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Newspoll: Rudd On Track For Landslide Defeat

 Kevin Rudd's voter support has fallen to a record low in the latest Newspoll. Source: The Sunday Mail (Qld)

Kevin Rudd’s voter support has fallen to a record low in the latest Newspoll. Source: The Sunday Mail (Qld)

As I have felt for a while I see Labor federally following the same script as the Bligh government exited under up here in Queensland. If I may be as bold as to suggest that the land slid will be of the same sort of magnitude as well and if that is the case it will take the greatest type of discipline for an Abbot government to resit the call of hubris and over reach, however I think that Abbott has a real desire to retain office for a long time and I hope that desire will steady his hand far more than closer numbers in the parliament would.

Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.

Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent as Mr Abbott spent much of last week campaigning against minority government, ruling out doing a deal with the Greens and challenging Mr Rudd to follow.

On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.

Labor is now facing a four-point swing away from it since the last election, which would cost the government at least 14 seats if the poll were held now and the swing was uniform across the nation.

The latest Newspoll had a larger sample size and the margin of error, normally three points, dropped to just more than two points, giving greater accuracy.

Acknowledging Labor’s dire position in the polls, Finance Minister and campaign spokeswoman Penny Wong said yesterday that if the election had been held on Saturday, “Mr Abbott would be prime minister”.

While polls in specific seats have shown big swings against Labor, the worst trend for the government has been a sharp decline in the popularity of Mr Rudd and counter-rise for Mr Abbott.

Voter satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped four points to 35 per cent, and dissatisfaction jumped six points, to 54 per cent – the worst personal support Mr Rudd has ever had as prime minister and just below when he was dumped three years ago.

Since Mr Rudd’s high point in voter support after his return in the first week of last month – 43 per cent satisfaction and 36 per cent dissatisfaction – voter satisfaction has fallen steadily by eight points and dissatisfaction has jumped 18 points.

Mr Rudd’s net satisfaction rating is -19, compared with +7 at the beginning of last month.

source

Cheers Comrade Yale

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51 Comments

  1. James says:

    As I think I’ve said here before, my entire working life has been in the media, Radio, Television and newspapers in Australia and overseas and maintain strong ties with colleagues.

    The word around the press gallery is that Rudd is having so called private tantrum moments, is imploding, arguing with his advisors and being Kevin and just doing his own thing. That’s pretty evident when even his closest or so called closest ministers don’t even know minute to minute what is going to be offered from his mouth next in the way of policy etc. You only have to have seen the interviews with Bill Shorten on the Northern Australian announcement and Shorten being caught completely off guard and lost for an answer about the policy.

    Rudd burst back onto the scene as the born again messiah of Federal Labor with the first words from his mouth being an end to negative politics, Ä New Way”, and then about six words later was on the negative back track with every second word being Tony Abbott this and Tony Abbott that.

    So his ‘The New Way’ lasted about 30 secs.

    If as I am told and Rudd is flying his own flag, having an on going Captains pick he’s certainly not as bright as he would tell you he is.

    If that isn’t fully bthe case, well Labor’s strategists and media advisors should all be sacked, because clearly they are feeding him all the wrong material.

    There’s an ingrain Australian trait that we as a populous don’t like to see the boot continually put in, and the way Rudd is campaigning that’s all he’s doing, rather than keeping to policy and selling that, he’s on a Tony Abbott bashing trail.

    The more times he and the rest of their crew mention the name Tony Abbott, it’s another $1 the LNP can save on advertising and it’s another percentum they lose in the public eyes and the polls..

  2. Ray Dixon says:

    While we’re in ‘copy & paste from other blogs’ mode, Iain, I think your mate Reb has neatly summed it up:

    http://thedailytrash.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/introducing-prime-minister-tony-abbott/

    Despite an environment of low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates and a fairly buoyant economy (by world standards), Australians are set to turf the incumbent government in favour of a motley rabble who have presented little in the way of alternative policies and costings, opting instead to mouth-off incessantly with three-word slogans and pamphlets that are somehow meant to constitute comprehensive plans of an alternative government agenda.

    It’s a sad indictment on the state of politics and the mindset of the Australian public that they’ve managed to make it within striking distance of victory with little more than just vile hate-filled invective as their main arsenal.

    …. If you want a vision of what an Abbott-led government will look like we only need to take a glance at what’s happening in the UK or Queensland. It’s not going to be pretty.

    He’s right – the coalition will only win by default and, as Rudd says, it’s going to be “your loss”.

