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Home » Australian Politics » Election 2010 the first ads… you be the judge

Election 2010 the first ads… you be the judge

Today I offer to my dear readers the opening advertising gambits from both sides of the political street so that we can discuss just what sort of message is in the pitches being presented by Both Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard. I am genuinely interested to hear just what you all think of the both the style and the substance  here.

Personally I think that Abbott looks stronger and more genuine and that the ad from the Libs has more substance and is more positive. On the other hand Gillard looks just a little too contrived, the string of pearls strikes me as an allusion to the prototype female Prime Minister Margret Thatcher. Abbots delivery of his lines is well modulated and convincing where as Gillard gives us a dreary monotone in an effort to appear more substantial and serious.

It won’t surprise anyone that I rate Tony’s And as being better. Gillard is to some extent hamstrung by being unable to cite the record of the Labor government she has been part of so all she has to go on is the rather twee reiteration of Labor’s 2007 pitch.

Anyway you judge and give us your verdict in the comemnts

Cheers Comrades


83 Comments

  1. Ray Dixon says:

    Well Iain, you have shown the 30 second ad for Gillard and the long version (1 min 24 secs) for Abbott.

    Anyway, even though Abbott had triple the time to deliver his message he actually said less and spent most of it trying to convince us that was Labor were a big spending Government and going into debt @ $100 million per day”. No hint of what the Libs would do until the end when he says “we’ll stop the spending, reduce the debt and we won’t increase taxes”. Wow, what an action plan! Oh, and “we’ll stop the boats” thrown in as the only thing they’d actually do. No vision whatsoever, nothing about schools, health, the future. And not even an image of a boat person. No footage except of Tony.

    Gillard’s ad, on the other hand, covered a broader range of topics and highlighted positive things compared to Abbott’s negative approach. She did not sound “contrived”, she sounded warm & natural. Oh, and she mentioned restraining population & asylum seekers.

    Game over, I’d say.

  2. Husky Jim says:

    I was interested by an interview Lindsay Tanner had with John Faine this morning. He seemed intent on talking about John Howard.

    Moving Forward?

  3. Pam says:

    I think the Labour advert is better because they include the technique of show don’t just tell – there is a visual reminder of what Gillard is “committed to”. Afterwards I can remember the boats on the sea, the contrasting images of less people playing together and so on. I do hate her fake smile and patronising tone. She seems to think the electorate are idiots, and frankly, with the 3 week scrambling shambles in the name of “fixing” things, if we vote her in, we clearly are. But her monotone and patronising attitude is not that distracting because we see other images. The ad seems more professional.
    Abbott just talks so I can’t remember what his real action plan is. And I wish he wouldn’t move his hands so much, they’re distracting.

  4. Ray Dixon says:

    Tanner is quitting and is not part of the forward plan. That’s probably why he’s “looking backwards”.

  5. Husky Jim says:

    The whole moving forward theme is like a bloke who’s been caught cheating on his wife and only wants to concentrate on the future. Because the past is so absolutely shameful.

    If there is to be any focus on the performance of the government at all, it simply gives the ALP the out of saying “But we’re moving forward…..”
    HOWEVER, one of the tennants of the ALP’s message is “Work Choices” and another is that Abbott “ripped a billion out of health…”.

    It seems that they admit that 2007 till now is completely forgetable and that truely memorable governing only happened before that.

    I rest my case.

  6. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    I had not even compared the time difference between them they were in fact chosen for comparison by the Fairfax press

    I would actually argue that Abbott’s ad was better because he seems far more sincere than Gillard who gives a very stilted presentation, which is why she goes for the use of “stock” footage. In fact I would say that the brevity of the actual Gillard content is her attempt to make a virtue of the necessity that she “not mention the war Rudd” and her part of his disastrous administration.
    Pam
    Welcome to the Sandpit!
    I appreciate what you are saying about moving hands but I think that for some people it just ads emphasis and improves perceptions of sincerity. I suspect that hand gestures are perceived quite differently by various cultural traditions.

  7. Iain Hall says:

    Jim

    The whole moving forward theme is like a bloke who’s been caught cheating on his wife and only wants to concentrate on the future. Because the past is so absolutely shameful.

    Precisely right Jim !!!

  8. Ray Dixon says:

    Abbott’s ad doesn’t give the voters any real clue as to how they will benefit by throwing out Gillard and installing him instead. He only talks about things he will “stop”, like the “debt” and the “boats”. Gillard’s ad at least suggests they will do things from which voters will benefit.

  9. Ray Dixon says:

    One “L” in “election”, Iain. Sorry but, errr ….. dog’s balls?

  10. Ray Dixon says:

    There’s only one “L” in “Phil” too. Where’s ‘Two Ls’ gone, btw? Oh that’s right, he’s socking at you-know-where (occasionally).

