Iain Hall's SANDPIT

50/50

With complements to GD for finding this most apt cartoon

 2013/07/28 at 6:51 PM |

Thanks, Iain. I look forward to your post on the latest polls showing it’s 50/50, indicating that Rudd has not only lifted Labor’s vote, he’s also holding it firm. This could be the best election ever.

Ray Dixon

It seems that our New Again Dear Leader is maintaining his personal popularity  and those on the left who are terrified of  the prospect of good governance under a Coalition government are beginning to find a faint glimmer of hope that the continued popularity of the new New Again Dear Leader may yet allow the forces of darkness to continue their tenure in the lodge. I can’t see it happening to be honest, especially in the light of the conversations that I have been having with the ordinary punters out there in voter-land. On several occasions I have heard people express the view that they  are profoundly cynical about the  New Again Dear Leader  and the rabble he leads  even if they are  less than into cheering for Tony Abbott with great vigor. The real question that the nation faces is do we want an ego-maniacal New Again Dear Leader running the show or do we want a grown up who will return the focus onto good governance and sound workable policy .

Cheers Comrades

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19 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    On the other hand, Iain, I’ve had conversations with die-hard Liberal voters who agree that Rudd is a far better PM, that Abbott is floundering and that they don’t want him as PM. They’ll still vote Liberal though (because they’re diehards), but just imagine how that perception is affecting those in the middle ground. That’s why the polls are running 50/50 with Rudd well ahead as preferred PM.

  2. Iain Hall says:

    Well the people I spoke to were classic “swinging” and or people who were otherwise indifferent to politics
    and they saw Rudd as “smarmy” and “sleazy” and driven entirely by petty personal desires for vindication. As it now looks like Rudd won’t be going to the polls before the very last possible moment he will find that the honeymoon will be well and truly over by then.

  3. Ray Dixon says:

    Oh well, Iain, in that case the opinion polls are probably a better guide than our own personal mini surveys, wouldn’t you say? And what do the polls say again?

  4. James says:

    Rudd/Labor are about to get a swift kick up the Khyber Pass in NSW this week I think. The ICAC enquiry into all things Labor NSW and some of their better known crooks is to, I think, hand down there findings, and boy of boy you’ll hear the fallout all over the country.

  5. GD says:

    And what do the polls say again?

    Essential Media July 29 poll has Labor 49, Coalition 51

    http://essentialvision.com.au/category/essentialreport

  6. Ray Dixon says:

    Who the hell are Essential Media and how are their polls conducted?

  7. Iain Hall says:

    They are one of the big polling organisations Ray and their polls are done the same way as the others, similar sample size and methodology. In fact the sallient fact here is that even with Rudd’s star performance he is not in a position to win the election and the “50/50” number is predicated upon the way that the preferences flowed at the last poll and there is no guarantee that they will work the same way this time.

  8. Tony says:

    I think it is all too early to even consider possible election results here.
    The date still hasn’t been announced, and has been experienced by every change in leadership (except Gillard ?), of a political party for decades, is that the new leader always enjoys a honeymoon period. Rudd is still smack in the middle of that at the moment.
    Labour are still floundering. I have said here that I prefer Rudd over Abbott. That said, it will still not be enough for this swinging voter, to vote for labour again. This country can simply not afford it anymore ?

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    Iain, I’ve gone all over their website and it does not say how they conduct their polls. I get the impression they are ‘Internet Surveys’, which are hardly a good guide.

    Looking at their recent polls they’ve been out of synch with all the recognised ones like Nielsen, Morgan & Galaxy for the past month. And while they show the two party preferred as ALP 49 Coalition 51, more importantly, they also show that (according to their surveys) Rudd has improved from a 47/53 position earlier in the month.

    That survey hardly supports your contention that Rudd “is not in a position to win the election”, in fact it says the opposite. Whether it’s 50/50 or 51/49 is neither here nor there and this election is anyone’s game. You should stop the barracking, Iain – your arm must be sore from waving those blue Coalition floggers.

