My businessman brother was chiding me this morning for not posting about the stunning victory of the Tony Abbott led LNP this morning but I have been just stepping back and enjoying the way that others have been reacting to the game changing result. From Ray focusing on the real possibility that Sophie Mirrabella may lose her seat of Indi to the despair of the far left zombies like the Taylors at a certain dishevelled electronic Cafe and the pretentious and wilfully obscure pseudo intellectualism of Lavatus Prodeo its all been a bit of a hoot to be honest. I am also very well aware that with the change of government to one that I broadly endorse a political blog like this one faces new challenges. Many readers may now be expecting me to defend the government and the way that it prosecutes its policies. I certainly will defend the policies that I believe in but you won’t find me defending anything that I disagree with just because its something done by “my team” I don’t roll that way. To be entirely Francis I think that we are in for a rather politically boring couple of years and as such there will be far less political stories for me to write about.
As some readers may have noticed I do have interests other than Australian politics so I expect to write a bit more about those topics when the mood takes me I am also hoping that I can make some good progress on my Morris Eight project (depending on my heath issues 😦 ) popular culture topics will feature a bit more and I want to look at some more domestic life issues too. That said I think that you never know just how the issues will present themselves but if you want to keep up with the Sandpit then please subscribe to the blog for email updates.
Anyway I offer this vid for your viewing pleasure:
That all said I am not the only one who writes for this blog and I very much look forward to the other authors here contributing to the debate about the future of our country even when I disagree with their arguments. You see political discussion is not so much about the destination, which is always a moving feast, as much as it is about the journey and the conversations that we have along the way.
- ‘Tony Time’ euphoria for Abbott backers (bbc.co.uk)
- Tony Abbott’s key policies face rough ride in the Senate (theguardian.com)
- Tony Abbott opposed eco-taxes, hate crime laws and gay marriage – and won a landslide (blogs.telegraph.co.uk)
- Conservative Christian Tony Abbott wins majority in Australia (winteryknight.wordpress.com)
I think we’re in for a pretty dull & boring 3 years, politically speaking. Once again, the Coalition is taking office AFTER Labor has had to do the hard yards and endure crushing world economic circumstances. It seems that Labor is the party you want in charge when things are tough, as they were in the oil crisis of the early 70s, the stock market crash of 1987 that led to a world recession and the GFC of 2008/9. Labor deals with those matters and gets us through (although maybe not in Gough’s case, but certainly in Hawke/Keating’s & Rudd’s cases), while the Libs then come in and take advantage of the good work. Make no mistake, Abbott is going to have an easy ride because our economy is still in good shape and there is a lot of upside in front of us.
And I think Abbott will NOT go to an early double dissolution over the carbon tax because (a) another election next year will not go down well with the electorate (b) a full Senate election is unlikely to give him a balance of power in the Upper House anyway and would most likely see even more fringe/fruitcake groups gain a seat (due to the lower quota required). Sure, if he wins the lower house he could then call a joint sitting of both houses to get the repeal through, but somehow I don’t think Tony will mind if the carbon tax stays. After all, it’s $billions in revenue and governments don’t like giving up streams of revenue like that. I’ve always said that Abbott would keep the carbon tax and I reckon he will. He’ll just make some excuse and blame it on Labor and the Greens. That’s politics.
If there is any lesson to be learned from the Labor experience of the last six years its that to make threats that you fail to follow through on is political death. The whole point of a DD election is to pass bills blocked by the senate rather than to try to get control of the upper house. Abbott will be a man of his word on the threat to do so because were he to imp out he would be finished politically. In essence he has everything to lose by whimping out so he won’t.
I think that the ALP will make some obstructive noises in the beginning but concede when it comes to the crunch so that they can say that they are doing their job as an opposition but that they also have to respect the mandate.
The big plus for all sides of politics here has to be the decline of the Greens and the fact that they will not have a strangle hold on the senate.
Iain, I think Abbott will put the Carbon tax and Mining tax repeals in the same bill. It’ll pass the lower house but then be rejected in the Senate. Abbott will then negotiate with Labor and agree to take the repeal of the Carbon tax out of the bill and Labor will then pass the bill (repealling the Mining tax only) in the Senate. And Abbott will say, “well I tried but at least I got the Mining tax repealed”. Because that’s all he really wants to do. And because that’s all he has to do to appease the big mining companies and magnates like Rinehart & Forrest. He’ll probably come out with something called “the truth” to justify it all – given that repealling the carbon tax won’t reduce energy prices anyway. That’s my prediction.
No Ray that does not make sense anywhere but Labor land. The carbon tax is the cornerstone of his election success and that will be repealed by hook or by crook. He has said more than once that both will go and that he won’t squib on his promises so that is what he will do.
If anything the Mining tax will be easier to pass because even the minions of the Labor party understand that it is so flawed that it won’t be missed.
We’ll see, Iain. Don’t be surprised if Abbott goes back on his word of “no carbon tax under my government”.