  11. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    I think that you are in denial here.
    Tony’s ad points out that the Rudd government and its derivative the Gillard government have been very poor designers of the programs to put into practice what even I can admit were some quite good ideas and they were terrible administrators. This is a quite appropriate message to sell in an election campaign.
    Saying that an Abbott government would really fix these problems is a positive message.
    Gillard’s ads are very aspirational and I even agree that making our population sustainable is a good idea but they don’t give anyone who is worried about Rudd’s stuiff ups any reason to believe that Gillard is not going to be just as bad.

  12. Ray Dixon says:

    Okay, Iain, I just had another look at Abbott’s ad and I’m sorry to inform you that he does not once specify which “stuff ups” you or he refer to (and he only mentions “stuff ups” once). The ad is all about this so-called $100 million per day debt and the “action contract” consists of nothing more than saying they will stop spending and stop the boats. Period.

    It’s like Abbott thinks he’s running against Whitlam when inflation and unemployment was spiralling out of control and people were really struggling. He actually says people are worse off as a result of Labor’s economic mamagement but that is the one area where Labor can stand on its record – the strength of our economy and the fact we avoided recession.

    If Abbott wants to fight the election on economic grounds (and that’s what he seems to be doing) he’s playing into Labor’s hands.

  13. MK says:

    It doesn’t matter how much substance is offered, electorates the world over have shown style counts far more. Only when the stench is simply unbearable will we wake up and look for a way out, by then it’ll be far to late.

  14. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    I don’t think that you quite appreciate just how political advertising works

    Okay, Iain, I just had another look at Abbott’s ad and I’m sorry to inform you that he does not once specify which “stuff ups” you or he refer to (and he only mentions “stuff ups” once). The ad is all about this so-called $100 million per day debt and the “action contract” consists of nothing more than saying they will stop spending and stop the boats. Period.

    No 90 second ad expects to make a convincing argument on its own in some sort of splendid isolation. The ad seeks to emphasise the failures of the Rudd administration. How it has thrown money at problems rather than making hard decisions. It builds upon feelings that already exist in the electorate. While many believe as you do that some stimulus was appropriate as a response to the GFC there are just as many (if not more ) who think that Rudd panicked and went to far with the spending. And there is just no need to list them the people know what Labor’s stuff ups are; just about every program invented or run by the ALP in the last term has had big problems

    It’s like Abbott thinks he’s running against Whitlam when inflation and unemployment was spiralling out of control and people were really struggling. He actually says people are worse off as a result of Labor’s economic management but that is the one area where Labor can stand on its record – the strength of our economy and the fact we avoided recession.

    I think that Abbott will argue that our good position now id because the coalition had put us in such a good position to start with and that the profligate spending has not given the Australian people a very good bang for the mega bucks spent. Having a good economy is not something that Gillard can claim credit for so I don’t think that she will get any benefit from that on this occasion.

    If Abbott wants to fight the election on economic grounds (and that’s what he seems to be doing) he’s playing into Labor’s hands.

    No not really because all he has to do is cite teh very poor “value for money ” in the BER program, which was Gillard baby and he will have the ALP in Vicky Pollard mode : “yes but, No but err yes”

    You see Gillard is trying to sell herself on the promises of the next term where as she has been a big part of the team that promised so much back in 07 and sadly delivered so little up until now

  15. Ray Dixon says:

    Iain, you can’t argue on the one hand that Labor only got us through the GFC in such good shape because Howard left him such a big surplus, but then on the other hand say that Rudd splashed too much money around.

    It is quite obvious that regardless of whether he went “too far” or not with the stimulus, it worked.

    And the Liberals cannot claim any credit for our current good economic position because (as you conveniently forget) they opposed the stimulus!

    Sorry, the state of the economy, good or bad, always goes to the credit (or detriment) of the government of the day. That’s how it is.

  16. Husky Jim says:

    I don’ think that the issue of how much was spent or how well it worked is relevent at all. I’d be quite willing to bet that the Libs thought some of the ideas put into action were good ones, but only the rusted on supporters would ever defend the administrative cred of this Government. Considering the massive waste that’s been evident in these schemes, one can only imagine how far the stumulus would have gotten us had the money actually gone where it was targeted.
    I’m quite sure that in the hands of Howard and Costello that the stimulus would have had hundred year projects, properly managed and administered, which the nation would have had the benefit of for generations and for which we would have been rightfully and properly proud. On the oter hand we now have burned down homes, dead workers, $600,000 BBQ shelters and school halls in schools with not enough class space for their students. If you want to express your pride in this then be my guest, but I think it is an indication of the government’s assesment of its own performance that they have a) removed the PM who oversaw the whole deal, and b) moved to distance themselves from it in an election.

    Looking forward to the future and forgetting the sins of the past?
    Isn’t that why the Catholic church is in so much trouble?

  17. Craigy says:

    “Only when the stench is simply unbearable will we wake up and look for a way out, by then it’ll be far to late.”

