At night I go to sleep with the Radio on and this morning I awoke to the sound of “The Science Show” playing an interview with Matt Ridley and I was sort of dozing until I heard this little exchange between him and host Robin Williams:
Robyn Williams: Indeed, you’re talking there about 21st-century technology and the ways in which you can increase the yield, really sophisticated science, but what about energy? You just mooted ways in which coal, oil could be made available through fossils…that’s 19th-century technology, we just burn the bloody stuff. Are you suggesting really we need to rely even further on that sort of enterprise?
Matt Ridley: Well, I certainly think we’ve got to be realistic about the degree to which we depend on these fossil fuels now. There is no way that any of the renewables can make even a dent in our dependence on fossil fuels today in the short term. Wind has been tried on a massive scale in Denmark and it hasn’t reduced their fossil fuel consumption one iota because it is so unreliable, it needs backup power et cetera, it is so sparse as a source of fuel. So solar may one day get there where it is cheap enough and effective enough that it can actually make a big difference on a large scale. And it can make a wonderful difference on a small local scale. I’m all for having a wind pump in your back garden or a solar powered refrigerator in the Third World, but we do need these fossil fuel jewels otherwise living standards would crash.
The question is can we get better at burning them? Yes, we can. We are now up to 40% to 60% efficiency in turning coal into electricity, whereas when we started we were down in 1% or 2% or 3%. You know, the Newcomen engine installed in coal mines near where I’m sitting, by one of my ancestors interestingly in the early 18th century, had 1% efficiency. So we are getting better and better at getting more bangs for each buck in that sense. And we are shifting from wood to coal to oil to gas.
If you look at the average mix of the world fuel, that is the way it has gone; it was dominated by wood, then it was dominated by coal, then it was dominated by oil, and it’s increasingly dominated by gas. That is the shift from high carbon to low carbon for fossil fuels. Gas is CH4, four hydrogens for every carbon. Coal is about two carbons for every hydrogen, oil is about one to one, so you see what I mean. If we’re going to have a huge gas dash, which I think we are because of shale gas which has transformed the picture in the United States, Eastern Europe and it looks like China too, then we’re going to have a much lower carbon economy just out of that. It’s still going to be producing some carbon but if we gradually build up nuclear, by mid century, extrapolate the line, we’ll be burning very little carbon by 2060.
Robyn Williams: So that brings us quite naturally to the question of climate. I won’t invite you to spend the next hour swapping arguments about whether climate is or is not changing and what the evidence might be. We’re both science journalists and we both get briefed by academies, by groups of leading scientists who have looked at the vast area, and I don’t mean just the IPCC, I mean much bigger than that, and so you get a feeling that there is a kind of 60% to 70% concern. Nothing is absolute, nothing is zero, nothing is 100% in science, as we know. So looking at that kind of caveat, how do you see us developing, optimistically if you like, during this century and still avoiding really stuffing up the planet in a way that both of us would assume is a terrible prospect?
Matt Ridley: The first thing I should say is that I’ve lost some of my respect for those kind of consensus arguments since covering the acid rain story in particular, since covering a lot of the environmental scares, swine flu, everything. Acid rain in particular turned out to be, in terms of its effect on forests in Europe and North America…lakes and things are a different point to some extent…but forests; hugely, hugely exaggerated. And I should have taken that kind of story with a much bigger pinch of salt than I did when I was covering it in the 1980s as a science journalist. So I come to the climate debate now just a little chastened by that and saying well, okay, you say this is scary, show me the evidence. And I keep getting shown evidence that does not scare me. I keep getting shown evidence that carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, yes, that we are increasing it, yes, that there will therefore be net warming, yes, but that the positive feedbacks on top of that that are being assumed, there is no evidence for them. So I think we are looking at, certainly for the next few decades, just what we’ve had in the last few decades, which is a mild and gradual warming that will not do catastrophic harm either to human beings or to biodiversity, in fact probably the reverse.
Let me give you one small example. It may seem plucked out of the air but it’s an example of the kind of thing that I am reading and seeing, which is a paper in Science this year about the Greenland ice cap based on a wonderful new pair of satellites called the GRACE satellites which fly over Greenland I don’t know how many times a day or an hour or a year or something, and they weigh Greenland every time they go over it because of the gravitational attraction of it. It’s a really brilliant design. So they’ve got an estimate over the last six years of how much Greenland weighs and how much that weight is changing. That enables them to calculate how much ice it’s losing.
Science published this paper saying that over the last six years it looks like Greenland has been losing 200 cubic miles of ice per year, and they say in the paper this is a worrying number and it’s worse than we thought. And I thought wow, that is a big number. And then I went on some blogs and I found out how much ice there is in Greenland and the answer is between two and five million (nobody is quite sure) cubic miles of ice. The point is that Greenland is therefore losing one half of 1% of its ice per century under these calculations. How can that possibly be described as either a worrying trend or worse than we thought? And it’s based only on six years. If I told you that the temperature in Sydney had gone up in summer by 0.05 degrees per century, you would say come on, that’s nothing to worry about. So the fact was right, I’m sure Greenland is losing 200 cubic kilometres of ice a year, but put it in context, and that paper didn’t do that, and it should have done and I think that’s pretty disgraceful.
Robyn Williams: Is just so happens that two or three weeks ago the Australian Academy of Science, after an enormous amount of time, summarised the arguments and the questions and gave a prognosis, and here yet again was a verdict that seemed to be generally worrying, where you wouldn’t necessarily say okay, we’re going to be fine, let’s hope. In other words, it’s the kind of thing where if you’re given a prognosis by a doctor who says, ‘Take care’, you sensibly would, you wouldn’t simply say, ‘Oh I think I’ll get away with it.’
Matt Ridley: If you look at what the IPCC is saying, on the whole it’s saying here are some small probabilities of big dangers, and I’m saying look at the world and look at those probabilities and say that means there’s quite a large probability of things being quite benign. It doesn’t mean that we should ignore the probabilities of a bigger risk but we need to weigh that against the other bad things that could go wrong, an asteroid hitting the Earth et cetera, how bad is this thing? And I am sorry, but all the evidence coming out of climate science suggests to me that we are dealing with a very small probability of a big disaster, and a very large probability of on the whole a pretty benign outcome.
So I’m not saying you do nothing, I actually think that we need to be watching the climate carefully, we need to be studying it, we need to be preparing for adaptation and mitigation, but actually by far the best way to be prepared to cope with it is to make the world richer. And meanwhile we mustn’t do harm. You mentioned a doctor, well, the Hippocratic oath says do no harm, and the first thing we did in the name of climate change was rush around and encourage biofuels, and that led to starvation, food riots and crises across the world, it led to the destruction of Southeast Asian rainforest where orang-utans live to provide biodiesel to the European market et cetera. So we may find we’re ending up putting a tourniquet around our neck to prevent a nose bleed.
What I loved about the interview is that for once Williams was not in his usual full on panic mode about climate and that Ridley is giving us all reasons to ignore the more outlandish predictions about our future . Please listen to the Audio and then lets discuss reasons to be optimistic about the future of humanity.
Cheers Comrades
























