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The Great ‘Green Dream’ and how voting for the ALP will put Abbott in (by … you guessed it)

It does not get any clearer below

Some times you just need to let something speak for itself.

As they say “stupidity is its own parody”.

I bring you Jeremys take on “how to vote” :

How voting ALP could help Abbott

You may have heard me say that it’s impossible for your progressive vote to end up helping the conservatives. Turns out I was wrong. There is a scenario in which your voting ALP or Green could inadvertently end up helping the Liberals.

I know you’ll be expecting this to be long and complicated, but it’s actually quite easy to explain.

How it “could” happen

In amongst both the Green and ALP first preference votes, are some people who preference the Liberals ahead of the alternative progressive party. ALP voters who put the Liberals above the Greens; Greens voters who put the Liberals above the ALP.

As long as that party is not eliminated, those Coalition votes stay locked in for the “left” side of politics (for the sake of this discussion, I’m going to pretend that the ALP counts as “left”).

But, when that party is eliminated, that subset of their votes would flow straight back to the Coalition and, in a very unlikely set of circumstances, could conceivably see the conservative candidate elected over the remaining “left” one.

How to avoid it happening

So – if you want to keep the Coalition out, and are worried about this tiny possibility of inadvertently helping them, then how should you vote? Well, you should vote to keep in for as long as possible the “left” party with the higher proportion of conservative votes hidden within it.

As it happens, the vast majority of ALP voters simply follow the ALP ticket, which – like the Greens one – usually puts the Coalition down the bottom. In contrast, Greens voters are much more independent-minded and less likely to follow such cards or tickets and – even according to the recent ALP campaign against them – that includes some 20% of so who have come from the Coalition wanting change. I’m not sure what those probably small l liberal Coalition voters expect from the Greens – other than opposition to the unworkable internet filter, government out of people’s bedrooms and a realistic approach to climate change – but the fact is, there are probably more, in proportion, Coalition votes locked up in the Greens’ vote than the ALP’s.

Which means that if you vote ALP instead of Greens, and the Greens are eliminated, and some of those votes flow back to the Coalition, you could find that your ALP vote in fact inadvertently helps elect a Liberal. That’s more likely than the “a vote for the Greens helps the Liberals scenario”, in which your Green vote gets the ALP eliminated first and frees the proportionally fewer* ALP/Coalition votes to go to the Liberals.

A silly thing to worry about

Of course, in reality the likelihood of the small number of Coalition preferences hidden in Greens and ALP votes actually electing a Liberal is tiny – particularly given that far more of those votes will flow straight to the other “left” party. To allow it to influence your vote is taking tactical voting to a ludicrous and unnecessary extreme, particularly when your first preference has a much, much bigger influence on what happens than where its preferences go. (If you vote ALP, you vote for nothing to change; if you vote Green, you pull the ALP and the parliament back to the left. Also, voting Green gives them the funding for your vote instead of the thoroughly undeserving ALP, helping them grow and become an even better alternative.)

*You might say aha, but the ALP votes are more than the Greens, so the raw number of Coalition preferences is higher. But the only scenario in which this matters is where the number of ALP and Greens votes are similar, so the proportion equates to more of those locked-away votes.

But if this issue bothers you – the answer is clear anyway. The best way of defeating the Liberals is, again, to vote Green and preference the ALP.

Review: Thanks for clearing that up Jeremy. I like a drink too (and so does Laura) and I reckon there’s nothing wrong with a night on the tiles. But one thing I have learnt from my time on the blog is NOT to write a post when I am still pissed or hung over. At least wait until the Nurofen kicks in. And the same goes for commenters whose comment consists of nothing more than thisTl:dr

Go figure!

(PS for Craygees benefit: this is what is called ‘fair review & criticism’)


15 Comments

  1. Craigy says:

    I still wonder if it is better that we have a system where you can choose to preference or just mark a one box with one and all the others leave blank if you don’t want your vote to go to anyone but your party. Was it Langer who went to jail for this idea?