    Good point MK. This is exactly what happened with the Howard government.

    Talk about stuff ups and wasting money. Going to war on a lie told by our ‘allies’ and the money we have wasted on the failed Iraq and now Afghan adventures……Can’t wait for JGIL to bring that up, guess she is just keeping the powder dry for the debate.

    One stuff it up party going at the other stuff it up party….should be fun to watch.

  18. Iain Hall says:

    When it comes to modern medicine if you speak to any Doctor worth his salt and he will tell you that in many cases of disease the patient will recover no matter what is prescribed as a cure. I think that at this point in time it is very hard to declare that Rudd’s stimulus “worked” just because the economy failed to tank. It may have remained strong even without the efforts of Rudd. and another thing to keep in mind that when treating any disease the trick is to adjust the dose of your prescription so that it will be efficacious without giving your patient a toxic overdose so even if a stimulus was worthwhile there still remains the question of “how much was actually enough?”.
    The problem with Rudd’s stimulus is that it was bigger than it needed to be, poorly focused,poorly administered and kept going longer than was necessary.

  19. lynot says:

    “Personally I think that Abbott looks stronger and more genuine and that the ad from the Libs has more substance and is more positive. On the other hand Gillard looks just a little too contrived, the string of pearls strikes me as an allusion to the prototype female Prime Minister Margret Thatcher. Abbots delivery of his lines is well modulated and convincing where as Gillard gives us a dreary monotone in an effort to appear more substantial and serious.”

    Bwaaaaaa! That’s funny he he tee he he.Jesus Iain I’m glad you were never a policeman, your perception process is like paper, terrible tee he.

    Comparing Abbott to Gillard is like comparing a nice ‘Filet Mignon’ to a ‘Meat Pie’ they sell at the footy, 90% fat, and 10% shite.Abbott of course being the pie.Iain with out repeating what Ray Dixon has said, which of course is correct, get with the program, Abbott is not going to be P.M…You can dissect the daily diatribe coming from both party’s as much as you like, the fact is, Gillard is going to be the next P.M.

    What’s more, I will go out on a limb here and predict once more, Labor is going to increase it’s majority in the Reps, and the Greens are going to control the Senate.The E.T.S. that you so scornfully reject will be law in what ever form and no matter what cosmetic changes are made in the next term of Labor government.Abbott has already by his own mouth this very morning, put his foot in it with work choices, he doesn’t know what day it is.

    Gillard will crush this man, the Australian people are not going to see their country taken back to circa 1970 by this buffoon and that for me, is money in the bank…

  20. Husky Jim says:

    Craigy I doubt that JGIL will bring it up. It’s about moving FORWARD remember?
    And since the ALP have comitted MORE troops to Afghanistan than Howard did, they don’t want to start lecturing on this issue.

  21. Iain Hall says:

    Lynot
    there is a good reason that I respect Ray’s opinion more than I do yours is that even though he is a dyed in the wool supporter of the ALP he would not be calling it a “done deal” on day three of the campaign.
    If there is one thing that the polls are showing is that either side can win from here. To claim other wise is to play the fool.

  22. Craigy says:

    Good point HJ, as I said both parties have stuffed it up.

    It was Bob Brown, if you remember, who was the only one standing up to Howard and Bush…….Not saying he won’t stuff up, but if he does it will more than likely be an honest mistake not an avoidable stuff up like Howard, Rudd and now JGil.

  23. lynot says:

    “To claim other wise is to play the fool.”

    Iain give me a break, you apart from the odd snippet of having it both ways and an out, had your man in the lodge weeks ago.It’s a done deal alright! I will take my own opinion over yours, thanking you very muchly.

    As for the three day campaign, it is most fortunate for the Liberal party, Gillard only gave them just better than a month to bury themselves.They have already shot themselves in the foot with Abetz on the third day.It’s over!

  24. Husky Jim says:

    Yeah, but Brown’s in a win win position.

    He’s a 115 kg racing expert. He’s never going to have to ride the horse so he can dispense his wisdoms at will and attract the attention of the ill at ease who will think him wonderful, not because he’s right or even because they think he’s right, but because he’s not one of them. Problem is old Bob would have solved the Al Quieda issue by handing over Israel.

  25. Husky Jim says:

    Case in point Craig.
    The Greens have a preference deal with the ALP now.
    Bob Brown said:

    I understand in the majority of the contentious seats, there will be a preference arrangement to the Labor party. Labor is giving their preferences to the Greens, but let me finish that sentence by saying voters should make up their own minds.

    He then added:
    I don’t like backroom preference negotiations with other parties. In fact I’m sick of it.

  26. Ray Dixon says:

    “there is a good reason that I respect Ray’s opinion more than I do yours is that even though he is a dyed in the wool supporter of the ALP he would not be calling it a “done deal” on day three of the campaign.”

