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Monday songs for Kevin and Julia
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It doesn’t matter what day it is for Labor, they’re all bad
As for what happens tomorrow…
So I take it you two have no clear thoughts of your own about this? Just like the ‘stunned mullet’, Abbott.
Anyway, looking at the latest Newspoll (just released – Gillard down 6% to a 26% approval rating and Abbott also down), don’t be surprised if there’s a late swing to Rudd.
Ray
I feel that the serious commentary on this stoush has been done to death, even by you and me on this blog, so I put this little post together in the interests of a little humour and levity. That said I think that the Liberal party have very wisely kept a fairly low profile while the Labor party eats its self alive (or semi dead in electoral terms)As for the Polling well for Labor its all a bit of “dead cat bounce” and not unexpected as the Labor cat below demonstrates:
Further teh poll in today’s Courier Mail asks the most pertinent question:
The winner today will be Tony Abbott no matter who wins the Labor ballot.
Iain, the thing that has struck me is how the Liberal Party and their supporters have really had nothing concrete to say about this issue. Apart from the kneejerk reaction of ‘let’s have an election to sort it out’ (Abbott’s line) there has not been a lot of “serious commentary” coming from the opposition and certainly not a lot here either. There’s been a real void in the commentary here since ‘the challenge’ kicked off and what there has been of it has been about as deep as a wading pool (apart from a few of the early exchanges).
In the coming months though the past week may well be seen as a watershed moment in Australia’s political fortunes and future. And in years to come it may well be regarded as a significant event in Australia’s history – regardless of the result of today’s ballot.
The lack of proper analysis of these events astounds me.
I missed that quote of yours, Iain. Not according to the latest Newspoll taken over the weekend showing that both Abbott’s & Gillard’s popularity has fallen quite dramatically (by 5 & 6% respectively), while Labor’s primary vote has risen 3% to its highest level in 12 months. And there can only be one explanation for that, being K Rudd.
And if Gillard wins I would expect to see very little change in both hers and Abbott’s popularity but for the Libs to increase their lead over the ALP. Abbott really needs Gillard to win today but it could be a very hollow ‘win’ (for both of them).
Ray
it would be bad from and counter productive for the Libs to be too vocal about this stoush, they have nothing to gain and lots to lose if they get involved at anything more than a superficial level. A few comemnts to the media and remaining aloof above the nonsense is both good manners and good politics. But just watch question time today and you will see the opposition in full flight savaging the ALP with lots of barbed sarcasm and derision no matter which way the vote goes in the Labor ballot.
And you seem to forget that Tony Abbott has no need to increase his lead over Labor he just has to remain in front to win at the next election and he will do that.
Our learned friend still thinks that its all about the “evil media”:
Its the most stupid line to take so not unexpected from our latte sipping man at the Victorian Bar
No, I haven’t “forgotten” that Abbott doesn’t need to increase the Lib lead in the polls, Iain, I’m just predicting that it will increase if Gillard is returned today. Maybe not in the first few weeks but certainly after a few months (she can only go further downhill from here).
As for not being “vocal”, Tony Abbott certainly has been very vocal. My point is he has been one dimensional and has even looked fearful of a Rudd win.
But yeah, question time will be a riot. Bring it on.
Not at all “fearful” Ray I think that the only thing that the coalition is frightened of is the very real possibility that they would be seen to be far too gloating at Labor disarray.
As for the PJ (Pure Jeremy) take on it all being a media driven conspiracy: Why on earth would the pro-Liberal News Corporation (which is how he sees them) go out of its way to bring about a possible return of the very man that ‘their man’ (Abbott) fears the most – Kevin Rudd? He doesn’t seem to have thought that through. Surely all the character attacks and blood letting (made by Gillard and her cabinet ministers) about Rudd’s so-called chaotic style while PM is proof to anyone that all these feelings were genuinely simmering under the surface for the past 2 years and, in hindsight, the media was merely doing what it is supposed to do – i.e. dig below the surface and report the news. Not so for ‘PJ’ – it’s all been brought on by the media. They wanted a spill. Um, no, I think, if anything, they were saying they wanted an election – you know, so Abbott could have another bite of the cherry without having to wait 3 years. Saying that the media wanted the spill is at odds with the main objective he claims they have. Boy’s confused.
I can’t look at your vid, Iain. The viewing on my TV is just a tad more important.
I’m watching the TV as well Ray
Tony Windsor rambling on at present 🙄
Gillard 73- 29 Rudd
TONY ABBOTT WINS !!!!!!
oh dear, Rudd chucked in the Foreign Minister’s job for this… 😦
Its a hoot to me GD !!!
Official announcement happening now
Gillard 71 Rudd 31
That’s an okay result for Rudd. He will be PM later this year. Abbott’s worst nightmare.
PS: Why the hell were they allowed to have mobile phones in there sending out (misleading) information on the result? What an anti-climax.
Oh dear, Rudd’s wife’s company just reported a $5.6 million profit. They own 97% of it so I don’t think he’s worried about the Foreign Affairs job, GD. He has his sights set (still) on the old job. Meanwhile he’s pretty comfortable, I’d suggest.
Joolia scores highest vote for a prime minister in a leadership ballot. Strange that she is regarded as Australia’s worst prime minister.
disconnect there by caucus?