    ”PS for Craygees benefit: this is what is called ‘fair review & criticism”

    Yes but you are obsessing about someone with a very small profile. Don’t you think there are better much more visible players in the media than Jeremy? The amount of ‘review and criticism’ of his work is way over the top. As I said, he must have done something to you to attract so much love so often from the sockpuppet. Or perhaps he just upset the hand in the sock, I don’t know?

    You can keep calling him names but he must write well on topics that interest you to attract your reviews. So your posts are actually bringing more attention to what he writes.

    Perhaps it’s a secret crush…..that’s it!…. Socky must be Gay and all Jeremy’s writing about ‘Gay Marriage’ gets you all hot and bothered…..that MUST be it!

    Are you an ‘Explorer’ sock Socky……nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

  2. SockPuppet says:

    You are right Craygee – hes a nobody.

  3. Iain Hall says:

    The phrase “a legend in his own lunch time” comes to mind Socky 😉

  4. Craigy says:

    Hmmmm…..no comeback to my assumptions Socky, do I take that as an admission of your secret crush on Jeremy……don’t answer if you don’t want to, what you do in your own caravan is your own business.

    Just wondering though, do you have a poster of Jeremy on your bedroom wall?

    Is it next to the poster of Nick Riewoldt?

  5. SockPuppet says:

    Craygee I did not mention it out of respect to you because it is pretty obvious you are in love with him and that is why you go around speaking on his behalf. Do you have a poster of him next to the James Hird one (seeing that Essendon has no current super stars)?

    Come on Craygee admit your in love. You did not go around saying people should not criticise Iain and others did you? You only speak up for your boy.

    Cheers.

  6. SockPuppet says:

    BTW I am a Greater Western Sydney supporter and I think we will win the flag in our first year when the AFL finally lets us in in 2012. Karmichael Khunt is a real gun.

    Edit: Sorry I meant Israel Fevola not Karmichael Khunt who is a Gold Coast Sunny Boy (and a girl).

  7. Craigy says:

    I’m only a commenter at Iain’s blog socky, you and Iain write the posts and encourage comments, I just respond to your posts as you want me to. No one asks you to write all the time about Jeremy.

    And I do think that people who obsessively attack Iain have a problem. It’s just that I don’t see anyone doing that now and I know how Iain does hate it when people have attacked him in posts at unrelated blogs. Still your obsession is justified is it not?

    What about writing a post about Jill Singer or Red Kerry or someone of some note? I don’t give a shit what you think about Jeremy or any of your personal attacks on the Pure Poison mob, and neither do they I imagine. It’s only of interest to you.

    I’ll leave this thread alone, but if you bring it up again and want your readers to comment, I’ll do so if you like. I’m into feeding peoples obsessions and I’m sure you have one.

    BTW your sense of humour doesn’t go very deep does it?….. :0)

  8. Craigy says:

    ……Well with your master coach Sheedy (oh why did we let him go??) you have a very good shot Socky….!!

  9. Craigy says:

    Sorry, I’m leaving…..by for now.

  10. SockPuppet says:

    Craygee: “Personal attacks” = what other people do. “Taking the piss” = what I do. “Cracking the shits” = what you do.

  11. Craigy says:

    Taking the piss is done with humour, I don’t see any in your obsessive posts Socky.

    I am not “cracking the shits” here my friend, just pointing out your obsession, as I said I like to feed them….. Going away soon….I’m not obsessing…..I say that again….I’m not obsessing……try it!

  12. SockPuppet says:

    Craygee you must have missed the opening lines: Some times you just need to let something speak for itself. As they say “stupidity is its own parody”.

    I cannot help it if you do not find Jeremy’s “how to vote” guide funny. That is all this post is about mate.

  13. Craigy says:

    So obsessing about Jeremy is stupidity and that’s parody which is humour to you……okay Socky whatever you say…. I’m laughing but at what I’m not sure…..

  14. Husky Jim says:

    Don’t consern yourself Craig. No matter how anyone obsesses here about JS, it won’t be as much as he obseses on himself or on Bolta and Blair.

  15. SockPuppet says:

    Craygee, all I done was held up his post for scrutiny, without any real comment. Stop obsessing about it mate. What do you think of the ‘Green Dream’?

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