    Well I would call it, Iain, but I looked at the ‘swingorometer’ in the HS yesterday and the ALP has a lot of very marginal seats whereas the Coaltion has a very few under say 2% swing required.

    On a two party-preferred across the board I say Gillard will easily have over 50%. But she could get 51 – 52% and still lose. Yes, it will be close but I still favour a win to the ALP by a slightly reduced margin.

  27. Iain Hall says:

    Lynot
    I make no secret of the fact I personally think that the coalition is a better choice for the country but that does not prevent me seeing this campaign as a process that can be viewed fairly even by partisan players such as myself.

  28. Iain Hall says:

    Precisely Ray which is why I think that you are being more realistic than Lynot who is as they say “over egging the pudding” Sadly I think that he can’t appreciate that I can spend three year’s taking the piss out of “Brother Number One” here at this blog and still have a realistic view of the politics involved.

  29. Ray Dixon says:

    Also, Iain, you’ve got ‘form’ for calling the ALP as “gone” as you did in the Queensland, Sth Australian & Tasmanian campaigns. Once bitten …. eh?

  30. Ray Dixon says:

    Sorry, three times bitten …..

  31. Husky Jim says:

    You said KRudd would win the next election Ray.

    We all have our bad years.

  32. Iain Hall says:

    Actually Ray I think that you will find that although I was hopeful on for all of those elections I always expressed some doubt, on the other hand Lynot is just running on pure and unadulterated socialist faith that won’t even consider the possibility that he is just seeing what he wants to see.
    Oh and don’t forget that I did make a call on WA that was right on the money…

  33. Ray Dixon says:

    Yes, HJ, I think Rudd would have won. And, as I just said, I think Gillard will win.

  34. Iain Hall says:

    Well you obviously have more faith in Rudd than just about ALL of the parliamentary party had in the man ….

  35. Ray Dixon says:

    I “had” (not “have”) faith that the Rudd Government would be returned, Iain, regardless of what any self-serving party hacks may have thought. And now I have faith that the Gillard one will. I dunno why that is so hard to comprehend or even a talking point.

  36. lynot says:

    Sadly I think that he can’t appreciate that I can spend three year’s taking the piss out of “Brother Number One” here at this blog and still have a realistic view of the politics involved.”

    Iain you truly are a legend in your own mind.You have as you say taken the piss out of No 1 for three years, accused the government of not being able to run a root in a knocking shop (slightly changed my emphasis)have made the world of Latte your own little play on words and think its cute, etc, etc, to another magnitude etc, and then! have the unmitigated gall to accuse me of having nothing but socialist blind faith.

    Do actually read your stuff before you post it?

    Yes Iain after being on the planet for nearly sixty years my own polemic is worked out by throwing a penny in the air, heads it’s Labor, tails it’s Liberal.

    I have not as yet called an election and been wrong.I can read the tea leaves as well as anyone.

    You do not need a PhD in political science, be paid mega bucks to pontificate on certain blogs al a Bolt, or be a Laurie Oaks to see which way the wind is blowing.

    I have told you ad nauseam, I believe the dark side would have won with Turnbull.You are the only blogger thus far who has said anything to the contrary about that outcome.You also do not need a PhD in psychology to work out your disdain for Turnbull is based on the fact, you cannot come to terms with the fact that an intellectual of Turnbulls caliber, does not see the world as far as G.W. is concerned as you do, or the other righteous wing nuts in your party, that will cause its implosion.

    I must confess, I thought the new mining tax was going to sink Rudd/Gillard. But unlike you, who reads rumors and innuendo from Sky, the Australian, and other right wing outlets, mostly about my home state in the N.W. my son works there.Not that high up in the executive pecking order to be sure, however high enough to tell me it has/had/will/ have the backing of the rank and file when it is reintroduced, to all the other company’s thus far getting away with not paying a fair share of tax for what belongs to all of us.

    Once more for no more GILLARD WILL BE P.M. END OF.

  37. Ray Dixon says:

    Btw Iain, if workchoices is “dead, buried, cremated”, why did Abbott bring it up and make it an issue?

    And did he cremate it before he buried it or after? (It wouldn’t burn underground).

    Oh, and as Abbott has said that not everything he says can believed if it’s not a pre-written policy, how can we believe he wouldn’t re-introduce at least some part of it?

    Abbott has handed Gillard an absolute campaign gift by bringing this matter up instead of letting Gillard do it. He’s just too dumb to run the country.

  38. Iain Hall says:

    Lynot
    You clearly seem to need to convince yourself that your faith is well placed but I think that no one else with any interest in this race is as certain as you, now either you have the powers of a soothsayer or you are hoping that by saying “Gillard has won already” often enough that you will by some miracle make it so.
    Now I’m off to watch a DVD with my wife so I’ll respond in more detail in the morning 😉

  39. Gillard is appealing to the heart. Abbott to the head. The first approach appeals to the mushy types – the second appeals to the harder headed ones. The ad you like depends entirely on whether you are a mushball or a harder type.

