As I have felt for a while I see Labor federally following the same script as the Bligh government exited under up here in Queensland. If I may be as bold as to suggest that the land slid will be of the same sort of magnitude as well and if that is the case it will take the greatest type of discipline for an Abbot government to resit the call of hubris and over reach, however I think that Abbott has a real desire to retain office for a long time and I hope that desire will steady his hand far more than closer numbers in the parliament would.
Labor’s primary vote, at 34 per cent, is now at its lowest level since Mr Rudd removed Julia Gillard as prime minister and the Coalition’s primary vote of 47 per cent is at its highest during the same time.
Primary support for the Greens dropped from 11 per cent to 9 per cent as Mr Abbott spent much of last week campaigning against minority government, ruling out doing a deal with the Greens and challenging Mr Rudd to follow.
On a two-party-preferred basis, based on preference flows at the 2010 election, Labor’s support has dropped two percentage points, to 46 per cent, and the Coalition’s support has risen to 54 per cent.
Labor is now facing a four-point swing away from it since the last election, which would cost the government at least 14 seats if the poll were held now and the swing was uniform across the nation.
The latest Newspoll had a larger sample size and the margin of error, normally three points, dropped to just more than two points, giving greater accuracy.
Acknowledging Labor’s dire position in the polls, Finance Minister and campaign spokeswoman Penny Wong said yesterday that if the election had been held on Saturday, “Mr Abbott would be prime minister”.
While polls in specific seats have shown big swings against Labor, the worst trend for the government has been a sharp decline in the popularity of Mr Rudd and counter-rise for Mr Abbott.
Voter satisfaction with Mr Rudd dropped four points to 35 per cent, and dissatisfaction jumped six points, to 54 per cent – the worst personal support Mr Rudd has ever had as prime minister and just below when he was dumped three years ago.
Since Mr Rudd’s high point in voter support after his return in the first week of last month – 43 per cent satisfaction and 36 per cent dissatisfaction – voter satisfaction has fallen steadily by eight points and dissatisfaction has jumped 18 points.
Mr Rudd’s net satisfaction rating is -19, compared with +7 at the beginning of last month.
Cheers Comrade Yale
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