In the game of political poker Christian Kerr thinks that the Greens are in danger of over playing their hand but I tend to think that they have already done so in the nature of their deal with Gillard:
Now I’m no gambler and the only time that I have played poker in recent times has been within the Game Red Dead Redemption on the PS3, but there is a seductive game of sorts that you have to play if you want to win a decent sized pot. Namely you have to bet incrementally teasing your opponent into making a bigger and bigger commitment until they have no choice but to go all in. Bet too big too early and they will just fold. You may win the hand but your winning will do little to enrich you, which sort of defeats the purpose of playing somewhat.
Had Gillard been a stronger player and Brown had his eye on a longer term vision both would have realised that they were each to desperate to win the pot and neither had thought enough about the implications of winning on the terms that were on the table. Put simply Brown asked too much of Gillard, and Gillard conceded too easily on the Carbon Tax. I think that the likely result will be a disaster for both parties. The Greens have made their all in betting practice entirely obvious and as a result they will find that the majors will be putting them last on how to vote cards at the next poll with obvious results for their ambitions in the lower house, while Labor have squandered all of their chips to win the keys to the lodge when they could have won them for less. Greed and desperation a terrible bedfellows when you are negotiating especially when it is about power rather than money Brown and Gillard are both doing a fine job of busting out from the game. Gillard will go first having bankrupted Labor of its political capital with her ineptitude as a high stakes player, while Brown may stay in the game a bit longer he will find that his dogmatic style will win him no new friends and without finding new friends in the electorate he will never be more than an annoying side bet.
The winner is of course going to be the Coalition who have been just staying at the table making small incremental bets while their opponents have been making the most showy examples of chip mal-dexterity that anyone can imagine. The trouble is that a player needs good opponents in an ongoing game and I worry that with the total demolition of their opponents that the Coalition will suffer in the long term so even I hope that Labor can lift its game enough to be an effective opposition when the inevitable loss happens at the next election.