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Dancing shoes Labor leadership style

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I can’t help but think that this is the absolute end for the Labor party and while it still exits and still holds government that is a a strictly temporary phenomena that is becoming ever more insubstantial. The media is a buzz with speculation that Rudd will make his run and that desperate Labor MPs will swallow their pride and embrace the leader that they loathe. and at present it all hinges on the nerve of Bill Shorten:

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I don’t know, there is a big part of me that thinks that Shorten won’t back Rudd, even if it means that some party seats could be saved because in the longer term if Rudd were able to save any seats that Shorten’s  own personal ambitions could be very seriously stymied as Rudd could then continue as opposition leader for a rather long time.    No I still think that the party should and will stick with Gillard to the very bitter end because they know that changing back to Rudd without both substantive shifts in their more  stupid policies and enough time to make them viable  or even just credible  will not save  enough of the furniture to counteract the humiliation of another leadership change. They will look like and be a desperate rabble fighting for places on the very few life boats that remain. The whole thing reminds me of a game of musical chairs  where the  number of chairs is going from seventy to about 25 in one fell swoop the music may still be playing, the dancers are hoping desperately to make it to the desired chair…

Next stop for Labor is …

Oblivion…

And you what the worst thing is ?

They have done it to themselves with one act of stupidity, arrogance and hubris after  over the last six years  and now they are finished for a generation at least and maybe they will die out entirely, who knows, they certainly have no idea at all about the needs of this country for first and foremost sound governance and a steady hand on the tiller. Grand ideas have to take second place to that no matter who is in power which is something that I  think Tony Abbott  understands and why I have more faith in the conservatives to deliver what this country needs.  Labor  will lose the election badly under either Rudd or Gillard and I really doubt that the difference in seats saved by the second coming of Kevin will be enough to matter.

Cheers Comrades

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The all singing all dancing Kevin Rudd won’t save Labor no matter how flashy his moves are.

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33 Comments

  1. Tony says:

    What happens classically when there is a leadership change ?

    Inevitably there is a poll bounce isn’t there ? I think the above ratio of 58:42 is somewhat generous, to say the least. I guess this ratio, is spread over all electorates, safe labor seats included ? That ratio, however, does not reflect the massive amount of seats, that require only a small swing to change hands. There are a vast majority of those. That is where the supposed decimation will occur. The Australian suggests that figure could be nearly two dozen ?

    Newspoll puts the ALP’s two-party-preferred vote at 44 per cent, down six points on the 2010 results.

    A uniform swing of this size would see Wayne Swan and as many as two dozen other Labor MPs lose their seats.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/swing-suggests-up-to-two-dozen-labor-mps-will-lose-seats/story-fn59niix-1226581475194

    An important point to note, is the above poll is based on a voting pattern/ratio of 56/44 not the latest figure of the above 58:42 and still falling ? So that makes the the “two dozen” loss somewhat optimistic to say the least ?

    Political history would dictate, that if Rudd, and really Labor are to survive, his challenge should be just before the main/serious campaign gets into gear. I would expect a challenge, if any, to occur towards the end of next month. That would give the new candidate, whether Rudd or Shorten (believe me he has his eyes on the job as well !), time to take advantage of that poll bounce to get Labor over the line.

    I don’t honestly think that any traditional poll bounce will get the Labor Party anywhere near the line of victory, let alone over it ?

  2. Ray Dixon says:

    The more they deny it (that Rudd will be reinstated) the more likely it looks. I’d say it might happen next week, when Parliament resumes for its last sitting before the election. It’s the last opportunity. Then it’d be up to Rudd to decide on the election date and I’d suggest he’d bring it forward to sometime in August, to cash-in on the ‘bounce’. It won’t win the election for him but it’ll reduce the loss.

    But for “it” to happen, someone needs to give Bill Shorten a serious kick up the arse and remind him that it was Shorten himself who played no small part in bringing us Gillard as PM … and that if he doesn’t now help to remove her, he shares the blame for the massive wipeout she’s leading them to on September 14.

  3. Ray Dixon says:

    But as for this, Iain:

    they are finished for a generation at least and maybe they will die out entirely, who knows, they certainly have no idea at all about the needs of this country for first and foremost sound governance and a steady hand on the tiller. Grand ideas have to take second place to that no matter who is in power which is something that I think Tony Abbott understands and why I have more faith in the conservatives to deliver what this country needs.

    A generation at least? Twenty years or so? Give me a break, mate – things can change in politics very quickly. As for Abbott, he has no “ideas” at all so how can he “deliver” anything? You’re barracking and being one-eyed, Iain. You’re wearing the Joffa jacket again.

  4. Tony says:

    Bill Shorten huh ? I think he won’t commit himself until the day of the spill, and that vote won’t be for Rudd. Everyone knows, that if Rudd gets up, then Bill Shorten’s aspirations for the number one job pretty well vaporise immediately. They only hope he has for the number one job, is if Rudd stays out, and Gillard either gets trounced at the election, or she resigns before the election.