  3. Iain Hall says:

    Ray

    While we’re in ‘copy & paste from other blogs’ mode, Iain, I think your mate Reb has neatly summed it up:

    http://thedailytrash.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/introducing-prime-minister-tony-abbott/

    Yes I have commented on Reb’s post and while I agree with his premise that Abbott will win I don’t buy his (and your) conclusion that the government will be terrible,or that the people don’t want Abbott, clearly the polls are say the opposite to that. I think that you will find that when the landslide has happened that it will be rather silly to suggest that Abbott will have own by default.
    none the less I will adress Rebs points in turn:

    Despite an environment of low unemployment, low inflation, low interest rates and a fairly buoyant economy (by world standards), Australians are set to turf the incumbent government in favour of a motley rabble who have presented little in the way of alternative policies and costings, opting instead to mouth-off incessantly with three-word slogans and pamphlets that are somehow meant to constitute comprehensive plans of an alternative government agenda.

    This claim is based upon the implication that the government can legitimately claim credit for all of these economic virtues. Which I think is an invalid claim from the ALP. the second point here is the suggestion that the coalition lacks vision. Well lets just contrast them to the ALP which is very big on grand plans and vision but they totally suck at delivering the actuality of delivering their schemes in a timely manner and any where near the mooted cost (the NBN is a perfect example) frankly I would much prefer less grand schemes and more sound delivery of more modest schemes which is the Coalition way.
    Up here in Queensland it has become the practice to offer completion dates for projects that have a very generous time line and more than once I have seen them finished early which has to be a PR bonus.

    It’s a sad indictment on the state of politics and the mindset of the Australian public that they’ve managed to make it within striking distance of victory with little more than just vile hate-filled invective as their main arsenal.

    That is totally Rebs confirmation bias in action The fact that Labor have utterly imploded under the Rudd Gillard rivalry and the administrative incompetence.

    …. If you want a vision of what an Abbott-led government will look like we only need to take a glance at what’s happening in the UK or Queensland. It’s not going to be pretty.

    In both cases Cameron and Newman have had to take hard decisions to fix the legacy of Labor exceses and both have been recovering from the unpopularity

    He’s right – the coalition will only win by default and, as Rudd says, it’s going to be “your loss”.

    No that is his projection because like you he is loathe to admit that Labor have fucked it up during the last six years.

    James

    As I think I’ve said here before, my entire working life has been in the media, Radio, Television and newspapers in Australia and overseas and maintain strong ties with colleagues.

    I don’t recall you saying that James but good fo you in being able to keep up your friendhips that is hard when you are out of the loop.

    The word around the press gallery is that Rudd is having so called private tantrum moments, is imploding, arguing with his advisors and being Kevin and just doing his own thing. That’s pretty evident when even his closest or so called closest ministers don’t even know minute to minute what is going to be offered from his mouth next in the way of policy etc. You only have to have seen the interviews with Bill Shorten on the Northern Australian announcement and Shorten being caught completely off guard and lost for an answer about the policy.

    I can believe that form the difference in his body language in his most recent press events.

    Rudd burst back onto the scene as the born again messiah of Federal Labor with the first words from his mouth being an end to negative politics, Ä New Way”, and then about six words later was on the negative back track with every second word being Tony Abbott this and Tony Abbott that.

    Now he just looks like a surly “naughty boy”

    So his ‘The New Way’ lasted about 30 secs.

    Well I never believed it

    If as I am told and Rudd is flying his own flag, having an on going Captains pick he’s certainly not as bright as he would tell you he is.

    Rudd seems to be delusional to me.

    If that isn’t fully the case, well Labor’s strategists and media advisors should all be sacked, because clearly they are feeding him all the wrong material.

    They have to heart in the process as far as I can see.

    There’s an ingraind Australian trait that we as a populous don’t like to see the boot continually put in, and the way Rudd is campaigning that’s all he’s doing, rather than keeping to policy and selling that, he’s on a Tony Abbott bashing trail.

    That is true and the contrast between Abbott’s campaign is most stark his adds are upbeat and positive abd the looks the part for the office he is seeking .

    The more times he and the rest of their crew mention the name Tony Abbott, it’s another $1 the LNP can save on advertising and it’s another percentum they lose in the public eyes and the polls..

    That is the danger of negative campaigning when the line is not believed isn’t it?

    Tony

    As for your article Iain, wasn’t Western Sydney one of the main places for resettlement of refugees some years ago ?
    As such, labor’s announcement, that future boat people will NOT be resettled in Australia, may be the reason as to why the electoral backlash in that area ? No family reunification scheme ? I think you have to look at figures at other “swinging” seats to ascertain any reliable trend ?

