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Thrift-shop Rudd

Ray has been rather fond of suggesting that I keep watching the polls since the Rudd revival show began and like a dutiful friend I have been doing just that. To be entirely francis  I have been a little concerned that the Rudd euphoria may be sustained for longer than I, as a conservative, would like. Each new poll lauded by the true believers has made me rather worried that this shambolic government might just mange to con its way back into office, a prospect that I consider to be  a disaster for the country. Thankfully my watching the polls has been made worth while by the latest Newspoll   in today’s Oz:

click for source

click for source

From my perspective that is a beautiful set of numbers, it could of course be better but it does suggest to me that Labor have already peaked and that the Rudd factor will not be enough to return Labor to office as some desperate minions of the left have dared to dream over the last couple of weeks. Instead its getting back into the “lifeline zone” where some of the shabby furniture may be saved or replaced with op-shop bargains. You see after Gillard just doing that will be enough to make Rudd a party hero to ALP stalwarts Like Ray so in one sense he can not loose at the next election even as he hands over the keys to the lodge he will be a winner ( of sorts)  for saving the party from the fate that Gillard’s incompetence had booked for them.

Just a thought about the changes wrought by Rudd to the leadership of the ALP to finish on.  Simply put as I understand the party rules and teh way that such organisations work there is likely to be no obstruction to his much vaunted rules about removing leaders being revoked by a simple vote at the party’s national conference and once the rule is gone then so to is the leader’s invulnerability to a coup or removal from office by a simple majority… just saying …

Cheers Comrades

walks

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51 Comments

  1. Iain, I tend to think this might — might — represent the point Labor’s fortunes resume their downward drift; Rudd has had his moment of glory, and by savouring it too long has squandered any chance he may have had of turning it into an election win.

    Of course, the Coalition could panic, and change leaders — the one thing that could alter that. It is nothing against Malcolm at all, but in the absence of Liberal leadership turmoil (and WorkChoices) Rudd is a loser, not a winner, but Turnbull couldn’t even get near level with him as leader, despite a very similar set of circumstances to work with to what Tony Abbott eventually had.

  2. Iain Hall says:

    I just can’t see any sort of challenge from Malcolm at any time soon Yale, he has an air of contentment about his current place in the scheme of things and I think that he is far more concerned with taking the fight to Labor than he is about wanting another sit in the big chair.

  3. Ray Dixon says:

    Oh, Iain, all you can take from that one News Ltd opinion poll (the first one you’ve actually been game to comment on since Rudd regained the leadership) is that the government has significantly closed the gap on the coalition and that it’s going to be a very close election. Support for Labor has clearly surged over the past 4 weeks since Rudd returned and one opinion poll showing it has slipped back slightly from 50 to 48% does not mean much at all. My message is the same: keep watching those polls. I think you’ll find they’ll remain tight right up to the election.

  4. Iain Hall says:

    Well I think that this Poll shows Labor has peaked and it was no surprise that after Gillard there should be some recovery in their numbers, frankly a “drover’s dog” would have got almost as much bounce after Gillard. That said lets see how the NEXT few weeks go because I expect no great improvement for Rudd.

  5. Ray Dixon says:

    a “drover’s dog” would have got almost as much bounce after Gillard

    Iain, are you seriously suggesting someone other than Rudd would have lifted the ALP’s stocks back to almost even? Who? I think you’re reading too much into one News Ltd poll that still shows the parties are very close, that the ALP has significantly increased its primary vote and that Rudd is still the preferred PM by a fair margin. I expect to see the polls fluctuate over the next few weeks and if the next one shows 50-50 (or the ALP ahead) I look forward to you giving that one some air time too.

  6. Iain Hall says:

    Ray I am suggesting that almost anyone in the Labor party would do better than Gillard was doing Rudd has peaked and he is like that fabled emperor, naked, and people are starting to notice now that they have got over their gratitude for the removal of the Red Barren

  7. Ray Dixon says:

    I can’t imagine Shorten, Combet or anyone else in Labor dragging the 2-party preferred back to an even contest.

    As for saying Rudd has “peaked”, it’s just one (News Ltd) poll, Iain, and you might be engaging in a bit of barracking or wishful thinking there. The only conclusion you can realistically draw is that we are in for a very close and exciting game and no amount of cheerleading (from either side) is going to change that.

  8. James says:

    Well I look at it this way, ‘One Pole can’t hold up a circus tent’, and the current Labor Circus is on the road again with all the so called lineup of new stars, ministers, front benchers etc. all being kept out in sideshow alley and Rudd the Circus Ringmaster is once again conducting the whole show. Bit like those one night one man comedy shows you see.

