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Lazarus with half pike and flashy somersault

Who else out there thinks that the introduction of Gillard’s legislative fix for the high court decision on her Malaysian solution was a really bad strategic move? The only reason that she could have been doing so is some sort of empty hope that Abbott would relent when the question was definitively put in the house. Of course as he is a far more astute player than Gillard. Tony Abbott has just been able to watch as yet again Labor  drives a dagger into its own collective chest on this issue. Its just another case of Labor ineptitude and who better to go to but Richo who must thank his lucky stars every morning that he does not have to spin such bad strategy to a public who used to believe that Labor was a realistic option for decent government only to find that they have a very bad comedy act who seem to have forgotten that you don’t save a bad performance with even worse scripts and worse acting.

Leadership speculation is inevitable in this climate of confusion and desperation. Kevin Rudd is the name on every journalist’s lips and the lips of many voters, if the polls are to be believed. The big question is will the caucus be so panicked that it would swallow its pride and bring him back.

Rudd, of course, is doing nothing to dampen down this speculation and no doubt he will be emboldened by that stupid leak to The Daily Telegraph. If the Prime Minister or her office had workshopped for a month to find the most ham-fisted, clumsy way to leak a damaging story on Rudd’s largesse on his overseas trips, they couldn’t have been silly enough to come up with this. This one had the PM’s fingerprints all over it.

While wholesale panic has not yet set in, there is movement at the station on the leadership question. Rudd always had some supporters and the prospect of losing 40 seats has seen that support base grow from about 10 to somewhere in the early 20s. None of the caucus big guns have jumped on board yet and I doubt they will.

The intractable problem of the three independents who keep Labor in power has not diminished. There is no sign yet that they are prepared to countenance a leadership change. The problem is that this latest mega-failure on refugees has extinguished all hope in the caucus that their poll numbers may recover in time for the next election.

This is a dilemma as awful as it is unprecedented. With no logical candidate, no agreement for change with the independents, there is a sense of hopelessness settling over the entire caucus. There is a view that like good little lemmings they have no choice but to follow Gillard over the cliff.

Graham Richardson

I think that its only a matter of time now and even the much mooted return of Brother Number One from his enforced long (on frequent flyer) march can save either the government or the party. The only way that he would stand a chance would require him to drop the Carbon Tax, saying that it needs electoral endorsement before becoming Law and cutting back the NBN while trying to run a very dull “caretaker” government that focuses on sound administration rather than the endless and often questionable “reform”. Some how I don’t think that Brother Number One will be able to do this because his ego is just too uncontrollable and that he will want to invent some new “big vision” concept to redeem himself as the nations visionary saviour…

Cheers Comrades


10 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    I think there’s no doubt that Rudd will return to the top job sometime in the next 12 months, but the problem for the government, as Richo points out, is convincing the 3 independents to support the change of leadership. Windsor & Oakshott are both experienced and pragmatic enough to see that it’s the right move, however, ‘Wonky’ Wilkie is a different matter. He’s the one, remember, who with only 20% of the primary vote in his own electorate, and with no prior parliamentary experience, held a gun to Gillard’s head over national changes to the pokie industry. And I think the only person who can bring about Gillard’s demise as leader is Gillard herself. She needs to fall on her sword and somehow convince the independents (especially Wilkie) to see that it’s not only in the ALP’s interests to bring Rudd back, but also in their interests and, more importantly, in the best interests of the country. Otherwise we are likely to see the next parliament with only a handful of opposition members and that is not a healthy outcome. It’s time to see the writing on the wall, Julia, and step down.

  2. Sax says:

    Unless Ruddy is a total fool Ray, I don’t think he will even contemplate the top job, until after the next election.
    Let’s face it, I don’t think even his return could turn around Labor’s fortunes currently.
    Gillard has made such a complete stuff up of it, that it will take a complete fresh start, and new front bench, after the election, to get even the voter’s attention, let alone their votes ?

  3. Iain Hall says:

    While I agree that a going into opposition before taking the big chair may be an attractive scenario Sax I also think that Rudd may reason it like this: If he takes the big job now and manages to lose the election in less than a total wipe put he will be in a strong position to do a Tony Abbott and remain leader so that he can continue improving Labor’s prospects hoping to sustain the improving trend that the polls suggest is possible. That said I do agree with Ray (see it does happen 😉 ) that it would be far better for the party for Gillard to step down on a “voluntary ” basis rather than going from a party assignation. Although the “live by the knife and die the knife” does seem apt here.

  4. Ray Dixon says:

    Rudd is a big enough egotist to take the job now in the belief that he could turn it all around by 2013. I agree he’d have next to no chance of winning the election but he might make it a more marginal result. He won’t be blamed for that and may then decide to retire gracefully, having ‘made his point’ that he should never have been dumped in the first place.

  5. Ray Dixon says:

    Btw, Iain: No mention of Sophie’s, um, little problem at the moment? You know, like the possibility (alleged, implied, whatever) that she fleeced an old age pensioner and now stands to inherit his estate. Don’t worry, I’ll post it all here later. In the meantime, just read this (it’s mind blowing):

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/power-love-and-money-20110922-1knb7.html

  6. Iain Hall says:

    Ray as one of her constituents I would have thought that the story is right up your alley rather than mine, but then again you might do serious damage to your key board if you wrote about it…

  7. Sax says:

    Honestly guys, I really don’t think Ruddy is even interested in the big job.
    I think he is hanging out for that cushy diplo post to Shanghai ?

    For that, we ALL know he would be perfect.
    I think even his enemies would accept that fact ?

    Let’s face it, that has been his career path hasn’t it ? Only logical in the long run. He is still young enough to make a name for himself, (not that he needs to), and as so far as the PM job, he can always say “been there done that, no thanks”, and still looks good on the old resume ?

    Also, another “let’s face it moment”, Dullard and her gang have made the top job pretty toxic over the last year, no matter what (or who) she will attempt to blame it on.

    But, if he does come back to the top job, I would vote for him over Abbott, or Dullard for that matter anytime. That is the point the labor back room beancounters have forgotten and have to reconsider ? Even after all that labor have done, the electorate like Ruddy, a big plus. They can’t stand Gillard, or her mates, nor Abbott for that matter.
    Basic politics 101 I would think ?

  8. Sax says:

    read your post, and again, under parliament’s morality legal jargon, doesn’t she have to stand down through the investigation process ?

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    Are you on the right thread, Sax?

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