn’t.
Yet the results of the latest Newspoll represent a clear instance of cause and effect influencing the results of opinion sampling; these do not translate into dire forebodings of doom for…
View original post 1,131 more words