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Home » Australian Politics » The “Labor of our days” mid season cliff hanger as the franchise faces cancellation

The “Labor of our days” mid season cliff hanger as the franchise faces cancellation

Isn’t it proving to be a great freak-show soap opera in the Labor party at present?

While all and sundry are thinking that the result of the spill on Monday will be a Labor government that will last  until 2013 I can’t help but think that what we are really seeing is more like this:

Even Labor supporters must by now concede that a minority government led by either Rudd or Gillard is going to be like something from Alice in Wonderland and that even if Rudd gets back in the big chair he will not be any sort of White Knight for the  ALP.

A "white knight" , but not as we know it

And all the while its the Libs under Tony Abbott who are offering what the people really want:
Isn’t this just the best cliff-hanger ever?

We have the evil queen bee of the franchise in the fight of her life against the resurrected Labor “Saviour” who is trying a loves and fishes trick with caucus votes while in the Garden of Gethsemane various disciples of the party try desperately to find a path to electoral salvation. All the while Mephistopheles (Tony Abbott according to the Latte sippers)  watches on with that evil glint in his eye secure that whoever wins the ballot on Monday that his arch rivals will be brought low …

Only time will tell if they can get another season for the Labor franchise but I’m betting that they won’t get the ratings again for a very long time.

Cheers Comrades

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16 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    All the while (Tony Abbott) watches on with that evil glint in his eye secure that whoever wins the ballot on Monday that his arch rivals will be brought low

    Iain, I think you, as a rusted on Liberal supporter, see what you want to see. What you see as a “glint” in Abbott’s eye, I see as fear. Abbott looks totally non plussed by the current goings on and especially by Rudd’s charisma and attempts to make his challenge all about who is best equipped to defeat Tony Abbott. Make no mistake, Rudd would definitely make the 2013 election a close run thing, whereas, Gillard will lead the ALP into oblivion. No wonder Abbott keeps calling for an election “to sort this all out” – it’s a pretty dumb response and he’d be better off to just STFU lest he remind the ALP caucus just how right Rudd is to focus on that aspect.

    It’s also super dumb of Abbott to say he would not form a minority government if the independent MPs remove their support for the ALP government. To say that if the GG invites him to be PM, he’d call an immediate election just ensures that the independents will NOT withdraw their support for the ALP regardless of who wins Monday’s ballott. Abbott looks rather confused about political reality, Iain.

  2. Iain Hall says:

    Ray even you would have to concede that minority government has been a totally toxic poisoned chalice for Labor, in general, and Labor under Gillard’s regime in particular. Abbott is just too smart to want to drink that Kool-aid under any circumstances.

    It was interesting that yesterday when Ten News did a phone poll during their news they asked who would be the best PM with a choice of Rudd, Gillard and Abbott the result was overwhelmingly in Abbott’s favour. I know that such polls are notoriously unreliable but I do think that there is a big message here for the country that Labor is in the crapper no matter who wins the leadership on Monday.

    As for the independents(except Katter) they know that they are gone at the next election, just as Adam Bandt knows that he won’t get in at the next election either because he won’t get any preferences from the Libs…

    Now consider the idea that Rudd wins the ballot on Monday and the Tony Windsor is true to his “all bets are off” word and Oakshott does likewise in an effort to play hard-ball with Rudd as they did with Gillard on Tuesday the parliament re-convenes and Abbott moves and wins a no confidence motion in the house. In that circumstance the Governor General has no choice but to ask Abbott if he can show the confidence of the house, he says yes, becomes caretaker PM and announces a general election for the earliest possible date (in about six weeks time) a Hopelessly divided Labor puts up the best fight that it can under a rejuvenated Rudd but they are still decisively beaten, Rudd then remains leader on the strength of his less than an absolute wipe-out and sets about modernising and rebuilding the Labor brand from opposition, Gillard does not re-contest Lalor and joins the likes of Joan Kirner, Anna Bligh, in the pantheon of failed female Labor leaders who eternally whine about a misogynistic patriarchal system that holds women back in politics…
    Meanwhile the likes of Bill Shorten and the other knifemen reconsider their future in politics because they are forever stained by the folly of supporting Gillard in the first place. Bob Brown goes into “don’t blame the saintly Greens” mode…