    The no family reunion thing only applies to those on TPVs not those who have come here in the proper manner.

  4. Tony says:

    Sorry, missed your response, expected that on the other thread, but never mind.
    You’re right. If you arrive in the proper manner, and have done the right thing (i.e. arrived legally, not on a leaky boat, with your hand out, saying when can I bring the folks, and fifteen cousins out ?), then I whole heartedly agree. Wasn’t western Sydney though, an area for resettlement of the refugees, that arrived in the 90’s and onward ? That is what I was referring to ?

    On another matter, the “true state of the economy” figures, have been released, and I wonder as to why we haven’t heard just how bad the real fiscal situation is yet ? I know I am harping on this matter, but it is an important one, and would be one of the major liberal tactics, that would seriously kill any chance labor had, to resurrect their electoral plight ?

    It would be like torpedoing a sinking ship. The quick sinking of Captain Rudd’s Good Ship Lollipop ?

  5. James says:

    I think the photo below pretty well sums it all up on several fronts, Rudds mental state at this time is captured beautifully. Is this not the face of a man defeated already?

  6. Ray Dixon says:

    I think this says a lot more:
    .

  7. Ray Dixon says:

    And this one:
    .

  8. James says:

    Photo 1: Shows a man about to drop his bundle big time.

    2: Shows strength and determination.

    3: Shows someone who’s obviously well equipped to and happy to be at the head of the pack.

  9. Iain Hall says:

    I’m fond of this one ant this as well

  10. Ray Dixon says:

    And there’s our favourite gal, Sophie, over here in Indi (forgetting she’s got a real fight just to keep her own seat).

    This ones’s worth a caption, Iain:
    .

  11. Tony says:

    Oh gawd, there goes my appetite for dinner ?
    😦

  12. James says:

    We had a delightful dinner this evening, went out for dinner and had a .. Liberal … serving of various Chinese dishes and the best part of all was, the wife didn’t have to … Labor … over a hot stove. 😀

  13. GD says:

    We had a delightful dinner this evening, went out for dinner and had a .. Liberal … serving of various Chinese dishes and the best part of all was, the wife didn’t have to … Labor … over a hot stove.

    Nicely put, James.

    Unfortunately under the incoming Liberal government we, and generations after us, will have to labour to pay back the debt incurred recklessly by Rudd/Gillard Labor during their last six years of policy failure and economic profligacy. Add to that the ongoing repercussions of opening of our borders to all and sundry and the subsequent granting of welfare payments to all and sundry, whether or not they qualify for refugee status.

    Fortunately the Libs are skilled at averting financial disaster, having already experienced it with the Keating regime and the recession that we didn’t have to have.

    In 1996, the Libs picked up the pieces, pulling Keating’s $96 billion net debt and his $10 billion Budget deficit back to zero.

    Eleven years later Howard left the incoming Labor neophytes with $70 billion in net assets and a $20 billion surplus.

    Unfortunately for Australia, Rudd and Swan squandered that colossal sum by subsidising futile green schemes, failed initiatives and splurging on welfare for the largest influx of illegal asylum seekers in Australia’s history.

    Once again we, and generations after us, will have to labour to pay back the debt incurred recklessly by Rudd/Gillard Labor during their last six years of policy failure and economic profligacy.

  14. Richard Ryan says:

    “Squandered that colossal sum—-blah-blah GD and his Liberal mantra’s—–c*nts like you start revolutions. I bet you would be the life of the party. Eleven years of Howard’s rule, knocked back every pay rise for low paid workers—thanks to mother f*ckers like you. Now go and have your prostate checked—–you may have the big C.

  15. Iain Hall says:

    You sound rather desperate Richard, it must be because you now see the reality of an Abbott government only a matter of weeks away.
    I note too that you have said nothing about the bet (with odds) that I offered you yesterday….

  16. Richard Ryan says:

    Abbott will never be leader of this country, how many times have I to repeat it.

  17. Richard Ryan says:

    Imagine that arse on the world stage—-a man who does not know how to kiss a woman, is not fit to be leader of this country. Imposter of the first order is our Abbott, maybe his problem is, he bumped into too many pedophiles when he was training to be a Catholic Priest at the seminar.

  18. Iain Hall says:

    Care to step up and take that bet Richard?

  19. Ray Dixon says:

    we, and generations after us, will have to labour to pay back the debt incurred recklessly by Rudd/Gillard Labor during their last six years

    So you’ll be working harder and paying more taxes, GD? Good to hear it, mate. Why not go the whole hog and take up busking on the streets in Western Sydney to compensate? Just remember to declare all the coins thrown in your hat and pay your share in tax. Come on, we’re relying on you to get us out of debt. You’re a champ, mate.