  40. gigdiary says:

    BOAB, true! Although I’d prefer to call them ‘mushballs’ and ‘realists’

  41. Ray Dixon says:

    Well seeing as though more than 50% of voters are females, and that of the males there are quite a few “mushies”, it looks like Abbott’s goose is cooked.

  42. gigdiary says:

    Ray, I agree Abbott’s goose is cooked. I’ve already said the Libs made a big mistake ditching Turnbull. And while Turnbull wasn’t ready for a shot at the top, neither are the Libs ready to regain power. They’ll need another term in opposition to regenerate and generally find their place in 21st Century politics.

    I’m not sure we can afford another three years of Labor mismanagement but there isn’t an alternative, given the Gillard factor and Abbott’s unlikeability.

    Another term of Labor will see them dig themselves deeper in a hole, while allowing Turnbull or a new Lib leader a chance to reinvigorate the party. By then Australia will be over its honeymoon with the bright, shiny and mushy and realise that good governance is more than sloganeering, and warm and fuzzy solutions.

  43. Iain Hall says:

    GD
    I just don’t buy the notion that any party has to have more than one term in opposition to prepare them to sit back on the treasury benches.
    The question that swinging voters will ask themselves is can the country afford another term with Labor in control? And can they afford another three years of hasty decisions and really bad administration like those that we have had from Rudd?
    Frankly Tony is not perfect but he is not the sort of ideologue that the left paint him as and in the marginals seats of Queensland and NSW where the pundits tell us this election will be won or lost I think that his down to earth “everyman/ regular bloke” quality will play better than many of the inner city types think it will.

  44. Pam says:

    The journos suggest the election is a done deal for ALP (as they did with Mark Latham – remember him?). But I wonder if it’s as closed as they say…
    * KRudd was a Queenslander; Queensland swung to ALP because they wanted a PM from their state
    * Queensland is upset at the way “their” PM was knifed
    * the Greens want control of the Senate and say they have a deal with the ALP (according to Gillard they haven’t… shades of her non-deal with K Rudd?)
    * the Greens want the old/higher mining tax invoked and to bring in a carbon tax and CETS
    * Some of the marginal seats in Queensland are in coal mining towns, so the mining tax will be an issue to them
    * the loggers in Tasmania cost Mark Latham 3 seats. They may well feel nervous of the Greens /ALP union.
    * people are upset at the price hikes in their utilities. Knowing there is a done deal on a CETS will frighten them.

  45. Husky Jim says:

    My point Ray is that you said Rudd would win. Not “would have” won.
    You were being critical of Iain for getting his predictions wrong and I’m simply pointing out that predictions can go wrong and if we’re going to nail one another to our past predictions then you’ll need to be nailed to that one.

    Gillard is running around giving commitments to the country, making deals with the Greens and promising ME (whom she’s never met and does not know or have any reason to care about) that my future is safe in her hands.
    4 weeks ago she gave similar commitments to Kevin Rudd (someone she knows personally very well and has worked closely with for a number of years)had a deal with him and promised HIM that his future was safe in her hands. Those commitments, that deal and promise lasted less than the time it takes to make a phone call.

    Why would anyone have FAITH in that?

  46. Husky Jim says:

    That italics all worked wrong. Sorry Iain

    I only wanted ” would win” in italics.

    Would you mind?

  47. Iain Hall says:

    Fixed Jim 🙂

  48. Husky Jim says:

    Ta.

  49. Ray Dixon says:

    You’re splitting straws HJ. When I said Rudd “would win” I clearly meant that his party would win. If I said “Riewoldt will lead St Kilda to the flag this year” the underlying and predominant prediction is that the team will win, not the player.

    If you bring it up again I’ll just ignore you. Geezus Christ you’re painful.

  50. Husky Jim says:

    If we were discussing Riewoldt ability to play and his ability to lead and you made that prediction then what the team did would be irrelevent. But we were not discussing the team’s performance were we?

    Rudd’s not missing because he’s done a hamstring like Riewoldt did Ray.
    (BTW the Pies kicked your a**es even WITH Riewoldt playing)
    The match committee have bowed to the will of the major sponsor and sacked the captain.

    Your defence of Rudd was not in response to his TEAM’S performance, but in response to criticism of HIS performance and you were actually quite addament that he’d win the election. Your prediction was WRONG. It happens.

  51. Craigy says:

    Two points.

    The ALP will win (if they don’t shoot themselves in the foot), because Abbott is unelectable and screws up every time they let him off his lead.

    The Rudd Government kept the economy on track while stuffing up just about everything else BUT (as Iain and others avoid) the Liberal Party did the same thing when in Government, did well on the economy and stuffed up everything else. Think Tampa, MUA dispute, War in Iraq, re-election and succession….etc etc… People (other than Libs supporters) have good memories.

  52. Ray Dixon says:

    Craigy, pretty much spot on.