  3. Ray Dixon says:

    Abbott is just too smart to want to drink that Kool-aid under any circumstances

    Of course he wouldn’t want to rely on independents to form government if he could avoid it, Iain. But I think it’s him (and you) who have been drinking ‘Kool-aid’ if you both think that scenario you painted has any chance of becoming reality. To start with, Abbott has already telegraphed the independents that if they withdraw support and vote for his ‘no confidence’ motion, he will immediately call an election bringing an immediate end to their political careers. Um … I don’t think they’re into political suicide, Iain. Abbott has effectively told the independents to stick with the ALP – and that’s the part that makes him really stupid.

  4. Ray Dixon says:

    As for those opinion polls, I saw an online one on the Herald Sun website (with 10,000 votes!) that asked much the same question. It asked “Who do you want to see as PM: Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd or, Neither, I want an election now”. The last option is clearly a vote for Abbott.

    The result was approx this:

    Gillard 10%
    Rudd 45%
    Election now (ie Abbott) 45%

    And don’t forget, HS readers and their polls are predominantly pro Liberal. That result is a stunning one for Rudd.

  5. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    the “political careers” of the independents are absolutely in “dead man walking” territory and you just never know what sort of curve ball could emerge from a no-confidence motion, heck even the Greens might cynically support it on the basis that
    they would benefit from disaffected Labor voters swinging to them which would bolster their finances to the tune of what is it $2.40 per vote? Windsor may well reckon that his place in history as a “man of principle” would be better served by changing his bet Oakshott may try to redeem himself in his seat by doing like wise, Wilkie has already said that he won’t back Gillard and revelations that Rudd won’t back his pokies nonsense means he is free to make himself look important one last time by voting no confidence in Labor.Heck even one of the Labor true believers could cross the floor… maybe even Rudd will go straight to an election… Its All possible because even the most stoned out script writers could not have invented the shit storm we are watching at present and no one knows just how it will play out.

  6. Ray Dixon says:

    Oh Iain, where do I start to respond to your wishful thinking? Okay, as much as I hate long-winded ‘quote & response’ type commenting, I’ll do it this time:

    “the “political careers” of the independents are absolutely in “dead man walking” territory and you just never know what sort of curve ball could emerge from a no-confidence motion”

    I think I do know, Iain. Windsor & Oakeshott still have 18 months to go in their (last) terms and there’s no way they’ll vote for an early execution.

    even the Greens might cynically support it on the basis that they would benefit from disaffected Labor voters swinging to them which would bolster their finances to the tune of what is it $2.40 per vote?

    An early election is likely to polarise voters and see a massive swing to one party only – the Liberals. The Greens would be lucky just to hold ground. The disaffected Labor voters shifted to them in 2010, remember?

    Windsor may well reckon that his place in history as a “man of principle” would be better served by changing his bet

    Windsor doesn’t have tickets on himself and I seriously doubt he cares about how he is noted “in history”. You seem to forget that he doesn’t like or support Abbott’s policies and politics – remember the “I’d sell my arse to be PM” remark that Windsor highlighted?

    Oakshott may try to redeem himself in his seat by doing like wise

    He’d just be seen as a turncoat who can’t be trusted. He’s a goner and he knows it, so he might as well stay for another year or so. Btw, didn’t you hear him throw Turnbull into the mix? Yeah, he actually implied he might support the Libs if Turnbull ousts Abbott. Or, in other words, he’s undermining Abbott and telegraphing his continued support for the ALP. He’s a bloody lightweight, Iain.