    As we all know polls go up polls go down, BUT, all the pundits were saying this was going to be for Labor an up up up series of polls right through to the election, there wasn’t any thought of bumps in the road.

    I tend to agree with Ian and think that Rudds saccharin sweet smile is already starting wear a bit thin on people and they are afraid that the Red Headed Liar bird might have second thoughts and burst back onto the scene also. It’s a proven fact, you just can’t trust Labor.

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    On the contrary, James, Rudd’s Ministers have been out and about in the media quite a bit, especially Albanese, Bowen & (lately) Burke – all selling the new changes. I don’t think the coalition team consisting of such luminaries as Sophie Mirabella, Scott Morrison & Chrissy Pyne is much to boast about either. Face it, the key difference in the personnel stakes here revolves around the two leaders and, on that score, it’s pretty clear who holds the upper hand. The polls have consistently said so too.

    Which pundits were saying Labor’s polls were going to continue to rise without any “bumps”? I don’t recall anyone predicting that, least of all Rudd and the ALP. I think they’re pretty happy just to be back in the game with a reasonable shot at winning – which is what we’ve got. As I said earlier, I think that, from now on, the polls will fluctuate one way or the other but remain very close. Rudd’s still the underdog and it would certainly be a monumental achievement if he won … but it’s possible.

    Btw, your suggestion of a Gillard comeback is laughable. That’s what nerves can do to you, I guess – they make you say silly things.

  10. James says:

    Yes and Julia Gillards, “there will be no carbon tax under a government I lead”, that was laughable too!!! No it’s the politicians that say the silly things haven’t you noticed Ray.

  11. GD says:

    It’s tragically funny to see Labor and the leftist media, ie the ABC, accepting from Rudd what they deplored in the Howard government. All of a sudden it’s ok to turn back the boats, instigate an off-shore ‘solution’ and deny all and sundry immediate citizenship. This was what the Howard government was demonised for by both Labor and the MSM.

    At the same time, it seems it’s now ok to wind back the ‘carbon tax’ that was going to save the planet. Apparently getting re-elected is more important to Rudd than what he once called ‘our greatest moral challenge’.

    Or are Labor admitting that the whole global warming scare was a scam?

    The changes to the FBT have already caused huge job losses to the vehicle leasing industry and the subsequent pain will be felt by GMH even though Labor has vowed to prop up the failing manufacturer. Talk about giving with one hand and taking with the other.

    Does Labor know what it is doing? Not bloody likely…they have back-tracked on every major policy.

    After six years’ of failed policies and rampant debt all Rudd has got is a television ad telling us debt isn’t bad.

    Sounds like Ray Dixon has been advising him.

  12. Iain Hall says:

    Yep GD that Cartoon sums them up beautifully the thing is they may have swayed some of the voters here but for the people smugglers its business as usual and I put that down to them looking at Rudd and not believing that he is serious or they are expecting something to collapse.

  13. Richard Ryan says:

    Why not Van Diemen’s Land as a detention centre, it has a proven record.

  14. James says:

    Love the picture/cartoon, so apt. How do you add these on here, I tried yesterday to put an illustration with a post and all that came up was the link to the picture?

  15. Tony says:

    Seriously guys, everything said here is true, BUT, purely conjecture at this early stage.
    Two things have to happen, before we can have a serious discussion about labor’s future.

    They are ?

    First, the Krudd has to have the guts, to actually declare a date for the election, and the most important bit;

    the RBA has to reveal the TRUE state of our nation’s finances. (that one is going to sink labor quicker than the iceburg did the Titanic ?)

    I am sorry Ray, but I think the premise that labor has peaked is a good and accurate one.
    Now it is up to the liberal machine to remind us all, of just how much a ditch the labor party have collectively driven us into ?
    In very short time of it, that, they will do.

    Another interesting point, that no one has brought up, is that the Australian voter these days, is very impatient with who wins government these days.

    No longer will we have twenty year odd terms of one party holding government. The australian voter wants results, and wants them fast. We are all educated now, (thanks to the massive media machine), in the ways of policitcal “double=speak”, and we catch on to the spin very quickly. That is exactly what we are getting from labor now ? BTW, notice just how quiet Swan is these days about our financial situation ?

    On another issue, notice how labor has clamped down on any comments, re the refugee boat tragedy ?