  20. Ray Dixon says:

    GD in Lakemba, living up to his promise:
    .

  21. Richard Ryan says:

    IS GD and Iain the same person?

  22. Iain Hall says:

    No GD and I are not one person Richard, and are you up for that bet?

  23. Ray Dixon says:

    They’re not the same person, Richard. GD is far more extreme right wing than Iain.

  24. Richard Ryan says:

    Yeah,the bet is on, Abbott will never be leader of this country.

  25. Old Norm says:

    Iain, I’ve been reading your site for a week or so. Well done on running a lively blog.
    Gents, in my opinion I don’t think it matters who is elected next month. The problem with Australia is not with its political leaders but with its population. We are being paralyzed and driven backwards by a narcissistic culture of self entitlement. Too many people believe that society and the government exists to sustain them. Too many people do not work and contribute little or nothing to their community or society at large. Too many people who do work think they are owed a fortune. Did you know there are workers in the La Trobe Valley who earn between $120-220,000 a year and they are STILL demanding more? We are becoming a society of ‘takers’ instead of ‘givers’ and ‘contributors’. I see many examples of this every week. Eventually this culture change will result in the collapse of our society. Whoever leads us (Rudd or Abbott) can do little to stop it.

  26. Old Norm says:

    P.S.
    Oh and if GD is really a musician and is claiming that society is being wrecked by the ALP, maybe he should take a look in a mirror. Musicians are one group who contribute little if anything to our economy. I have known several and know for a fact that they work mostly “for cash” and therefore dodge taxation and accountability. Another group comprised mainly of social and economic parasites.

  27. Byron Webb says:

    You and your labor Green mates will be defeated by a big margin at the polls Ray. Stop making excuses. How dare Labor take the people as fools and think they will vote for a prime minister whohas delivered nothing and making so many promesses just like 2007.

  28. Byron Webb says:

    Ray please make sure you join me for a drink when Sophie is returned. How sweet its going to be.

  29. Byron Webb says:

    Keep the churches out of it Richard. We all vote and have long memories. Your comments are discusting.

  30. Byron Webb says:

    Another boat yet again Ray. Your policies are useless. Take those adds of the TV. Labor has no answers to boarder protection. Howards Pacific solution worked and you just hate to say it.

  31. Ray Dixon says:

    Hi Byron – doing your Sophie bidding again, I see? Anyway, to respond:

    1. The Greens are certainly not my “mates”. Surely you’ve read enough of my posts & comments over the years to know that I think the Greens are extremists, dreamers, arrogant, aloof, elitist, loopy and of no real consequence.

    2. The reason the boats are still coming is Tony Abbott’s fault. He is the one telling them that asylum seekers will still get a Visa (albeit a temporary one) if they make the trip, whereas Rudd only offers them a one-way ticket to PNG. Your man Abbott is deliberately undermining Rudd’s policy and encouraging more boats to arrive right up to the election – because it suits his campaign to win government. He is untrustworthy and damaging our immigration process. He is not fit to govern.

    3. Sophie is in a real battle with the independent McGowan and it’s about time. I’ll certainly be voting for Cathy, not the ALP or Greens. Sophie has failed Indi over her 12 years and it’s time we were rid of her.

  32. Richard Ryan says:

    Tony Abbott’s mantra: The working class can kiss my arse I am the PM at last.

  33. Richard Ryan says:

    Byron Webb is now having wet-dreams about Sophie, “oh oh Sophie I love you dressed up in a nuns habit” says Webb.

  34. Richard Ryan says:

    GD= Economic Parasite.

  35. GD says:

    Tony Abbott’s mantra:

    The working class can kiss my arse
    I am the PM at last.

    wow, Richard, you almost wrote a rhyme there, well done.

    Keep going, you may get a job at the the Age as an opinionista.

    They love anyone who writes about hating Tony Abbott.

    Although it’s funny that Fairfax shares are in the toilet at the moment and about to go down the tubes.

  36. GD says:

    Old Norm reckoned:

    I have known several and know for a fact that they work mostly “for cash” and therefore dodge taxation and accountability. Another group comprised mainly of social and economic parasites.

    Well that’s easy to explain, Norm. You’ve only ever met buskers or derelict Greens voters strumming guitars and toking on the bong.

    In the real world it’s a lot different to that.

  37. Richard Ryan says:

    GD reckons he is better then anyone in the music world—-that is why he uses a screen name, to avoid paying taxes. Listen you F*CK WIT, a thousand buskers is worth one your physically repugnant type.