    As for a generation, I agree with Ray.
    This is not the Menzies era, or even the early Howard years. The electorate is more politically literate these days, and “swing” a lot more easily, losing their patience a lot quicker, than in our parents day. Two, maybe three terms, unless they get too greedy too quickly, is all the electorate will withstand nowadays. Twenty or so, is optimistic at best ?

    For Labor to survive, they need a big broom to sweep out all the old, and dead wood. It needs new, younger talent to guide it. The party needs to distance itself from its traditional union base, and to be seen as being totally independent of that base. To get away from its classic “job for the boys” history ? Other than electorate oblivion, there is no way these old labor narcissists will retire. It’s all about ego enhancement, rather than loyalty to party, above all else ?

    I honestly can’t see them doing that, until the writing’s on the wall ?
    Can anyone else ?

  5. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    Engage rant mode:

    I see the crisis with Labor being at least as serious as it was after the DLP split and it took then more than twenty years to get over that. They have to totally reinvent themselves and the way the party is organised. Essentially they have to have some broader appeal because their union base is ever more irrelevant, as is their Marxist socialist ideology. We no longer live in a proletarian age where you can convincingly frame the debate in terms of “workers and Bosses” it just does not work when there are so many people working as independent contractors or more skilled professions. You are always keen to argue that Abbott is a man of the fifties but the entire Labor party is utterly steeped in the politics of the nineteenth century and that is why they fail now in the twenty-first century.

    As I say in the passage you quote the bottom line for any government being adequate boils down to good management just as you have to manage a business well for it to succeed you have to manage the administration of government well and Labor has spent to much time and effort constantly reinventing the wheel which has resulted in a virtual storm of babies being thrown out with the bathwater.
    Rant over!

  6. GD says:

    Well ranted, Iain :)

  7. Ray Dixon says:

    Nah, the ALP could easily “reinvent” itself very quickly, Iain. It just takes the right leader. And I’m sure they will.

    Mind you, the Liberals haven’t “reinvented” themselves at all, and it’ll prove to be the case when they return to govt and say … WTF do we do now?

  8. Tony says:

    WTF do we do now?

    Sorry Ray, but with a debt, supposedly around the $200 mark, and climbing at an alarming rate, day to day, the libs when they get government, won’t be able to say much else ? ;)

  9. Iain Hall says:

    Ray
    I know that things can quickly turn around in politics but for Labor to rise again people will have to forget or forgive them all of their lies sins and mistakes and that will take time and the exit from politics of all of the crew that have laid them so low over the last six years, that will take time and unless Abbott utterly stuffs up he will have at least three terms before Labor is even back in the race and if they fail to learn the lesson of this period in government Abbott could easily look to match Menzies record as PM.

  10. GD says:

    the ALP could easily “reinvent” itself very quickly

    Given that the Labor Party is beholden to the unions, I don’t see any easy ‘reinventing’, unless Labor goes ‘back to the future’ and re-adopts the Hawke government’s industrial relations policy.

    Labor is union-run, union controlled, at a time when union membership is at an all time low. At the same time the upper echelon of the Labor Party is focused on gender issues, useless green schemes and censorship of the media.

    Hardly a winning combination for the average voter.

  11. Tony says:

    You are certainly right GD, but, to the average voter, the three issues that you focused on, are of little interest to the mug voter. Gender maybe, but in the long run, the voter is only interested in what they can, individually, get out of a new government, and the main issue, is how much it is going to cost them ?
    With a debt, arguably at, or now above, the $200b mark, (forgot the b above ?), there will be little in the war chest to either promise, nor deliver anything, for many years to come. For both sides.

    On that basis, it is going to be a boring campaign, based on Labor’s mistakes, and there were/are a bloody lot of those ?

  12. Ray Dixon says:

    unless Abbott utterly stuffs up he will have at least three terms before Labor is even back in the race and if they fail to learn the lesson of this period in government Abbott could easily look to match Menzies record as PM

    Iain, whatever painkillers you’re presently taking for your bad back, you need to get off it mate. Abbott will be lucky to last one term before his own party turns on him.

  13. Richard Ryan says:

    I hate to break the bad news—— voters are not that silly, imagine this Rhodes Scholar with the John Wayne swagger, roaming around the world, we would be the laughing stock of the Universe, someone should have taken to him with a baseball bat, during his Uni thug days, I repeat again, Abbott will never be leader of this continent.

