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Why Rudd will win …. eventually

(Reproduced from my home blog Alpine Opinion)

there is one over-riding question for my caucus colleagues, and that is, who is best placed to defeat Tony Abbott at the next election? Mr Abbott, I believe, does not have the temperament or the experience to ever be elected and hold the office – the high office – of Prime Minister of Australia. But at present, and for a long time now, he’s been on track just to do that.

That’s how Kevin Rudd rounded off his speech explaining why he was resigning as Foreign Minister. It’s a clear message to his ALP colleagues – “I will give Tony Abbott a real run for his money at the next election but, if you stick with Julia Gillard, there is no hope.”

And he’s right. And that’s why he will get the job back from the person that took it from him. Maybe not on Monday. My guess is he’ll be ringing around to gauge his level of support and if he’s got as many as, say, 40 out of 103, then he’ll challenge when Gillard calls the spill – the one she’s now locked into calling. Even if he loses that vote (and he probably will) the damage will be done and it will only take another bad opinion poll, or another stuff up, for the Gillard supporters to give her the marching orders.

Alternatively, Rudd may not contest the leadership on Monday at all and, instead, prefer to wait her out. And why should he put his hand up if he only has 20 or 30 current supporters? Gillard and her key Ministers like Crean & Swan are the ones who have brought this to a head by going very much on the attack this week including (so it seems) releasing that video of Rudd swearing. If Rudd thinks he needs more time he’ll take it. And leave Gillard with egg on her face and a hollow, meaningless victory.

Rudd is certain to be PM sometime this year.

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17 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    And for a different take on this, let’s cross to ‘Pure Jeremy’:

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/purepoison/2012/02/23/ah-i-think-i-understand-how-the-media-convinces-itself-it-wasnt-a-beatup/

    Or not. I’ll just sum it all up for you: Rudd didn’t cause this. Gillard didn’t cause the split either. The media done it. The big bad media made Rudd resign as Foreign Minister. Then they made Gillard and her inner circle go on the public attack against Rudd. Then they made Gillard announce a spill. Next they’ll be making Rudd nominate. And lose. Then they’ll make him challenge again later this year.

    This of course ignores the fact that Gillard knifed Rudd in the first place with not a hint of that move being foreshadowed in the media (think back to 2010 – Gillard’s move was indeed made by stealth and a complete surprise). It also ignores the f*cking obvious: that due to the way Rudd was removed and the subsequent drop off in ALP popularity it was only a matter of time before a challenge or comeback attempt would be made.

    But no, “the media done it”. The big bad media controls everything according to ‘Pure Jeremy’. And if you disagree with him you’re an idiot!

  2. Iain Hall says:

    I saw that Ray and I can’t believe that Jezza is still trying to maintain the “its all a media beat up” line even as the spill has been announced its quite clear to everyone that the media have been right about the tensions and the scheming

  3. Simon says:

    I dunno. I’m still picking Robert McClelland to stand and Kevin to remain quiet. Perhaps this solution appeals to the pragmatist in me? One things for sure, you can’t blame the media for this civic show-down.

  4. Ray Dixon says:

    Chris Bowen is another possibility. He has impressed with his quiet support of Rudd while not running down Gillard. But I reckon that’s plan B for the future, if Rudd fails to get back.

  5. Ray Dixon says:

    WOW.
    RUDD’s SPEECH.

    The most powerful ever.

    “I want to finsh the work that the people elected me to do as Prime Minister”

    He’s also demanded a secret ballot.

    Game almost over for Gillard. She can’t top that. She might hang on, on Monday but, not for long.

  6. Richard Ryan says:

    AS Paul Keating once said—-” A souffle doesn’t rise twice” Gillard has Celtic blood in her veins and history shows the Celts gave the Romans a hard time during the invasion of Wales. Rudd will find this out on Monday. Neither Abbott or Rudd will ever be leader of this continent.

  7. GD says:

    You could be right, RR, on both counts. The Libs will govern, of course, but maybe not with Tony at the helm. If Gillard wins on Monday, and the numbers support that, the nation will dragged further into the mire by this despicable Labor rabble, and it will be 2013 before the people get to have a say. By then Abbott may not a contender. However, long range predictions are prone to error. Just ask Flannery.

  8. Ray Dixon says:

    Huh? GD, if Gillard wins there is no way that Abbott will lose his position. She is ‘easy meat’ and even Alexander Downer would beat her in 2013. No need to change from Abbott unless it’s Rudd he’s facing.

    Richard, Rudd has already been “leader of this continent” so you are wrong from the outset.

    Iain, I’ll respond to you here: Gillard is already “fatally weakened” and cannot win an election. If Rudd wins, even by a narrow margin, that is an enormous victory and it will unite the party behind him. They’ll have no other choice. Sorry, Iain, you are clearly looking at this through the rose coloured glasses of fear in predicting that it adds to Abbott’s chances. I repeat – he already has Gillard beaten, but he doesn’t have Rudd’s measure. Not by a long shot.

  9. GD says:

    pedant, Ray. You know what RR meant. Rudd won’t rise again.

  10. Ray Dixon says:

    Do you agree with my response to you then, GD?

  11. GD says:

    Eighteen months is a long time in politics. Abbott may not stay for the long haul. Unlikely, but it’s pointless to talk about that now.

    Yes, even Alexander Downer in fishnets could beat Joolia tomorrow in an election. Slight exaggeration 🙂

  12. Ray Dixon says:

    it’s pointless to talk about that now

    But you raised it, GD. As for what Kim Beazley (Senior) said way back in 1970 (other thread), well, he was just an old school type out of touch with changing realities. The fact is Labor has demonstrated over & over since then how well they manage the economy. Witness Hawke & Keating. Witness Rudd’s reaction to the GFC #1. Yes, the ALP has become more middle class and less working class – that’s because Australia has gone that way too.

  13. GD says:

    The fact is Labor has demonstrated over & over since then how well they manage the economy

    That is a quote worth bottling. So ‘changing realities’ include ignoring the mainstream workers and pandering to ideological minorities. Ray, is this what you want from your Labor Party? You are the only business man I know who is still on Labor’s side.

  14. Ray Dixon says:

    So ‘changing realities’ include ignoring the mainstream workers and pandering to ideological minorities

    Please don’t put words in my mouth, GD. The mainstream workers ARE middle class.

    You are the only business man I know who is still on Labor’s side

    How many do you know, GD? And of those you know, how many tell you their true personal political views? I don’t take the view that politics is about ‘what’s in it for me’ and I’ve always taken the position that I’ll succeed regardless of who is in government. But I look at politics as what is best for the country overall … and I’m yet to see a Liberal government that delivered on that.

  15. Richard Ryan says:

    Rudd won’t become leader again—–he reminds me of the Rainbow, appears after the storm has blown over. As for Abbott why is everybody “cock sure” he will beat Gillard, he may never get a chance to contest against her——a day is a long time in politics.

  16. Richard Ryan says:

    AS for Gillard she has not played her hand yet, against Mad Monk Abbott. But don’t you love Australian Politics, been glued to the TV for the past three days—-more exciting then that American shit, they call politics.

  17. Ray Dixon says:

    As for Abbott why is everybody “cock sure” he will beat Gillard

    Because for over 12 months the polls show him doing so in a landslide. And they are not likely to change anytime soon, Richard. Nor are the Liberals about to dump Abbott when he’s so far in front. If Gillard has a “hand” to play against Abbott that would see her defeat him, then you’re the only one who knows about it.

    But I agree that this is all a great TV mini series.

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