  38. GD says:

    The reason the boats are still coming is Tony Abbott’s fault.

    Ray you’re starting to sound delusional. Really, Abbott is that all-powerful that he can command the boats to come?

    He is the one telling them that asylum seekers will still get a Visa (albeit a temporary one) if they make the trip, whereas Rudd only offers them a one-way ticket to PNG

    So far about 300 people have been sent to Manus Island. In the same period, over 2,700 have arrived. So much for offering a one-way ticket. The PNG prime minister has agreed to a limit of approximately 3,000.

    So much for Rudd’s PNG solution. Yes, Ray, it’s all Tony Abbott’s fault.

  39. Ray Dixon says:

    GD, if you’re going to quote me please don’t cherry pick and please include the main point(s) of my comment, which I’ve bolded for you, in case you’ve missed it:

    The reason the boats are still coming is Tony Abbott’s fault. He is the one telling them that asylum seekers will still get a Visa (albeit a temporary one) if they make the trip, whereas Rudd only offers them a one-way ticket to PNG. Your man Abbott is deliberately undermining Rudd’s policy and encouraging more boats to arrive right up to the election – because it suits his campaign to win government. He is untrustworthy and damaging our immigration process. He is not fit to govern.

    Get it? The people smugglers are using a spiel along these lines: “Don’t worry about Rudd & PNG because Tony Abbott will be Prime Minister soon and he has said you will get a temporary protection visa. He will allow you entry into Australia on a TPV and you will get the dole while you wait for your application to be processed.”

    It beats me why Labor hasn’t yet pounded this message home.

  40. Ray Dixon says:

    and if you don’t believe that, GD, please answer this question:

    We are less than 3 weeks out from the election and according to all the media reports and opinion polls, the coalition will win by a fair margin. They are red hot favourites. News of that AND of Abbott’s alternative asylum seeker policy would certainly have spread overseas to Indonesia and other places where asylum seekers and people smugglers would have heard it and be well aware that Abbott is going to be PM soon. Yet the boats still come. Why?

  41. Byron Webb says:

    Ray I really look foreword to keeping in touch with you on election night.

  42. Ray Dixon says:

    What for Byron? I thought the result was already a forgone conclusion – the coalition by heaps and I can’t see anything changing in the next 2 1/2 weeks unless Abbott stuffs up somehow.

    As for Indi, there’s no doubt Sophie will lose votes to the independent Cathy McGowan and, equally, that McGowan will pick up the lion’s share of the preferences from the other runners. It’s Sophie’s to lose and, although she’s probably still favoured to hang on, there’s no doubt she’s very unpopular and is in for the fight of her life.

    Still, if she loses it won’t be so bad for her – she’ll get a huge payout and a huge parliamentary pension for life. With that and the $1 million house she nicked inherited off Colin Howard (her elderly, mentally impaired former lover) she should be quite okay and never have to work again (just like her lazy hubby). Not that she ever did much work in her entire 12 years as our MP.

  43. Byron Webb says:

    Then i must ask you Ray. If you voted Labor at the last election, you have no rite to complain as they got into bed with the Greens to hang on to power. That is going to haunt them for a very long time. As for Independants, i dont believe there is such a thing. You are either on one side or the other.

  44. Ray Dixon says:

    Byron, when one casts one’s private vote at the ballot box, one gives up no rights whatsoever. Political parties will do what they do and I don’t like it that Gillard sold out to the Greens on carbon tax either. Then again, your lot (the Liberals) gets into bed with the crusty old retrograde Nats and has done so since Menzies. As for independents, likewise they are entitled to vote with whichever side they see fit. If you have a point here, Byron, I’m not sure what it is.

  45. Byron Webb says:

    The Liberals and Nationals always announce before an election that they will form a Coalition. You know that Ray. If push came to shove, labor would govern with the Greens just like Tasmaina, South Australia and the ACT. The Coalition will put the Greens last you know that. Now ask your mate Kevin where he stands on this issue?

  46. Byron Webb says:

    Lets look foreward to the forum Ray. Should be good.

  47. Richard Ryan says:

    OFF TOPIC: When are these f*ck-wits in the Department Of Foreign Affairs And Trade going to start giving travel advice of the dangers of travel to Aussies in America.

  48. Richard Ryan says:

    IS it because it might offend our war partners?

  49. Byron Webb says:

    A great victory by Abbott tonight. A polished preformance. Cop that one Ray!!!

  50. Richard Ryan says:

    Tony Abbott’s booklet Real Solutions I have alongside Mein Kempf, on my book shelf, heil Abbott.

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