  10. Iain Hall says:

    Ray

    Polls all work essentially the same way and while there is some variation in the precise questions asked and the sample size the variation between the essential poll and the others is well within the margin of error so lets not get too excited about their result being a couple of points ahead of the others. That said Rudd is going to have to be consistently in positive territory if he is to have any hope of winning and I see no sign of that at all.
    Further I have never pretended that I have no result preference for the next election so I see no reason not write pieces that endorse my favoured outcome. Frankly I think that its very telling that you don’t have the heart to defend or endorse the Rudd government that you so long wished for. To me that says that the reality does not have the sweet taste you imagined it would have when we were under the yoke of the Red Barren.

  11. Ray Dixon says:

    On the contrary Iain, I have clearly stated that I believe a Rudd-led Labor govt would be much better for Australia’s future than an Abbott-led coalition. There are many reasons why I think Rudd deserves another term but I’ll reserve my full opinion until later … until we’re much closer to the actual election date. I’ll write a post about it. He may not win but, at the very least, Kevin Rudd has altered the political landscape to the point where we now face two very serious options. We’re coming to a crossroads and it’s going to be very close. And we’ll all be better for it. Can’t wait for the real game to begin.

  12. GD says:

    Who the hell are Essential Media and how are their polls conducted?

    Not heard of Essential Media? Even Wikipedia has; perhaps you should get around the media more. Yes, their polling is internet based. The Wiki page on polling companies links to over seventy weekly poll pdfs by Essential. Page 8 of each pdf lists the methodology and credentials.

    Got a problem with internet polling? Prefer landline phone polling? Or do you value mobile phone polling over internet based polling?

    Well welcome to the 21st Century..

    Really, Ray, admit you prefer whichever poll shows Labor and KRudd in the ascendancy.

  13. GD says:

    Iain:

    Frankly I think that its very telling that you don’t have the heart to defend or endorse the Rudd government that you so long wished for.

    Ray:

    On the contrary Iain, I have clearly stated that I believe a Rudd-led Labor govt would be much better

    Ray, ‘clearly stating that you believe’ is not defending a Rudd government.

    All you’ve done is spruik the Ruddster and suggest that he has some policies that us conservatives will blanch at.

    However, Rudd has shown he has no policies other than winding back his 2007 policies and introducing an ill-advised PNG solution to the asylum seeker problem that he created.

    There are many reasons why I think Rudd deserves another term but I’ll reserve my full opinion until later

    Why hold back Ray?

    Perhaps you’re waiting for him to do something other than staging photo-ops in Afghanistan, posting ‘selfies’ on twitter and upsetting PNG, Fiji and the rest of Melanesia.

    If you had something to crow about, we’d be hearing it.

    All you’ve got to crow about now is that Rudd is up in the polls, well some of them, Essential notwithstanding.

  14. James says:

    Mr Krudd is so confident, he’s now importing Yanks to run his election campaign.

    Shades of the unreal Julia and her British import.

    Bit of an insult to Australian professionals in the media spin game, and what happened to all that, we are the party for giving Australian jobs?

  15. Iain Hall says:

    Yeah I heard that this morning on the radio its sadly typical that The new again Dear Leader should try to con his way into office by seducing the young and ignorant through the social media.

  16. Ray Dixon says:

    GD,

    Essential Media polls are not quoted anywhere else and are not held up as indicative of voter intention by any serious commentator. As for being in Wikipedia, even Ivan Milat rates a page there. Just being in an online encyclopedia that records every triviality in the world does not a serious opinion poll make.

    And I prefer phone polls over Internet surveys any day. Phone polls randomly select voters and do not allow duplicate responses, whereas online polling is easily manipulated.

    As for my support of Rudd, the reason I’m not “crowing” about him is because, unlike you, I don’t “crow”. And unlike you I’m not a barracking, one-eyed supporter of my team spitting invective and insult at the other team and/or anyone who disagrees with me.

  17. Iain Hall says:

    As an aside just what are you munching on in your new profile picture Ray? It looks like a big slab of fat!

  18. Ray Dixon says:

    Look at the background, Iain. It’s a hunk of snow. The shot was taken on Mt Buffalo last week.

  19. Iain Hall says:

    COOL…………. 😉

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