  14. Iain Hall says:

    You can’t cut back on the steady flow of medication from morphine patches that I’m on Ray. That said it was not my medication speaking in that last comment it was me in “soothsayer mode” and while I could be totally wrong I just don’t see Abbott doing a Rudd insofar as him promising to be one sort of leader(remember Rudd’s claims that he would be a “fiscal conservative” in government, and then his total panic at the first big economic scare?) and then doing a complete about face when he is in the lodge.
    I suspect that an Abbott government is going to be rather dull, plodding even, but after the roller coaster ride under both Rudd and Gillard I think that I can be “relaxed and comfortable” with a government that puts sound administration at the top of the list rather than it being an annoying after thought to which the government has only paid lip service to or ignored as it has been under both Rudd and Gillard.

  15. Tony says:

    Ray, your personal shot at Iain, and his ailment is below the belt, reprehensible, and totally uncalled for.
    Just because you are arguing from a weak position, does not give you carte blanche, to personally attack the commenter. Man that was low :(

    Ray, as well as the internet’s resident oracle, RR, forget one thing.

    We are not voting for a Queen, nor a president.
    We are not under a dictatorship ?
    Parliament in this country is proportionally representative or our population, and our leaders, good or bad, are chosen from the pool available.

    Regardless of who leads the libs, after they win the next election, the voter will vote Liberal, not Abbott, nor Gillard. We vote for a party, even though leading personalities often influence that vote. This one especially, as we will all be reminded of how Gillard knifed, a seemingly, popular leader and Prime Minister ?

    The leader does, however, have grand sway, as they are the prime focus of all media’s attention. So, personality, charisma, and envisaged competence is a massive incentive, to how the swinging voter “swings” ? In our current situation, Abbott, no matter how incompetent he seems to be portraying, as well as having the charisma of a dirty sock, could not possibly be any worse than Gillard ? That will be the main issue of the upcoming campaign, and quite rightly so !

    Using that as a guide, the Liberals could put up Ghengis Khan, and still win in a stride, and will, regardless of you labor diehards protestations, govern in their own right. No useless greedy greens, that just suck up to their masters in coalition, because they love the thought of having a chair at the adult’s table ? Thank god that will stop.

    BTW Ray, your personal shot at Iain, and his ailment is below the belt, reprehensible, and totally uncalled for. Just because you are arguing from a weak position, does not give you carte blanche to personally attack the commenter.

  16. Iain Hall says:

    Tony I am not at all offended by Rays dig at me and my medication , personally I have a rather dark self deprecating gallows humour about may chronic pain condition and I make the sort of jokes about my condition and my medication as Ray does.

  17. Richard Ryan says:

    Tony what disease have you got? not that I care. If brains were taxed, you would be due for a rebate—-you imbecile. Stop sucking up to Iain .

  18. Tony says:

    I think the psychs call it “reality” RR.
    Ever tried it ? ;)

  19. Tony says:

    Tony I am not at all offended by Rays dig at me and my medication

    Apologies Ray, I stand b*tchslapped.
    Keep on trucking ! ;)

  20. GD says:

    I repeat again, Abbott will never be leader of this continent.

    What are you going to do on Saturday evening, September 14, Richard, when Tony becomes prime minister?

  21. Tony says:

    He won’t be posting on these pages GD. At least if he has any self respect left at that point ?

  22. Richard Ryan says:

    GD and Tony—two failed abortions.

  23. GD says:

    Answer the question Richard.

  24. Richard Ryan says:

    UNLIKE you GD, I don’t have a yellow streak down my back, I will be posting under my name, before and after the election, I repeat Abbott will never be leader of this country, how many times have I got to say it.

  25. Ray Dixon says:

    Apologies accepted “Tony”. No harm done ??

  26. GD says:

    I will be posting under my name, before and after the election, I repeat Abbott will never be leader of this country, how many times have I got to say it.

    Planning something are you, Richard?

  27. Richard Ryan says:

    “Planning something are you, Richard?” YES, at the ballot box.

  28. Richard Ryan says:

    Andrew Bolt will vote Liberal, because Tony Abbott promised him a moderator for his blog, if he becomes leader.

  29. Tony says:

    Make certain you obtain a “how to vote Labor” card Richard.

    I am certain there will be a plethora to spare !

  30. Iain Hall says:

    There might be plenty of HTV cards Tony but I I wonder if the ALP will be able to muster enough of the faithful to properly man all of the booths. During the last State election they had only one teary chap for the ALP where I live and I don’t think that he will be keen to do it again for Gillard.

  31. Tony says:

    There may be a few volunteers Iain, but they will have to at least offer big money, as well as a crash helmet, and perhaps a protective suit ?

  32. Iain Hall says:

    Well I have been voting at the same booth for more than twenty years Tony and I have never seen the ALP so badly represented, they did not even have any posters up on the school fence for the Bligh election and I have NEVER seen them unable to man a booth here before. I think that they will struggle big time for Gillard.

  33. Tony says:

    I don’t think that will be a one-off scenario come election time Iain ?
    It will be a common occurrence I think.

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