    Everything labor has hung their hats on, for the last six years, is unravelling before their eyes, and that is why there is a delay on the election date being announced. If I was Rudd, I would have called the poll, ten minutes after Gillard got the flick, and pray like hell, the boost would have been enough to get him over the line. Remember also, that they don’t hold government outright presently. They are in a loose aliance with the dopey Greens, and as such, are a minority government anyway, so the fall from here is not that far. They have nearly hit rock bottom anyway, even with a popular Rudd at the helm.

    Wait until those budget figures are relased guys.
    Watch Rudd and Co squrim then.
    It will be like the six o’clock swill at the nearest pub all those years ago. Everyone trying to grab a golden parachute, and out the door.
    Boy, is that going to fun to watch, can’t wait ?
    😉

  16. James says:

    Tony you fogot the dopey Independents also, they won’t be around to prop up an inept Labor either.

  17. Tony says:

    Oh yeah, good point, forgot about them.
    Same as what their respective electorates will do, come election time.
    The electorate has no time for candidates, (members), that have sold them, and their electorates out, for a chance to sit at the adult’s table ?
    😉

  18. Iain Hall says:

    Rudd is going onto Bolt’s show on Sunday which should be very interesting and it will not be the touchy feelly ride that Rudd has been used to from other journos

  19. Tony says:

    Really ? I think it will be “a puff piece”. Why else would Rudd do it, especially after the boat tragedy this week, as well as the other labor disasters of late ?
    He’s on a hiding to nothing otherwise.

  20. Iain Hall says:

    Rudd promised to go on the show before he knifed Gillard and he has not reneged, I suspect that Rudd is so full of himself that he thinks that he will out do Andrew, however I expect that Bolt will be a model of charm as he asks Rudd the hard questions. Personally I am hoping for a Rudd melt down!

  21. Ray Dixon says:

    Sounds like Ray Dixon has been advising him

    Yes, GD, Aust’s debt certainly isn’t bad and you should thank f*ck we’ve had a govt prepared to go into some debt in order to keep our economy strong these past 5 years. Otherwise you’d be busking for biscuits (or falafels) on the streets of Western Sydney instead of enjoying paid gigs and paying customers wanting your services. That’s what Tony would have given you instead of debt, mate – unemployment.

  22. Iain Hall says:

    Ray there is cause and effect and I am yet to see any proof that Rudd can legitimately claim the credit that you keep giving him, in fact there is ever more people asserting that the way we are traveling financially has very little to do with Rudd and labor.

  23. James says:

    Question for you Ray. Who will pay for and when will Australias over the top National Visa Card debt be paid?

  24. Tony says:

    Golly Ray, that is straight out of the labor propaganda handbook ?
    Some debt ?
    40+ BILLION dollars A YEAR !, for the last five years, plus all the royalties from the mining boom ?

    Really, you can’t be serious, can you ?
    😆

  25. Ray Dixon says:

    Iain, the latest Galaxy poll puts the two party preferred vote back at 50/50 following that misleading News Ltd poll you got so excited about. Do you still think Rudd has peaked? And will you be writing a new post about that poll too? Just wondering, mate.

  26. Tony says:

    YES YES

  27. James says:

    Rudds saccharin sweet smile will wear thin very shortly. He may retain a level of popularity in his home state Queensland, but that’s Queenslanders for you, but I think the rest of Australia will given another few few start to give him the thumbs down.

  28. Ray Dixon says:

    Thanks, Iain. I look forward to your post on the latest polls showing it’s 50/50, indicating that Rudd has not only lifted Labor’s vote, he’s also holding it firm. This could be the best election ever.

  29. GD says:

    Is that all you’ve got Ray? Rudd’s back up in the polls after sliding down last week?

    Apparently all you’re concerned with is the polls, a bit like Collingwood vs St Kilda. Is that how you see this election?

    What happened to your ‘Rudd Labor’ policies?

    Rudd’s PNG solution is already unravelling. This week 1350 asylum seekers arrived by boat. At this point Manus Island can accommodate about 300.

    Other than revoking his previous policies, all Rudd has done is make photo-op appearances surrounded by
    school kids.

    Here’s Kevvie explaining the PNG solution to the next generation..

    And here’s the kids saying, ‘you ain’t fooling us, we’ve got the pics to prove it..

    Perhaps they should be asking, ‘Why does our generation have to pay back the debt that your government inflicted on us when you believed that global warming and the GFC were reasons to squander our future?”

    Or they could ask, ‘Mr Rudd, why are we learning Arabic at school instead of English?’