    HJ: _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

    (Btw, I think Collingwood played the perfect game on Sarurday and will finish on top and will make the GF. Then it’s anyone’s guess. I’m not sure if the Saints can get there but if they do …. watch out)

  53. Husky Jim says:

    The difference being that the ALP have spent all the money in the piggy bank and borrowed against the value of the house to keep the economy on track. It’s a false economy on a rickety track.
    In a micro economic sense it is like losing your job and then using your savings and then your credit card to pay the bills. For a time that may work, but not indefinately. Add to that that they used the credit to purchase a series of pigs in a series of pokes. In other words they kept the economy afloat by throwwing millions of extra dollars where they should have thrown rather less.

    Ray
    I agree, but there’s a lit of water to pass under the bridge between now and GF day and only one thing is for certain.
    Whoever wins the cup this year will have to beat Collingwood, Geelong and / or St Kilda to do it. I find that a comfort in July.

  54. Iain Hall says:

    Rather like the lead up to the Grand final there is a log way to go before the full time siren so I will not be calling this election ether way until then. But I agree with Jim that the ALP have been far worse than the Howard government when it comes to the way that they have run things and people in the swing seats in NSW and Queensland will care about good governance more that you Victorians seem to do.
    Another factor up here is that we had the privilege of having the first woman elected as premier in her own right and she promptly decided to privatize public assets even though she promised not to do such a thing before the election. So we are very aware that there is no honour or integrity to be found in the ALP. Likewise in NSW you could not fid a more despised government even though it has a personally popular female leader.
    So to sum up Gillard certainly has the “first female PM” thing going for her but there is also a HUGE amount of smelly baggage around the ALP and that will not be forgotten by the voters that count in the seats that will decide this election.

  55. Husky Jim says:

    And you can bet that a promise from Gillard lasts only as long as it takes a faction leader takes to call her and change it. AS KRUDD.

  56. Ray Dixon says:

    It shouldn’t be the case but one thing that might tip this for Gillard is the female vote. I think you’ll find the undecided females will (understandably) want a woman to be given more than 2 months in the job. That and Abbott himself.

  57. Iain Hall says:

    I’ve met a few women who say “its good to see a woman as PM BUT…..” I really doubt that the gender thing will be as much of a vote winner for Gillard as some have been suggesting .

  58. lynot says:

    “I’ve met a few women who say “its good to see a woman as PM BUT…..”

    If only Abbott was a women? he he.

    Iain if they’re not going to vote for her because she’s a women,I guess the plebes will vote for Abbott because he is a man, well that’s what they tell us anyways.

    Another day nearly over in the election campaign and Tony has approx 12 hours to put his foot in it again, Bets?

  59. Iain Hall says:

    Lynot
    As we have discussed before nothing short of the hand of God is likely to change your voting intentions but you can’t escape the fact that this election will not be decided in the electorates of WA or for that matter Victoria it will be decided by voters here in Queensland and NSW
    and then right on cue we discover this which is just intime to remind the voters what a total failure Gillard’s attempt to steal coalition policy has been…

  60. Craigy says:

    Oh and I forgot to add to my list of Howard Government failures ‘Workchoices’ the gift that just keeps giving……It has given JGIL her first win over a stumbling Abbott.

    I think your ‘Gilding the Lilly’ Iain when it comes to who made the biggest fuck ups, you don‘t get much bigger than going to war, how many billions has that cost us again?

    HJ – how much would you have advised the Government to spend on stimulus or did you like Turnbull’s tax cuts idea?

  61. Craigy says:

    Oh and sorry, it wasn’t bipartisan…..I am not having a good day.

  62. Iain Hall says:

    Yes Yurgen
    and the Oz reports this about the shop owner:

    “I think that could be done a little bit better,” Mr Tran said.

    “But I sort of understand where he’s coming from – you don’t want an influx of people who aren’t suitable.”
    […]
    Mr Tran has managed his Fruit Land store for the last seven years and says he is inclined to vote Liberal at the coming election because of their record on economic management.

  63. Craigy says:

    It should have been…

    HJ – how much would you have advised the Government to spend on stimulus or did you like Turnbull’s tax cuts idea?

  64. lynot says:

    “As we have discussed before nothing short of the hand of God is likely to change your voting intentions”

    Oh I don’t know Iain a frontal lobotomy might help.I may take some drugs, you know the ones? the ones that most conservatives take. 🙂 I might die and be reincarnated as a possible love child of Abbott, or possibly a donkey, that may help change my vote.Just possibly I could be up for a bribe, but that would mean leaving the country.I mean, how could I face my friends?

    No sorry Iain its Green for me, although Gillard is tempting that red hair just does it for me.

  65. Yurgen says:

    Iain the point is not how he votes, its that he is a successful business man, but based on the fact he was an “illegal immigrant” you and your mates here wouldnt let him into the country!