    Wilkie has already said that he won’t back Gillard and revelations that Rudd won’t back his pokies nonsense

    That’s just propaganda put out by Gillard. She and her lackies are throwing the kitchen sink at Rudd, as you may have noticed. Funny how Wilkie said he WOULD support Rudd. That suggests (very strongly) that Rudd did not undermine the pokies bill and that he would do more for Wilkie than Gillard did (which was to renege on him!). Wilkie has had it with Gillard and has already made that official, Iain.

    even one of the Labor true believers could cross the floor

    You’re dreaming.

    maybe even Rudd will go straight to an election

    No chance. He will need time to turn the polls around. Of course, there might be an immediate jump in ALP support if he gets the job but he’s astute enough to know that any immediate spike is a euphoric ‘knee jerk’ and a mere spike that would not translate to victory in an early election.

    even the most stoned out script writers could not have invented the shit storm we are watching at present

    Well then, I must be on drugs, Iain, because I’ve been saying for yonks that Rudd would challenge. And, given the history of Rudd’s departure, it was never going to be anything other than a shit storm. We’re not hearing anything unexpected – Rudd is stating the obvious “I can beat Abbott” line, while taking a few swipes at Gillard’s treachery, whereas Gillard is character assassinating and proving she’s not a good politician or leader.

  7. GD says:

    a choice between muppets…
    Photobucket Pictures, Images and Photos

  8. Iain Hall says:

    Ray

    My comment was just a bit of freestyle what if scenario building and not a deeply thought out analysis. That said let me respond to your rebuttal 😉

    I think I do know, Iain. Windsor & Oakeshott still have 18 months to go in their (last) terms and there’s no way they’ll vote for an early execution.

    Hmm I don’t know of it looks untenable they may just jump or even just abstain from the vote you can’t just think taht they will act entirely based upon the prospect of their future unemployment.

    An early election is likely to polarise voters and see a massive swing to one party only – the Liberals. The Greens would be lucky just to hold ground. The disaffected Labor voters shifted to them in 2010, remember?

    Hmm I don’t think so, there are a lot shall we say more latte sodden ALP people who can’t stand the idea of voting for the coalition but who don’t want to vote Labor who may jump the other way.

    Windsor doesn’t have tickets on himself and I seriously doubt he cares about how he is noted “in history”. You seem to forget that he doesn’t like or support Abbott’s policies and politics – remember the “I’d sell my arse to be PM” remark that Windsor highlighted?

    He is a man at the end zone of his political career and if he is saying taht he doesn’t care about his “legacy” then he is not telling the truth.

    He’d just be seen as a turncoat who can’t be trusted. He’s a goner and he knows it, so he might as well stay for another year or so. Btw, didn’t you hear him throw Turnbull into the mix? Yeah, he actually implied he might support the Libs if Turnbull ousts Abbott. Or, in other words, he’s undermining Abbott and telegraphing his continued support for the ALP. He’s a bloody lightweight, Iain.

    Yes I know that he is lightweight but he may still see which way the wind is blowing and try to get some redemption by voting against Labor

    That’s just propaganda put out by Gillard. She and her lackies are throwing the kitchen sink at Rudd, as you may have noticed. Funny how Wilkie said he WOULD support Rudd. That suggests (very strongly) that Rudd did not undermine the pokies bill and that he would do more for Wilkie than Gillard did (which was to renege on him!). Wilkie has had it with Gillard and has already made that official, Iain.

    SO he may well say “a plague on both their Houses” to Labor because he has also said that he could work with Tony Abbott

    You’re dreaming.

    Its the painkillers Ray they make you have strange ideas sometimes

    maybe even Rudd will go straight to an election

    No chance. He will need time to turn the polls around. Of course, there might be an immediate jump in ALP support if he gets the job but he’s astute enough to know that any immediate spike is a euphoric ‘knee jerk’ and a mere spike that would not translate to victory in an early election.

