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“0.0001 Nobel laureate”

Saturday is the day that I take my daughter to her Gymnastic class and I usually spend the two hours having a leisurely breakfast (out for a change) and read the one paper a week that I buy rather than read off the net. It will surprise no one at all that when you read the actual paper rather than it’s electronic version there are often little pieces that you would possibly not notice. The piece I quote below is one such piece a very interesting comment on the IPPC and “climate change” from one of those who has contributed to it’s reports.

There are some of us who remain so humbled by the task of measuring and understanding the extraordinarily complex climate system that we are sceptical of our ability to know what it is doing and why. As we build climate data sets from scratch and look into the guts of the climate system, however, we don’t find the alarmist theory matching observations.

(The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellite data we analyse at the University of Alabama in Huntsville does show modest warming: about 1.4C a century, if warming trends of 0.14C a decade continue.)

It is my turn to cringe when I hear overstated confidence from those who describe the projected evolution of global weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially when I consider how difficult it is to accurately predict that system’s behaviour over the next five days.

Mother Nature simply operates at a level of complexity that is, at this point, beyond the mastery of mere mortals (such as scientists) and the tools available to us. As my high-school physics teacher admonished us in those we-shall-conquer-the-world-with-a-slide-rule days, “Begin all of your scientific pronouncements with ‘At our present level of ignorance, we think we know’.”

I haven’t seen that type of climate humility lately. Rather, I see jump-to-conclusions advocates and, unfortunately, some scientists who see in every weather anomaly the spectre of a global warming apocalypse. Explaining each successive phenomenon as a result of human action gives them comfort and an easy answer.

Some of us scratch our heads and try to understand the real causes behind what we see. We discount the possibility that everything is caused by human actions, because everything we’ve seen the climate do has happened before.

Sea levels rise and fall continually. The Arctic icecap has shrunk before. One millennium there are hippos swimming in the Thames, and a geological blink later there is an ice bridge linking Asia and North America.

One of the challenges in studying global climate is keeping a global perspective, especially when much of the research focuses on data gathered from spots across the globe. Often observations from one region get more attention than equally valid data from another.


How delightful it is to hear some one from within the IPPC saying what we sensible sceptics have been saying for a very long time. If you are a true believer please read the source document and the explain just where it is wrong in the way that it is argued. Sadly it seems to me that the doom and gloom merchants hold sway on both sides of the political spectrum and they seem determined to both take extraordinary measures “ solving “ a problem that is very likely not to exist at all. The problem with this is that the “Cure” seems very likely to be worse than the psychosomatic disease of AGW.

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