  66. Yurgen says:

    Or are you saying we shouldnt have let him in because he is a liberal voter?

  67. Husky Jim says:

    Craigy I don’t mind the stimulus package amount that they have. It isn’t how much, but how that’s the issue. I would have built some infrastructure that will last 100 years. I would have built dams, roads, airports, bridges where they are needed, bike paths and so on. Not burned down homes and built 600k chook sheds.

  68. Iain Hall says:

    NO Yurgan the point is not what you think it is but that even someone who was himself a refugee agrees that we have a right to decide who comes here and that Labor’s economic mismanagement is more of a vote decider for him.

    This is a message that will count and no matter how much you all think that Tony is not the perfect political performer, this country just can not afford another three years of mismanagement on the level that we have seen over the last three.

  69. Craigy says:

    Mistakes were made HJ, but that doesn’t mean the money was ‘wasted’ as is spun in the Ad that Iain likes.

    It’s funny how the Abbott supporters are so quick to cry SPIN when it comes from the ALP but are completely blind when it comes from their own side.

    And Iain, you seem incapable of excepting that both sides mismanaged, that’s why Howard lost not only the election but his seat. At least JGIL is running a positive campagin, this negative whinging from the Libs won’t win them any friends.

    I’m afraid that the fear and smear campaign being run by Tony Abbott will end in tears for him.

  70. Iain Hall says:

    Oh that’s rubbish Craigy!

    The ALP are totally running a negative campaign that just tries to ignore their own incompetence in favour harking back to the glory-days of 2007!!!
    The only thing that they are positive about is hiding their own mismanagement

  71. Husky_Jim says:

    Mistakes were made Craig. Mistakes that saw BILLIONS spent where hundreds of millions would have done and which saw nothing except economic stability achieved.
    It’s not spin to acknowledge that that is wasted expenditure.

  72. Ray Dixon says:

    Speaking of ads, best one yet (although I’m disappointed they used an earlier image of Sophie as Wednesday; if they’d used a current one she could have been Uncle Fester):

  73. Iain Hall says:

    Yes I’ve seen that Ray but did you notice the spelling mistake in their subtitles?
    Brownie points if you can pick it 😉

  74. Craigy says:

    “It’s not spin to acknowledge that that is wasted expenditure.”

    No but it is spin to pretend that Abbott would be any better given the huge waste of money the occurred under Howard. How much infrastructure was built under Howard? How many Billions have we wasted on a failed war undertaken on a lie?

    Look I think Rudd was shit and the ALP are a bunch of …well…politicians. But to pretend that the Howard Government was any better is just plain partisan spin.

    Why do you think they got chucked out and the PM lost his seat…..hmmmm??
    And with all the shrill ‘Rudd was the worst ever’ we get from the welded on Lib supporters, the conservatives are still going to lose this election.

    Keep on spinning though boys, I look forward to you eating those words after August 21.

  75. Yurgen says:

    I admire Iains optimism that Abbott will be elected as PM, even if it is unrealistic.

  76. Husky Jim says:

    They got chucked our because they dared to threaten the unions’ power on IR and the unions pumped untold millions into scare campaigns that worked and the PM lost his seat because of that and a redistribution that saw the demographic of the seat change.
    They also lost because the bloke in the driver seat didn’t want the co-pilot to have a go and the co-pilot was too loyal, and maybe too timid to kick him out.

    That said there’s no way that they would have spent 600 k on a bike shed in a school.
    According to the report for the Business Council, Groundwork for Growth, by Port Jackson Partners, only 14 per cent of the $76 billion it regards as stimulus spending was on infrastructure. That actually overstates the real amount since it includes all those unnecessary school assembly halls, welfare housing, pink batts, “clean” energy and other expensive low productivity expenditures that are oriented towards the ballot box rather than economic efficiency. And given that Howard Government identified most of the the spending priorities for which even Rudd eventually cut the ribbons, it’s nothing but spin to suggest that the Howard government spent nothing on infrastructure.

    And most of the shrill ‘Rudd was the worst ever’ is coming from the ALP. Gillard was very keen to suggest that she’ll go to Rudd’s electorate to campaign, but I bet it’s a fleeting visit and I bet you never see him on 7:30 or late line.

  77. Craigy says:

    Yes Yurgen, but we should go easy on Iain, most of the stuff conservatives have been banging on about over the last few years is turning pear shaped on them.

    I mean, the conservatives in the UK have gone into partenership with leftists and it is working, same in Tassie.

    The AGW email ‘scam’ has now been found to have nothing to do with the science, which has been found to be sound.

    And the ‘worst Government in history’ is about to be re-elected.

    It must be hard to keep up the fight, so don’t be to hard on Iain. He aint all bad.

  78. Iain Hall says:

    Craigy
    You are rather good at gilding the lily aren’t you?

    Yes Yurgen, but we should go easy on Iain, most of the stuff conservatives have been banging on about over the last few years is turning pear shaped on them.