    Well then, I must be on drugs, Iain, because I’ve been saying for yonks that Rudd would challenge. And, given the history of Rudd’s departure, it was never going to be anything other than a shit storm. We’re not hearing anything unexpected – Rudd is stating the obvious “I can beat Abbott” line, while taking a few swipes at Gillard’s treachery, whereas Gillard is character assassinating and proving she’s not a good politician or leader.

    Its not the fact of Rudd’s challenge that I’m talking about here Ray its the way its happening and they way its destroying Labor in the process.

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    I think it’s a long shot (and wishful thinking) that somehow Abbott will end up as PM anytime soon, as a result of this fracas. He may well end up PM in 2013 but not this year. Abbott and his supporters (like you) are just praying for Gillard to hold on to the job. Likewise, I think you’re all a bit uncertain about what happens if Rudd gets it.

  10. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    I think that there is only one certainty from all of the Labor blood letting and that is the ultimate winners will be the coalition. If Gillard wins she will be fatally weakened unless she wins with a near unanimous vote, which is not going to happen, if she wins but only by a small margin, she will likewise be fatally wounded because it will highlight the party’s disunity, If Rudd just scrapes in then it will still be about Party disunity and you may well have the likes of Nicola (I won’t work with Rudd) Roxson deciding to walk, Who ever wins will be working so hard against the enemies within that Tony Abbot and Co will have tons of nails to drive into the reanimated corpse that is the ALP. There is no doubt that Kevin is a smart cookie with lots of political nous and that he has a lot of charm but I don’t think that he can beat Abbott with the political baggage he and Labor are carrying.

    To me the saddest thing to me, as a former ALP voter, is that had Gillard shown some of the candour about the Rudd governemnt that she has expressed in the last two days when she had knifed Kevin in the back during 2010 she would probably been travelling a bit better now but instead she gave the voters a load of manufactured nonsense about “a good governemnt gone astray” that no one believed not even her.

  11. GD says:

    Kim Beazley Sr said back in 1970 at the WA Labor state conference:

    When I joined the Labor Party, it contained the cream of the working class. But as I look about me now all I see are the dregs of the middle class. And what I want to know is when you middle class perverts are going to stop using the Labor Party as a spiritual spitoon.

    How prophetic. Today we have a Labor Party fixated on bogus green schemes, a carbon tax, gay marriage and open door immigration; a Labor Party purposely ignorant of economic issues, while favouring the very socialist options that have reduced Europe to its knees.

    Kim senior’s quote is here
    http://www.menzieshouse.com.au/2012/02/its-alien-vs-predator.html#more

  12. Richard Ryan says:

    Abbott would have been a Catholic Priest, if had been able to keep his pecker in his trousers, I hear he has given up sex with his wife for Lent.

  13. damage says:

    And is having it with yours Richard.

  14. Simon says:

    Any sympathies I had towards dishonorable Kevin-son have gone seeing as it looks like the dramatic overseas resignation had less to do with a lack of confidence in him doing his job from the Prime Minister and more of a well timed “Charge!” battle cry reminiscent of Mel Gibson in Braveheart.

    Why could he not complete his overseas assignment representing Australia, allow a few more kidney punches from Crean et al while stoically putting on a brave face, come home and resign face to face mano-a-mano and call a press conference straight away?

    And despite misgivings about Tony he’s doing a good job of not gloating as our Ouroboros government implodes very publicly. It truly is a funeral procession.

  15. Ray Dixon says:

    If he hadn’t resigned straight away he’d still be completing those duties overseas instead of challenging, Simon. Why not look at it this way – why was it necessary for Crean et al to launch those character attacks on Rudd when he wasn’t here to answer them? That was rather cowardly, wasn’t it?

  16. Simon says:

    I agreed Ray, I initially thought “Oh he’s jumping before being pushed” and he was going to come home and help Anna Bligh’s campaign. But after yesterday morning’s conference (I haven’t seen the afternoon one yet, was there one?) I was left thinking “The Ego has landed”.

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