  30. GD says:

    And now Kevlar Kev has taken Mrs Kev to Afghanistan to meet the troops..

  31. Iain Hall says:

    That is a brilliant picture GD!

  32. […]  2013/07/28 at 6:51 PM | […]

  33. Ray Dixon says:

    You seem to be obsessed with Kevin Rudd, GD. Is that all you’ve got too?

    Well (to answer for you), obviously it is … because we all know that Abbott and his bunch of policy-free men & women are a rabble and not a viable alternative.

  34. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    as it stands it is the ALP that is a policy free zone because the full extent of their platform is “trust me I’m Kevin”

  35. Ray Dixon says:

    Better that than “trust me, I’m not Julia” now changed to “trust me, I’m a stunned mullet”.

  36. Iain Hall says:

    No and No Ray Rudd is just as disingenuous as Gillard, even though he has not been so called it as she was and secondly only Labor diehards refer to Abbott the way you do.

  37. Ray Dixon says:

    Iain, even Liberal diehards refer to Abbott that way. The people have spoken (or, are speaking).

  38. Iain Hall says:

    Well even those who don’t like Abbott that much agree that he is more of a grown up that that egomaniac Rudd

  39. Tony says:

    Gee, you guys are criticising the “no policy”, “no campaign”, campaign already ?
    Man, the fun hasn’t even started yet ? 😉

    There can’t be any policies from either of them guys.
    If you do hear policies come forth, from either of them, don’t believe it.
    There is no money in the bank to pay for them !

    Anyone else wondering what Rudd is waiting for here, before calling the election ? Do the labor stalwarts honestly think, that a further delay in calling the election, will give Rudd and Labor, the unasailable lead to win ? Do they honestly think that the electorate is that bloody gullible ?
    I think not !

  40. Ray Dixon says:

    The Libs must be terribly nervous, Iain. This should have been the unloseable election but, if they somehow manage to lose, they’ll be looking at a total rebuild. Clear out the old dead wood, sort of thing. Goodbye Abbott, Bishop, Pyne, Morrison et al and all the other airheaded retrogrades. Oh .. and a special goodbye to Sophie Mirabella, who might lose her seat to an Independent anyway.

  41. Iain Hall says:

    Utter unadulterated Labor spin is what you are serving us here Ray. Morrison on the Insiders this week was, as usual strong and competent self, Julie Bishop is likewise doing well, Christopher Pyne has been a brilliant manager of opposition in the house and a very good spokesman on education, Abbott has himself outlasted and out played two PMs There is NOTHING “air-headed or retrograde” about the coalition team. On the other hand what has Labor given us? a mob of incompetents who have proved over the last six years that they could not organise a good fuck in a brothel.

  42. Ray Dixon says:

    Careful Iain, you’re sounding worried. It’s okay, I understand why. Look, all I’m saying is that “IF” the coalition loses, then Abbott and his stooges team of wonderpeople will be cleared out. It’s a big “if” but it’s a possibility. I think you’d have to agree that if he loses it’s bye bye to the so-called strong front bench (or the airheads & retrogrades – just my opinion).

  43. James says:

    Craig Thomson tried to “organise a good fuck in a brothel”, but came unstuct, so I guess the rest will follow.

  44. Tony says:

    Big if ? wow Ray, more like wishful thinking
    It is a pity you, and rest of the labor throng, cannot see beyond the spin and rhetoric, when really all that is required is just a little common sense, and a basic ability to be able to add up ?

    BTW guys, seen the picture of what is left of Nauru ? PNG must be salivating at those ?
    🙄

  45. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    The very last thing that I am is worried a bout the result. Remember that I see politics as a spectator sport or a game and as such I don’t get that exited about any of it. The Rudd spectacular is rather like the cheerleaders show before the game , flashy and full of shaking points of interest but of little substance.

  46. James says:

    Hey guys, how do you get those smilies and pictures into your posts, I’ll be dammed if I can find a way?? We might even pay big bucks for the secret!!!!! MIGHT being the operative word.. lol.

  47. Tony says:

    Oh, and you forgot one Iain ?

    and, often has very little to do with the end result of the game ?

  48. Iain Hall says:

    true enough Tony

  49. GD says:

    Yes, Iain, Scott Morrison was excellent on last Sunday’s Insiders. He blocked Labor stooge (tax-payer funded) Cassidy brilliantly, while outlining substantively the Libs’ approach to ‘stopping the boats’.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-07-28/scott-morrison-joins-insiders/4848450

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