    This is you trying the “if I say something with enough conviction that will make it so” gambit 🙄

    I mean, the conservatives in the UK have gone into partnership with leftists and it is working, same in Tassie.

    In the UK the Torries share with the Lib Dems a desire to clean up the absolute mess made by Labour who will be in the political wilderness for a very long time not an entirely bad result in my book, and In Tassie its Labor who went back on their word to cede the treasury benches so that they could form a coalition with the Greens…

    The AGW email ‘scam’ has now been found to have nothing to do with the science, which has been found to be sound

    WRONG!!!!.
    The enquiries has very pointedly not been about the science they have not exactly been exonerated

    And the ‘worst Government in history’ is about to be re-elected.

    Well I just hope that you have not been as silly as Lynot and bet real money on the result because this is far from certain 😉

    It must be hard to keep up the fight, so don’t be to hard on Iain. He aint all bad.

    Well I’ll take what ever praise you wish to offer Craigy but I can tell you that I enjoy this stuff win lose or draw its just a bit of fun 🙂

  79. Craigy says:

    Yes Iain and I love your response….. It gave me a laugh…it IS fun this is.

    It must seem strange to you though, given you see leftists as stupid and evil, that so many conservatives are happy to have them in Government, maybe Tony should have tried a bit harder to get on with Bob, except his religion thinks gays are bad so that couldn’t happen I guess. Oh and the ALP in Tassie ARE conservatives.

    The commission, chaired by a Scottish university administrator, was the latest to find no evidence that researchers embroiled in the “Climate-gate” scandal had violated academic standards. After examining e-mails and research from the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit, the commission said, “we find that their rigor and honesty as scientists are not in doubt.”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/07/AR2010070705001.html

    And as for the winner in 4 weeks, the ALP is TEN POINTS IN FRONT on two party basis (Newspoll). Unless the ALP shoots that foot with that gun, they will romp this in.

    You must be worried Iain, I don’t think the debate will help Abbott with his foot in mouth problems and that is probably his last chance to catch up.

    Good luck with your prediction……and please enjoy the Greens holding the balance, I know we will all find it lots of fun.

  80. Iain Hall says:

    Craigy

    Yes Iain and I love your response….. It gave me a laugh…it IS fun this is.

    Well I just hope that your good humour helps you get over the nail biting on the evening of the 21st 😉

    It must seem strange to you though, given you see leftists as stupid and evil, that so many conservatives are happy to have them in Government, maybe Tony should have tried a bit harder to get on with Bob, except his religion thinks gays are bad so that couldn’t happen I guess. Oh and the ALP in Tassie ARE conservatives.

    Tony has said several times that he does not “hate” Gays and that he he endorsed the reforms to remove discrimination against them so perhaps the time has come for you to stop dragging out the straw-man argument that Tony is some sort of papal puppet unable to take from his religious tradition the elements of the faith that are consistent with his own personal philosophy and sense of what is right and wrong.

    Cite what ever you like Craigy it does not negate the fact that The CRU has been humbled by the scandal and that science will have to be done differently thanks to the work of the whistle blower and dedicated Bloggers like Steve Macintyre

    And as for the winner in 4 weeks, the ALP is TEN POINTS IN FRONT on two party basis (Newspoll). Unless the ALP shoots that foot with that gun, they will romp this in.

    All I can remind you off Craigy is that eggs are not chickens until they actually hatch

    You must be worried Iain, I don’t think the debate will help Abbott with his foot in mouth problems and that is probably his last chance to catch up.

    We shall see Tony will do better than you think

    Good luck with your prediction……and please enjoy the Greens holding the balance, I know we will all find it lots of fun.

    There you go again counting eggs as chickens but you are dead wrong about one thing which is the bit about “my prediction”. I have made no prediction. I have said that I want the coalition to win , that I think that they would be a better government but I have definitely not said that it is any sort of done deal. You see I have learn that when it comes to elections it is far better to expect the worst (a Gillard win) but hope for the best (an Abbott victory). As for the Greens holding the balance of power I would not bet on that happening either you just never know how many of those eggs will actually hatch…

  81. Iain Hall says:

    One more thing I think that you should listen to this Pod cast Craigy 🙂

  82. Craigy says:

    Will do.

    I’m not 100% on the election outcome Iain….it could be different.

    I just think with the polls showing what they do, at this stage, an ALP win and Greens having the balance, Tony has all the work to do. I can’t see him becoming more popular on his own.

    We all know Tony as he was in the Howard Government and he will find it hard to shake off comments like he is ‘threatened by gay people’ and thinks AGW is ‘crap’. It might play well to the small group of wingnuts who love this stuff but is poison to the rest of us.

    Historically, a 10 point gap this close to an election is very hard to make up. And an ALP win is about 100% handing the balance to the Greens given the deal they have made. Still, stay positive mate, you never know!

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