Spot on, GD. Caucus seem oblivious to the fact she’s headed for disaster. Maybe it was too early for Rudd. And maybe that’s why Gillard brought it on.
Ray
I think that it boils down to a “Hobson’s choice” for Labor do they choose certain death by the Knife (with Gillard) or just as certain death by the Gun with Rudd, its only amusing to those of us like GD and I who want to see Labor out of office. I feel the pain of Labor people everywhere who must be utterly despairing today.
Iain, I think you’re just a bit high on the euphoria of ‘Gillard the hopeless PM’ being returned in the misguided belief that’s who Abbott will be facing in 2013. He won’t be. And as for suggesting Rudd would be an easybeat for Abbott too … well, you are very much in the minority on that one.
No one , including me is going to claim that Abbott will have an easy time winning government when the election is called, but its certain that he will do better against Gillard than any other candidate that Labor might put up so of course I am happy with the result. That said the longer that Gillard governs the worse this government’s fortunes are going to be so any third way candidate is going to have a bigger hill to climb to hold the lodge for Labor. Its a win win situation for conservatives s far as I can see.
Now much has been made of the roll out of the carbon tax compensation as a positive for the government but I think that a couple of things will spoil that narrative for Labor, firstly the heat has gone out of the climate change movement and their propaganda is not travelling so well with the public any more. Secondly those targeted with the so called compensation are about your most rusted on Labor voters who would have voted Labor anyway, finally everyone is well aware that such things are utterly illusory with any compensation soon being overtaken by the knock on costs of the pernicious Carbon tax.
Labor won’t even get a dead cat bounce out of the whole thing.
Yes Iain, a 3rd candidate would have no hope. All the more reason to believe that Rudd is not dead & buried. He has pledged not to challenge but if someone else does there’s then nothing to stop him nominating again. Also, the caucus are simply going to run out of patience with Gillard if later this year the ALP are still only polling around low 30s primary vote. In those circumstances they would simply ‘return the favour’ she did for Rudd – i.e. they’d tap her on the shoulder and say “go, just go – we don’t support you anymore”. Enter Rudd, unopposed.
And from the back bench he will have lots of time to dissemble and lobby for the Job
And the ruthless blade of Julia Gillard strikes again: Senator Mark Arbib has just announced he has ‘resigned’ from the Cabinet AND as a Senator (leaving at the end of next week!). He says it’s due to “family reasons”. Huh? He’s only 40 and has been in Parliament less than 4 years. When pressed he then said he’s leaving as a “gesture of good will” to help the party heal. He also says that Gillard did not ask for his resignation. Pig’s arse she didn’t. This is the factional leader of the NSW right who was instrumental in organising the coup against Rudd in 2010. The one Gillard worked closely with to bring Rudd down. What does she do now that she has been re-endorsed overwhelmingly as leader and no longer needs him? She sacks him so that it is seen as an act of unity. She’s ruthless. This is just the start. The beginning … of the end for Gillard.
Yes Ray
and because he is a senator he can go without putting the government in Jeopardy,
Yep, he’ll just be replaced by the NSW branch of the party. No by-election. She’d sack Shorten too if it weren’t for the fact it’d give the Libs a seat. Plenty of room now for her to reward those backbench lackies who spoke out in her defence with a nice little Cabinet job – Arbib had 3 portfolios!
bugger, now Mark won’t get a free trip to the London Olympics that Joolia promised him…..
Maybe she sacked Arbib so he couldn’t organise a coup down the track to replace her with Shorten.
obviously she can’t sack Shorten…
so yes, you’re right
In summation…
Think about it…
Yeah, yeah, I get it, GD. Whose quote was that in your previous comment?
Can’t find it exactly, but it’s from a newsletter hosted by Paul Barry
http://www.thepowerindex.com.au/
Guys read this piece of spin from the Labor party national secretary hot from my email in box*:
It’s not a bad summary, GD, but the way I see it, the backbenchers were heavily influenced by Gillard’s inner circle to give her more time, but they’ll soon get the shakes if she doesn’t lift the polls within the next few months. The problem then is who would they turn to, a 3rd PM? The reality is that the ALP cannot afford to go to the next election having had 3 PMs in 3 years (Rudd, Gillard & ?????), as the electorate would not accept such a turnover of leaders and they’d be wiped out. Equally, I believe they will be wiped out if Gillard doesn’t get the flick. Ergo, they might have no alternative but to drag Rudd off the back bench. I mean, seriously, who else have they got who could turn public opinion around?
Oh, is this why Arbib ‘resigned’, to make way for Bob Carr to join the Federal Government?
It sounds like Arbib was told to go …… “or else”:
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/political-news/carr-offered-arbibs-senate-spot–but-hed-want-foreign-affairs-source-20120228-1tzvm.html
There is also chatter about Kristina Kenally as well Ray….
The latest is they’ve both declined.
Keneally’s declined…that comes as a surprise. A walk up start into the top echelon of Federal Labor, I would have thought she would relish the opportunity. Maybe it’s too soon for her game plan. Or maybe she doesn’t want to be tainted by this current Labor swill of nincompoops.
More of the latter I think plus I think that if KK were to go into federal politics she would probably want to do so in the lower house so that she could possibly be our first competent female Labor PM